On Wednesday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen **low opening**, after a unilateral sharp fall, the three major stock indexes collectively closed in the bardo.
As of the end of **, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 103%, Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index are **141% and 136%, with a turnover of 663.6 billion, an increase of 20.9 billion from the previous trading day.
In terms of industry sectors, only coal, electricity and water have turned red, and the remaining 53 industries**, of which Internet, software services, tourism, hotel catering, and media and entertainment occupy the list of decliners.
*1219 shares, **nearly 4000 shares (3979 shares), 37 shares up, 17 shares down, median 093%, the loss effect is very obvious.
Northbound funds sold a net of 154.2 billion, with a net outflow of 322 main funds4.4 billion.
Traceability perspective: The bardo is broken, the double bottom expectation is falsified, and the downward self-reinforcement is further deepened. The weight gives up the protection disk, and the main capital irrationally smashes the diskThe market may be staging the final panic kill。Therefore, it is believed that the inertia of A-shares in the market outlook will decline, and the panic chips may usher in a "big reversal" after the volume is killed.
Let's take a look at the market details
01, no resistance unilateral **, the last "one blow"?
On the time-sharing chart, the three major stock indexes opened low, and after turning red quickly, the bulls had no resistance, and the anti-pumping highs on the time-sharing chart were lower than one another, showing a classic downward trend.
This means that yesterday and the day before yesterday, after failing to usher in a strong ** near the previous low for two consecutive days, **active funds were disheartened and also joined the army of killing and falling, and left the market with a stop loss.
At 14 o'clock in the afternoon, after the Shanghai Stock Exchange broke through the "GY line" (that is, around 2911 points), it triggered medium and long-term investors to reduce their positions to control risks, which led to an acceleration in the last hour**.
In other words, the negative self-reinforcement of the daily trend of the market, the downward trend and the downward shift of the center of gravity has been strengthened again in today's unilateral **.
Although there is a significant increase in the acceleration of the end of the market, it is not enough to panic. It is expected that there may be a final "blow" of "panic" in the market outlook, and it will be able to usher in a turnaround.
02. The transaction continues to shrink, which can be expected, but there is a lack of opportunities
Today, the turnover of the two cities is about 663.6 billion, with a turnover of less than 800 billion for 8 consecutive trading days and less than 700 billion for two consecutive trading days.
Realistically, this amount of energy can certainly be judged as bearish exhaustion.
After all, year-to-date, Wind All A's turnover is less than the latest more than 650 billion only 4 times, respectively on January 18 and September 19 and September 21, and these 4 trading days have ushered in a good **.
Coupled with the extremely low valuation of the two cities, the absolute point is below 3000, and the GEM is around 1800, and theoretically violence may occur at any time.
But the problem of the market now is that the bulls do not have "bullets" in their hands, and the market also lacks a strong "opportunity".
The insiders "pretended to be dead" and lay flat, and the potential bulls outside the field were taken turns by various bearish remarks, and they did not dare to enter the market to pick up the chips of "bringing xue".
For this situation, Tracing the source feels that the only way to do this is to strengthen the belief and implement the strategy of "boiling". As for the current position, what stop loss and cutting meat are all "P words", and if you lose 350% at every turn, no one can do it.
The industry turned red, nearly 4,000 shares**, the emotional freezing point, how far is **?
In the industry, only coal, electricity and water have turned red today, and the rest **. The commonality of these three plates is related to the national economy and people's livelihood, which is of a rigid demand and defensive nature.
This also means that no matter whether it was a disk protection that did not fall before, or because of the slight decline due to the news stimulus, or the plates that did not fall much as a whole after the first wave of overfall, now they all fall again.
In other words, now is the last fall of the bear market, all the sectors have fallen, and even ultra-overfalling, then the "spring" may not be far away.
*The evidence is more abundant, with nearly 4,000 shares floating green in the two cities, with a median of **094%。
04. What is the reason for the unilateral non-resistance downward?
The reason why today's market has no unilateral resistance** is that in addition to the negative self-reinforcement of the market mentioned above, these three negative disturbance factors may be the culprits.
1. The high-quality asset "air conditioning Mao", the recent high-standard Lisi fell sharply, respectively**709% and 793%。The former drags down the entire core asset, while the latter leads to the entire automotive chain**.
The main reason for this is a share transfer agreement, which the market believes to be a "dumb move", after all, its asset quality is poor. The essence of the latter ** is to be stained with the HW concept, and the stage hype is overdone and the future performance is overdrawn.
Tracing the source, it seems that in the last 6 months, sell-side analysts have an average loss of 1932 yuan, a loss of 0732 yuan, and a profit of 0562 yuan, which is too far away.
2. The main funds continued to smash the market without a bottom line, and there was a net outflow of 322 again today4.4 billion, of which the Internet, cultural media and brokerages were sold indiscriminately.
3. The brokerage sector fills the gap, seriously dragging down the index. 7.On the 24th, when the tone was set to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence, the brokerage sector left an upward gap.
However, the source of the source believes that today's sharp fall in brokerages and the rise and fall of banks have a slight hint of accelerating to catch up with the bottom.
05, low before the bardo breakdown, how to go on Thursday?
Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index is unilateral, the day is barefoot in the shade, the system is short arrangement, and the reversal touches up to 5 days, the downward trend is as classic as a textbook, and the bears occupy an overwhelming advantage.
However, the passivation divergence of the MACD indicator continues, the RSI and KDJ indicators are oversold at low levels, the Boll support is obvious, and the short-term deviation has indeed reached the extreme.
In other words, be strategically cautious in the daily cycle, but beware of a sudden outbreak in the market.
Comprehensive analysis: Maintain the near-term view, the medium-term dimension still belongs to the time window of bottoming and grinding, and the short-term judgment is the end of the adjustment.
The article is a collation and reflection of traceable investment ideas, and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only).