Introduction: After more than 2 consecutive years of adjustment in the A** field, the overall valuation has been low, and now may be a good time to suck low, and the same is true for pension investment.
Text: Daily Financial Report Yang Yue.
The times are like an accelerating train, pushing China into a deeply aging society.
In 2021, China has officially entered a deeply aging society. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2023, the proportion of China's population aged 60 and above is as high as 211%, of which 15 are aged 65 and over4%。
The number of elderly people is increasing, but the number of newborns is declining, and in 2023, the birth rate of our population is only 639, the annual birth population insurance station is 9 million, only 9.02 million, which will directly lead to the increase in the social dependency ratio, making the pension more and more expensive in the future.
At the same time, traditional concepts such as "raising children and preventing old age" have been broken, and it has become a social consensus to prepare for the elderly in advance.
According to the latest "China Ageing Finance Survey Report 2023" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the Pension Finance 50 Forum this year, most people believe that self-reserve in advance is the most reliable way to provide for the elderly, with more than sixty percent (66.).12% of respondents believe that retirement wealth reserves should start before the age of 40, of which, 2360% of the respondents believe that they should start preparing for retirement before the age of 30.
But how do you prepare for retirement? In the new era of shrinking real estate assets, declining bank deposit rates, and wealth management products breaking the new era of wealth management, we should probably have a new answer.
The social dependency ratio is rising, and pension services are becoming more and more expensive
At the end of last year, the "2022 National Aging Development Bulletin" released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs showed that the dependency ratio of the elderly population aged 65 and above in the country has reached 218%, an increase of 9 percentage points in 10 years.
21.What is the concept of an 8% dependency ratio? To put it simply, it is about 46 young people will support 1 elderly, according to **, when China enters a severely aging society in 2050, every 1 young person will have to support 1 elderly, which means that the pressure on the elderly in the whole society will be extremely huge, after all, the increase in the elderly population will increase the country's expenditure on pensions, medical care, pension services, etc., which may cause a larger and larger funding gap, in recent years, the pension gap in the three northeastern provinces is the most direct case.
More critically, the high dependency ratio may also lead to a shortage of national labor, making pension services a "luxury".
While some may hope that robots will be able to provide elderly care in the future, which is not impossible in the era of rapid development of artificial intelligence, we also need to be prepared to pay the wages of "elderly care robots".
At the end of the day, you have to rely on yourself to retire, but most people are not prepared for this.
According to the "2023 Chinese Residents' Retirement Readiness Index Survey Report" jointly released by an insurance company and the China Insurance and Risk Management Research Center of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, due to factors such as declining income, the retirement readiness index of Chinese residents last year was "5.."53 10", which is not only significantly lower than the 5 in 20227, also hit an all-time low.
Of course, there is also a point of view that "pension freedom" is a false proposition, the pursuit of material consumption, physical condition, living habits, etc., are the key factors that determine how to achieve "pension freedom", but when there is still a choice, why push yourself to the point of losing labor and still have to cut back on food and clothing?
What's more, in today's increasingly developed medical technology, the era of 100-year-old life and longevity has become a reality, and we need to be more prepared for the elderly.
In the new era of wealth management, the layout of bargains has become the first choice for pension investment
So, what do we do?
As an ordinary person, the most basic appeal of saving a sum of money for the elderly in the account is to maintain and increase the value. According to the "report" released by the above-mentioned pension finance 50 forum, the highest proportion of pension investment and financial preference of the survey subjects is still bank deposits, as high as 7120%, followed by commercial pension insurance (3265%), bank wealth management (25.).23%), real estate (17.).09%) and **(14.)90%)。
Can bank deposits, which account for the largest proportion, really keep and appreciate the value of pension money?Since September 2022, China's deposit interest rate has been lowered many times, and at present, the three-year time deposit interest rate of mainstream banks is less than 2%, and it is difficult for such a low interest rate to outperform inflation, not to mention appreciation.
Then look at commercial endowment insurance and bank wealth management, both of which are conservative investments, commercial endowment insurance is a security product, the main advantage is annuitalization, live to the old, receive the old, can cover the individual's longevity risk, but the disadvantage is that the income is low, bank wealth management also has the same problem, most of the products are bonds, although stable, but the income is also limited, official data show that the average yield of each monthly bank wealth management product in 2023 is only 294%。
Looking at real estate again, in the past 2 years, the real estate market has continued to adjust, and the era of making a fortune by buying a house has passed, and it is fortunate that the value of real estate has not shrunk.
In fact, this set of data reflects the conservative psychology of most ordinary people in the face of pension investment, after all, it is the money at the bottom of the box, reliable is the most important, so it is right to think so, but we must also see the "power" of long-term investment.
Taking the personal pension system that began in November 2022 as an example, about 10 million people have paid contributions, and the per capita savings amount is more than 2,000 yuan.
If you start investing at the age of 35, it means that there will be a 25-year investment period in the future, which makes many people who put money into personal pensions face short-term losses, and the pain is not strong, as the people said: "Anyway, you have to put it for decades, and you will always make money." ”
Judging from the historical performance of the public offering, this statement is not much of a problem, although the performance of the equity class has not been very good in the past 2 years, but in the long run, wind data shows that in the 15 years from January 1, 2009 to February 6, 2024, the ordinary **type** index has risen by 23747%, and the mixed stock ** index also rose 1849%, which indicates that as long as the people can buy a medium-level **type or partial stock hybrid** and hold it for 15 consecutive years, there is a high probability that the principal will be tripled.
As for the pension **, as of February 5**, 7 of the 8 target date pension FOF** (mainly Class A shares) with traceable returns in the past 5 years have achieved positive returns, and 6 of them have more than 10% returns.
This shows that the pension investment for decades, should not only stare at the risk of short-term investment fluctuations, insufficient returns, will lead to a greater risk of insufficient accumulation of assets for the elderly, only the "savings pension" into "investment pension", is a more scientific way of pension financial management.
At present, the company has accumulated rich experience in the pension business, and has launched two types of pension that meet the needs of different investors, one is the pension target date, only need to know the retirement age, and you can adjust the risk appetite with the age of the investor, which can be described as a "one-click" investment solution, and the other is the target risk type, which is more suitable for experienced investors.
The recent market is indeed a little disheartening, but fortunately, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, ** Huijin and other national teams are supported by the three major stock indexes on February 6, and the negative sentiment continues to clear, and market confidence is rising.
It is said that the most basic operation of investment is to sell high and suck low, after more than 2 consecutive years of adjustment in the a** field, the overall valuation has been low, and now may be a good time to suck low, and the same is true for pension investment, low point into the game is undoubtedly the highest way to increase the winning rate, therefore, it is also a good time to lay out the pension **.
Pension seems to be far away, in fact, we are moving towards old age every day, when there is spare energy, can take risks, to better prepare for the pension is the proper meaning of living a happy old age.