Xinhua Finance Xining, January 9 (Reporter Wang Jinjin) In 2023, potash fertilizer will "rise and fall". Taking 62% potassium chloride in Qingdao port as an example, its ** amplitude will reach 1,450 yuan per ton in 2023.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the industry's best in the industry, with the continuous deepening and optimization of China's fertilizer supply guarantee policy, especially in the case of continuous improvement of import channels, the domestic potash fertilizer will remain relatively high, and the potash fertilizer market will show a "first-class trend" in 2024.
In 2023, the phenomenon of "strong supply and weak demand" in China's potash fertilizer market will be highlighted, and although the market will "hit the bottom", the center of gravity will shift significantly downward.
Specifically, in the first half of the year, the domestic potassium chloride market as a whole showed a trend of "first stabilizing and then falling", and the first inflection point appeared in March. Industry monitoring shows that as of June 30, 2023, the average market price of 62% white potassium in the port fell to 2,450 yuan ton, a decrease of 34 yuan from the high point of 1,275 yuan in January23%；Compared with the peak of the domestic potash fertilizer market in June 2022, the peak was 2,900 yuan, a decrease of 5421%。
Li Feng, a potash analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that in the first half of 2023, the demand for spring plowing and fertilizer preparation was less than expected, coupled with the increase in the supply of potash fertilizer for the China-Europe train, the potash fertilizer market "fell in volume and price". In addition, the pace of on-demand fertilizer preparation by midstream and downstream dealers has slowed down significantly, resulting in weak market performance.
On June 6, 2023, China's potash contract** was locked at US$307 tonnes, a decrease of 4797%。The determination of the potash fertilizer contract has become a turning point for China's potash fertilizer market.
Li Feng believes that the smooth signing of China's potash fertilizer contract has released two major signals for the international and domestic markets: one is to activate the enthusiasm of other countries to procure, which will help reverse the situation of sluggish global potash fertilizer purchase and sales;The second is to release the country's determination to ensure the supply of potash fertilizer, and provide psychological support for large-scale first-class merchants to maintain stability or raise prices in the later stage.
After the second half of 2023, China's potash fertilizer will begin to bottom out. Li Feng introduced that after the release of China's potash contract, the supply of goods in the bonded area began to be continuously cleared for sale, the spot volume continued to increase, and the market continued the trend of "more volume and lower price". Industry data monitoring shows that in late July 2023, the average price of 62% white potassium market in the port was 2,358 yuan ton, which became the lowest point of the year, and a decrease of 36 yuan from the peak of 1,367 yuan ton in the year7%。
Entering September, the domestic agricultural fertilizer demand was started, the autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizer enterprises was good, and the downstream continued to destock, driving the potassium fertilizer ** higher. Yan Sensheng, director of fertilizer fertilizer, said that since September 2023, fertilizer fertilizer has generally been high, and under the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, potassium chloride has experienced a slow decline for one month, and after the demand for fertilizer reserves in winter has started, it has rebounded slightly, but at the end of the year, due to high port inventories, potash fertilizer has begun to continue to fall.
According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of the end of December 2023, the average market price of 62% white potassium in China's ports was 2,883 yuan tons, which was 22 yuan lower than the low point of the year26%。"Entering the winter storage stage, the old and new sources coexist, but the downstream winter storage confidence is insufficient, and the trading continues to be sluggish, resulting in a low trend in potash fertilizer. Li Feng thinks.
Looking ahead, the industry believes that the trend of China's potash fertilizer market in 2024 will still show a "first-class situation".
In the view of Zhuochuang Information, the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be the highest point of potash fertilizer in the year. "Taking 62% white potassium in the port as an example, the peak value in January is expected to be around 2,800 yuan tons, and the low value may hover around 2,350 yuan tons, or around July. Li Feng said.
Yan Sensheng said that in 2024, high ** is still the theme of the potash fertilizer market, the high port inventory suppresses the upward movement of potash fertilizer, and under the background of food security, the demand for fertilizer agriculture is growing, but the growth rate is declining, and it is expected that the operation center of the whole year will move downward.
Editor: Wu Zhengsi.
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