Kunpeng Project
The property market is an important signal again, buy a house or sell a house? Listen to what insiders have to say
Just when many believe that the housing market will continue** and see a correction in 2024, there is an important signal in the housing market.
According to the latest data released by the Shell Research Institute, among the 50 typical cities monitored by the institute, the number of second-hand housing transactions during the Spring Festival (8 days) increased significantly compared with the same period in previous years.
From the perspective of cities, the annual growth rate of first-, second-, and third-tier cities is 140%, respectively, which can be described as crazy. During the Spring Festival, such an abnormal increase in the second-hand housing market can only be explained by two reasons:
On the one hand, they do feel that housing prices are low, but according to the general psychology of buying high and not buying low, low housing prices are not enough for people to buy houses, after all, they are afraid that housing prices will be lower. So I would like to add here that they believe that it is basically the bottom now, and the downward trend in house prices may be about to reverse, so it is better to start in time.
Second, I think the policy is in place. At present, the mortgage interest rate is actually very low, in January 24, the average interest rate of the first home loan in 100 cities across the country was only 384%, which is already at a historically low level, and there is also a replacement subsidy"Sell the old and buy the new"Wait a minute. It can be said that compared with previous years, the additional cost of buying a house with a mortgage is very close to the people, you know, some subsidies are also time-limited, to put it bluntly, this is a phase, buyers feel that there is no such shop after this village, not to mention that they have to buy sooner or later, it is better to buy early and enjoy early.
But what is still hanging in the air is that in the data released by the agency, the number of new home sales still does not appear, which is a clear departure from the second-hand housing market.
For example, among the 25 typical cities monitored by the middle index, the transaction area of new homes during the Spring Festival decreased by 27% year-on-year, and the average daily transaction of 30 units in the 10 major cities monitored by Zhuge Housing also decreased by 13% compared with the same period last year5%。
Needless to say, from any point of view, the number of new home transactions has not increased as much as second-hand homes, but on the contrary, it has continued to decline. The disconnect between new houses and second-hand houses is also an important reason why many experts and scholars have different opinions on the next trend of the real estate industry. But in any case, the volume and price of the second-hand housing market, which can best reflect the real situation of real estate, have risen and ushered in a good start, which means that the political bottom and the second-hand housing market bottom are forming.
An important sign of the reversal of the property market has emerged, for many people are worried"In 2024, should you sell your house at a reduced price or wait and see? "The answer to the question, now it seems, is gradually emerging.
To be honest, in the current market, if the homeowner sells the house to close the deal as soon as possible, or just to reduce the price, it is only possible to attract buyers to view the house by low price. Otherwise, even if the customer does not look at the property, it will not be able to reach the stage of bargaining at all.
It can be said that the current second-hand housing market is still in"Price for volume"of the stage. One of the direct reasons for this is that it does not resonate with the new property market. The author also often says, yes"Three-in-one"。
Previously, there were various signs that the political and second-hand property market has gradually formed, and now the new property market is still missing, is it possible to build this? When will it be established?
The first thing to be clear about is that the reasons for the slowdown in the new home market are complex, but the most critical point, which I think many people can see, is the lack of market confidence. This lack of confidence stems from the instability of income, and also stems from the rupture of the capital chain of real estate enterprises, which leads to delivery problems and quality problems caused by cost reduction.
On the issue of income, the state has indeed realized this. In the middle of last month, the National Development and Reform Commission made it clear that by 2024, it will make great efforts to raise residents' income expectations. It is clear to all that the priority is to address the issue of employment, first and foremost to ensure that everyone has a job.
Second, increase the income channels of residents, especially expand the size of the middle-income group (the middle-income group should be the main force in buying houses).
Of course, it will also enhance peasants' initiative in increasing income. Needless to say, the development of the real estate industry stems from urbanization, and the new force of urbanization is the vast number of farmers, although the pace of moving into the city has slowed down in recent years, but farmers into the city to buy houses to live and work in peace and contentment, is still to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market can not be ignored force.
Now there is only one thing left, and that is"The delivery problem caused by the rupture of the capital chain of the real estate developer and the quality problem caused by large-scale construction"。Don't underestimate this issue, just give an example.
For example, if you buy a product, if you find that the seller has a bad reputation and there are always bad reviews, you basically can't consider this thing. The house is also a commodity, or a commodity, knowing that the property company is in high debt, and it may not be built in the future, do you dare to buy it? Even if you don't have a house to live in, you won't consider renting a house to live in. Of course, due to problems in the capital chain, even if they are barely built and delivered, do you dare to believe that they can really guarantee the quality and not cut corners? For home buyers, this can only be avoided and avoided.
The problems that we, ordinary citizens, can see, policymakers have known for a long time.
From the end of 2022"Three arrows"With the introduction of financing, it is difficult to change the current white list and disk of real estate enterprise financing"Three red lines"The goal is to ensure that the delivery of the building restores market confidence. So, since"Three arrows"Since the financing, until the end of last year, the first economic work conference, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the central bank and other relevant ministries and commissions have been making a fuss about one thing, that is, to solve the problem of confidence in the new housing market.
But the results showed that the previous one"Three arrows"The effect is not ideal, the financing amount of real estate enterprises not only did not increase, but decreased, not to mention that in order to make up for the continuous maturity of the debts of real estate companies, so there are constantly debt defaults of real estate companies, and market confidence is further squeezed.
In fact, the responsibility can not be attributed to the bank, but should be attributed to the person in charge of the real estate enterprise, the debt of the real estate enterprise is less than hundreds of billions, more than a billion, in other words, more than 100,000 real estate enterprises, if the bank lends unprincipledly, it is impossible to solve the problem with billions. What's more, there is a lot of financial pressure now, and if you invest all your money in one industry, not only will you not be able to recover the loan, but you will also have more sequelae, such as the further deterioration of the leverage of real estate companies.
As a result, we see that the whitelist that supports real estate financing starts with rumors of real estate companies and moves on to specific projects. It has to be said that this is a tried-and-true plan that not only saves the project with limited funds and restores market confidence, but also does not allow the debts of real estate companies to increase indefinitely, because these real estate projects are valuable, assets and liabilities can be balanced, and theoretically profits.
Based on the support of all parties for the real estate whitelist project financing plan, the implementation speed is naturally fast. Information released by 6 major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks shows that this year alone, the first batch of 120,000 whitelisted projects have been connected. In short, these projects will receive financial support that will ensure their construction and implementation. This boost to market confidence is undoubtedly sensational, meaning you don't have to worry about buying unfinished properties, they will be dealt with one by one.
In short, we have reason to believe that the state is really serious this time, and it is also looking for and implementing a strategy to restore confidence in the property market. The signal released is naturally clear, as long as confidence in the new deal for the property market is restored"Three gold in one"Naturally. So, in the end, buying a house or selling a house, the answer is actually very clear.
Of course, I continue to reiterate that I do not support buying a house for speculative purposes, which should be for self-occupation. How do you buy it? We can get some information from the data from the online survey conducted by the Investment Society of China on the 2024 Spring Festival.
Among the respondents who have bought a house and plan to buy a house during the Spring Festival, the proportion of replacement upgrade + first-time home purchase is more than 50%, and the proportion of replacement upgrade in the latter is more than 60%. More than 50% of respondents cited neighborhood amenities and educational resources as their top concerns.
You see, when people buy houses nowadays, they only look at where they really need to live, and it is useless to draw those planned cakes, and everyone is not stupid in the financial market behind them, and the cakes are not so easy to cash. By the way, those new districts that have only been built for less than two years have little impact on the industry, and the supporting facilities are obviously insufficient"Three major pieces"will still be ruthlessly abandoned by home buyers. The lesson for our home buyers and property owners is: don't buy, don't buy, the market is heating up, the push has not arrived, don't be greedy.