Reading guide: I can't write a little bit today, so that I didn't write at noon, I wanted to use a sentence on the audit to get it: I can't express my opinion, but there are actually some highlights in the day, so I still stuffy my head to mention it, I thought of a sentence I saw yesterday: "buried in a place where no one cares", note, the previous "buy" was replaced with "buried", at the same time, in addition to the current market affected by "external troubles", there are at least 5 major "worries" to consider, so theoretically, it may be clear before it can be exhausted!
At this time, it is meaningless to say what is good or negative, because the news under the weak ** may be interpreted as pessimistic, "external troubles" not to talk about it, in fact, in terms of domestic capital, some of their own scare, as for whether it is "deliberate", this matter may be a matter of opinion, the focus is the snowball, which will be talked about later, so we still focus on talking about "worry".
As far as the current market is concerned, the real core is liquidity, and the power of buyers and sellers is extremely unbalanced, and the articles of the previous two days have also been written. It is GJD to buy it, but this week it is almost impossible to see GJD force, so this week's market is under the premise of insufficient buying, and the selling order is still in volume, it seems that GJD intends to wait for this phenomenon, which may confirm our view on "picking up bargains" a few days ago, so what is going on with the selling volume?
As early as the fourth quarter of last year, we proposed the possibility of entering the next "new energy" around the Spring Festival, because 2021 is a new energy **, there are many products issued, and there are naturally many products corresponding to the closed period, there is no doubt that it is possible to repeat the mistakes of core assets in the third and fourth quarters of last year.
The second is the problem of the snowball knocking in, which was originally eased last week, but this week it accelerated again, taking the CSI 1000 as an example, the data statistics are 4600-5500 points in the range of 300 points for a wave, to today, the 4900-5200 point range has finally fully arrived, with the fall of 4900 points, the third wave of course has begun, however, the amount of the 4600-4900 point range is significantly smaller than the second wave, but there is a possibility of a low "more kill" ......
The third is the annual report forecast, there have been relevant expectations in the recent outperformance or underperformance of the market, of course there are today, the following will be talked about, with the arrival of the final disclosure time, here we need to consider the risk warning and other issues, taking the Shanghai market as an example, a total of 1065 companies have announced the performance, it seems to be more than 6 percent of the profit, of which, there are 325 central state-owned enterprises, distributed in the fields of transportation, manufacturing, consumption and energy, of which, 215 are expected to achieve profitability, 186 profit improvement, so, There may be some companies whose profits have fallen or lost money, and the weakness will lead to the acceleration of pessimistic expectations.
The fourth is today's data, which is not much to talk about, but the data of small and medium-sized enterprises is significantly weaker than that of large ones, and some segments do not stand up to scrutiny.
The fifth is the core of this week, and there are some "more kills and more kills", which has a greater impact on liquidity, why do you say that? The suspension of the lending of restricted shares is a good policy, but this will lead to some institutions that have mismatched in the previous cycle being forced to adjust their positions, especially those who want to arbitrage quantitative funds, so there may be pressure to repay the bonds, which may be one of the core reasons for the intensification of the snowball knock-in in our opinion.
Looking back, today's main feature is differentiation, at the same time, today's index level is relatively stronger than yesterday, but in terms of ** and structure, it is obviously more prominent than the previous two days, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 148%, and the 50 fell 186%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 195%, GEM fell 066%, at the same time, CSI 1000**4%, CNI 2000**448%, but today is not as good as yesterday's "rain and dew", but small and medium-sized acceleration**, but there are still some good performances in the structure, and it is estimated that it is only related to a few people.
The primary industry is slightly better than yesterday, but there is no essential difference, but the concept of the subject is worth seeing, on the one hand, it is reflected in the new energy battery, such as Kirin sodium-ion battery, this is because of the overnight performance forecast of a certain Germany, ushered in a positive reflection of the market, but unfortunately, a certain German low rise, but also only supported the gem did not follow the big fall; On the other hand, the Xiaomi car concept has a positive one, and today it is also leading the rise throughout the day.
If some time ago the lead can also see several structures, then today is not so lucky, the TMT sector is absolute, fully confirmed the expectations, in our opinion, the entire TMT sector of the constituent stocks in the CSI 1000 and CNI 2000 constituent stocks, so there has been a resonance performance, but in our opinion, this is a full reflection of the results of the annual report forecast, as the saying goes, "ugly daughter-in-law always wants to see her in-laws", Then the performance of the TMT sector must always see the ...... of investors
1. The total turnover was 767 billion, and the volume was 95.8 billion.
2. **4815, 184 shares fell to the limit, and 4070 shares fell by more than 3%.
3. The outflow of main funds was 16.1 billion.
4. The inflow of foreign capital was 3.7 billion.
I have to say that today's ** level is much more specific than yesterday, the loss effect is further amplified, the state of 184 shares has not been seen for a long time, and today's volume is by no means made by institutions, because foreign capital is inflow, and the main funds are also shrinking, but the buying is not large, indicating that there are finally some on-site funds may begin to hold back, at the same time, yesterday's financing balance decreased by 8 billion again, so how much is today? **How many can't hold back?
Subjectively, we hope that it is almost, but in fact, only taking the 4600 points of the CSI 1000 as an example, there may still be close to 4% of the space, so theoretically, there is a chance to hit the bottom tomorrow, and it also means that the snowball has come to an end, so if we can make a big push on Thursday, we may be able to see the stage bottom appear earlier, but this is just a condition, but this thing may indeed be the part that has the greatest impact on sentiment in the ultra-short term, so if Thursday can see another sharp decline, We might be going to start picking up bargains......
I am Muyi, sharing my cognition, but not as an investment basis, profit and loss are the same, knowledge and action are one!
Kunpeng Project