Buy a good house.
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In recent times, the statistics for the beginning of 2024 have begun to come out one after another. If we look closely, we find that a lot of the data seems to contradict itself:
The transaction volume of first- and second-tier cities is the best month-on-month and year-on-year, but there are more and more cities with the highest housing prices;
The country's second-hand housing has entered the era of general decline, but the enthusiasm of the wealthy class to buy new ones has not diminished;
The number of property viewings is increasing, but the transaction volume is still low**....
Why is this the case?
Let's take a closer look today.
Real estate has entered the third period of change
Many people may not realize that the Spring Festival holiday we have just experienced is the most desperate "spring disaster" for real estate.
The trading volume of 44 key cities during the Spring Festival week was only 23380,000 square meters, down 87% month-on-month, down 40% year-on-year, and 82% lower than the same period in 2022.
It is precisely because the transaction is so sluggish that there is a shocking drop in mortgage interest rates.
However, what we didn't expect is that after entering 2024, there will be more and more cities with ** housing prices.
Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in commercial residential sales** decreased, and the number of cities with new homes decreased from December 20237 to 11This is the first time in the last 11 months that the number of cities with housing prices has increased.
The volume of transactions is in**, the house prices are starting to **, what the hell is this?
This phenomenon is well explained: in the context of the overall downturn in the property market, purchasing power is flowing to cities with higher housing prices, more core areas.
What cities have high housing prices?
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Xichang, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Qingdao, Xi'an, Xiamen, Jinan and other core first- and second-tier cities.
That's right, although the middle-class and comfortable Shuangwen in a small county town swiped the circle of friends during the Spring Festival, the third reshuffle of China's assets has quietly begun, and some big Vs with bad intentions have begun to fool the working class to go to small cities to fill the pits.
Why are people with similar assets 30 years ago in two classes now?
The reason is simple, in the tide of asset change in the past three decades, some people have seized the dividends of the era of asset appreciation twice, while others have missed it perfectly.
The first time was the collective upward urbanization of the whole of China, and a large number of rural people poured into the cities, and at that time, the houses you bought for hundreds of thousands of yuan in Pingdu, Jiaozhou and other counties could be doubled after five or six years;
The second is the dividend brought by the rapid expansion of the core city, the spire elite is in the first line, the ordinary middle class is in the second line, as long as you seize the opportunity of the expansion of the new city center and the subway, the assets can also be doubled.
The third time is now, when the old houses in the first and second-tier cities are also cut in half, smart people are decisively changing their plans and selling the old houses, and the high-quality assets such as location, supporting facilities, gardens, house types, and property services are all rolled up.
In 2023, Lao Wang will go to six major cities, whether it is Beijing, Suzhou, Xi'an, Chengdu, Jinan, Qingdao, or others.
When ordinary people can't afford to buy a house, or don't dare to buy a house, the low-cost houses that pull down the average house price have fewer transactions, and the transaction volume of high-end residences is large, which is naturally the current situation
The number of transactions is decreasing, and the average house price is rising.
Therefore, in the future, the core cities will be Singaporeanized: commercial housing is becoming more and more expensive, and most people have no chance; Ordinary people have affordable rental housing to buy back to solve the housing problem.
The cancellation of the price limit of land, and the use of unsalable low-quality commercial housing as rental housing are all changes in the market under this trend.
So, in 2024, hurry up and get in the car when you can still get high-quality assets, and hurry up when you can change houses.
Second-hand housing, see the trend behind the general decline in the country
I believe that the fastest information about the property market for buyers is how much the second-hand housing has fallen.
Some ** experts, who are surprisingly lazy and still want to get high views, what should I do? Go and pull the second-hand housing transaction data, and find out the one or two houses with low prices.
But why even the second-hand houses in Beijing and Suzhou are **, this reason is rarely explained.
The reason is actually quite simple:China's housing is undergoing the ultimate iteration.
Just like the mobile phone from a button machine to an intelligent iteration, our housing has also undergone the iteration of a tube building, a suite, a large-area suite, and a green building Samsung all-bright transparent and wide hall suite.
Looking at the popular house types, Lao Wang sometimes thinks: how can these houses be iterated?
Yes, just as the iPhone has no revolutionary innovations, the housing volume will enter a plateau of no evolution to a certain extent.
Therefore, the best selling perfect house on the market now must have a higher value retention rate in ten years than those 100 square meters of large sets ten years ago.
Buying a good house with perfect house type, fashionable façade and clubhouse blessing in the core city is still the best choice for asset preservation and appreciation after the property market enters a downward cycle.
Opportunity, only a few people make a move, that's called **
In the first article of the year, Lao Wang noticed a problem: from the Spring Festival holiday, the number of house viewing inquiries has been continuous.
To be honest, if you don't want to buy a house, why bother looking around?
There is a real need.
Whether it is a new house or a second-hand house, Lao Wang does feel the enthusiasm for improving the quality of life after just waking up.
The problem is that after the market has made up for the decline in real estate, Xiaobai, who has no experience in buying a house, has become more troubled by gains and losses
Buying a house does not consider your own budget, and you can't rationally weigh the advantages and disadvantages of the house;
I am always worried that housing prices will continue to fall, so I don't take action when I see an opportunity;
I have listened to too many "outsiders" and cannot see through the characteristics of the market;
Therefore, there are many people looking at the house, and the transaction volume is not large:
However, let's think about it carefully: those big holes in the real estate market, are many people jumping together before you jump, you jump; Those lucrative opportunities in the property market, are you waking up like a dream after a few people make a move?
Opportunity never appears when the crowd is buzzing.
City, location, product power, property, ** as long as you investigate clearly, you think it is appropriate, you will make a decisive move, what are the opinions of the parents who think old, what are the opinions of those friends who drink and are insiders in the real estate market, and those who have never bought a house in the unit should not be the reason to buy or not.
In the 28th law, whoever can seize the 20% of high-quality assets will be able to maintain and increase the value of assets and realize the leap of class in the future.
In 2024, when more and more people begin to flock to hot cities, when many developers begin to shrink their front lines and only acquire land in core cities, when real estate begins to roll up product power for sales, opportunities really appear.
The property market will never pick up as a whole, and will only continue to shuffle in differentiation.
So, what cards do you want to hold?
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