Xinhua Finance and Economics, Beijing, January 10 (Reporter Yan Peng) Recently, dividend-style ETFs have bucked the trend, and high-dividend track targets such as coal and banks have also been favored by the market, and the stock prices of China Shenhua and Agricultural Bank of China have hit new highs.
Industry analysts believe that the high-dividend track has the advantages of low valuation and high dividends, and investors pay more attention to current returns in the context of continuous market adjustment. From the perspective of short-term trading congestion, high dividend dividends** have shown signs of overheating and may face adjustment pressure after the offensive.
Why are high-dividend stocks back in the spotlight?
According to the statistics of Cinda**, in the first week of the year, the net outflow of funds from various types of ETFs was 605.5 billion yuan, but the style index ETF bucked the trend with a net inflow of 200.4 billion yuan, and the products with more net inflows are all dividend-related style targets, including Huatai Pineapple Dividend Low Volatility ETF and Invesco Great Wall CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF.
The market's preference for bonus style is also evident in **. Recently, the stock prices of low-valued and high-dividend listed companies in coal, banking, petroleum and petrochemical, public utilities and other industries have bucked the trend and strengthened, successively refreshing historical and stage highs. The share price of China Shenhua, the coal leader, has risen all the way, and the intraday market value exceeded 670 billion yuan on January 5, surpassing the lithium battery leader CATL.
In fact, the high dividend strategy is not new, why has it returned to the market's attention since the end of the year and the beginning of the year?
Hu Mohan, manager of Mingze Investment, believes that the current market style bias dividend strategy is mainly due to the switching of accounting standards for insurance funds, which leads to the style characteristics of equity assets to the direction of small drawdown, small volatility and high dividends. On the one hand, public funds passively follow the position adjustment, and on the other hand, when the defensive demand rises in the case of short-term market sentiment, it will also take the initiative to adjust in this direction.
According to Guo Shiliang, an independent financial commentator, bank deposit rates have been lowered several times since last year, and in comparison, the high dividend yields of some listed companies far exceed the level of bank deposit rates in the same period. From the perspective of dividend returns, listed companies with high dividends do have greater investment attractiveness.
At present, high-growth and high-prosperity industries are relatively scarce, and it is more difficult to use the boom as an 'anchor' to win excess returns, which is the core reason why low-volatility assets with dividends continue to achieve excess returns, and then become the focus of the market. Zhang Qiyao, chief strategic analyst of Xingye**, said.
The industry is debating the sustainability of the dividend strategy
Referring to past historical experience, when the dividend low-volatility trading sentiment falls to the bottom area, the stock price may enter the stage of momentum reversal in the short term, and when the crowding is too high and the market sentiment is overheated, the stock price may be under greater pressure in the period. In the short term, can the high dividend dividend strategy be continued?
IB** estimates that as of January 5, the congestion of the low-volatility dividend index and the CSI dividend index have risen to a higher range above 1 standard deviation of the average, indicating that low-volatility dividend assets may face certain congestion pressure in the short term.
The trading congestion and panic sentiment index is an indicator that needs to be paid close attention to in the future stage of high dividends**, and the current trading congestion of the CSI Dividend Index has reached a relatively high level in the past three years, and the subsequent absolute return volatility may increase. Chen Guo, chief analyst of China Securities Construction Investment** strategy, said.
Chen Guo believes that the current performance of high dividends indicates that the market's risk appetite has declined significantly, and whether it is a defensive strategy or a high winning rate strategy, it has boosted the flow of ** funds to high dividends. After the previous market bottoming, risk appetite rebounded, and there is a high probability that coal, petroleum and petrochemical, utilities, banks and other sectors will be the core sectors of the high dividend theme.
Zhang Qiyao believes that although low-wave dividends have begun to show signs of overheating, from the perspective of ** positions, the proportion of sector allocation is still low and still in low allocation, and there is still room for further improvement.
Wang Yang, chief strategic analyst of Zheshang**, believes that combined with the analysis of the market environment, macroeconomy, and industrial profitability in 2024, high dividends still have allocation value. At a time when the current consensus expectation is strengthening, the current or short-term swing highs, and the preferred sector in terms of alpha is key.
Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan's A-share strategy, believes that the market will also be differentiated after the high dividend, and there may be adjustment pressure after the attack. When the spring window opens, there is a high probability that the market will have a new direction of attack.
Editor: Hu Chenxi.
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