List of high-quality authors
Reporter丨Ning Xiaomin, Trainee丨Tu Ling
Produced by丨Aotou Finance (thesankei).
The first battle in the automotive circle in 2024 is not Huawei and Xiaomi, nor BYD and Tesla, but ideals and questions.
On January 9, Li Auto (02015.)HK) officially released the sales volume of the latest week (January 1-January 7, 2024). According to the data, the weekly sales of Li Auto are only 0430,000 units, not only set the worst weekly sales in the past six months, but also lost the long-occupied weekly sales champion of the new car-making force, and replaced it with Wenjie.
Once upon a time, Li Xiang and Yu Chengdong became comrades-in-arms in the same trench because of their support for the extended range technology route, but now they have become competitors, and the capacity of the high-end SUV market is limited.
The ideal three cars have obvious shortcomings
Relying on "refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas", Li Auto has become the most beautiful new force in car manufacturing in 2023. Statistics show that Li Auto will deliver a total of 376,030 vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1822%, which is a quarter higher than the annual sales target of 300,000 units. Compared with Weilai, Xiaopeng and other peers, it can be said that it is the first two heavens, and this obviously makes the head Li Xiang have more confidence in 2024, Li Xiang posted on social **: All the goals in 2023 have been achieved, and higher goals will be challenged in 2024, of which the annual sales target is 800,000 units.
However, in the first week of the new year, Wenjie came out of nowhere, and with the hot sales of the new M7, there is a great tendency to snatch the hegemony of the new power of ideal car manufacturing.
At present, the direct competition with the new M7 is the ideal L7, and the biggest differentiating competition between the two cars lies in intelligent driving.
In Huawei Ads 2With the support of 0, the AEB of the intelligent driving version of Wenjie has achieved easy use and must be used in three aspects. First of all, the AEB has an excellent performance in predicting performance. It uses a variety of perception technologies such as laser, millimeter wave, vision, ultrasound, etc., and works at all times, not afraid of bad weather and insufficient light. The detection distance reaches 200 meters, the detection angle is wide, and the horizontal viewing angle reaches 120 degrees, which is conducive to early detection of risks and instant triggering of AEB. When driving at night, the AEB performance of the Wenjie Intelligent Driving Edition is also far ahead of other models. Secondly, Huawei's original GOD perception system enables AEB to recognize 999% of special-shaped obstacles. Traditional perception systems can only recognize marked vehicles, pedestrians, two-wheelers and other conventional objects, and cannot work properly when encountering other "unknown" objects.
There are many Wenjie riders who share their actual experiences and sigh that "buying Wenjie is to save lives at critical moments".
At 21:44 on the night of December 21, 2023, an ideal L7 was involved in a serious traffic accident in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province, the roof of the car was lifted, and the A and B pillars were completely broken, resulting in 2 deaths and 1 injury.
Ideal official document said that combined with the preliminary analysis of the background data of the vehicle, the vehicle did not turn on the auxiliary driving function during driving, 3 seconds before the collision, the speed reached 178km h, the driver took braking measures, and finally rear-ended the truck in front of him at a speed of 96km h and rushed out of the road.
The accident once again highlights the importance of safe driving, and the relevant authorities have not yet given an official conclusion on the cause of the accident, and if it involves the quality of the vehicle, it should be held accountable in accordance with the law.
In 2024, we will compete with the ideal in an all-round way
As far as the current situation is concerned, the new M7 and the ideal L7 form the most direct competition, and in 2024, the products of the company will form a comprehensive competition with the ideal.
At present, there are two models in the market, the M5 and M7, and the new flagship SUV M9 will also be released at the end of 2023. In 2024, the Cialis will have a facelifted M5, and it is also planned to launch and mass-produce the M8, when the lineup will include at least four models.
From the point of view of product positioning, the size of the M9 is slightly larger than the ideal L9, and it is also misaligned with the ideal L9, and the two are not so direct competition enough, but M8, no accident, is definitely between M7 and M9, and its direct competitors can only be the ideal L8 and L9.
In 2024, Ideal will release the Ideal L6, an SUV for younger families, which should be smaller than the L7 in size, but it is still unknown whether it will be positioned as a mid-to-large SUV or a mid-size SUV. In addition, Ideal has three new pure electric vehicles for delivery.
At that time, M5, M7, M8, and M9 will form a matrix and start a fight with the ideal L6, L7, L8, and L9.
Judging from the current products, the new M7, the M9 that has been listed and the M8 that will be launched in 2024 have certain late-mover advantages, and the advantages of these three products can be used to learn and digest.
However, in the pure electric market, the ideal is only a latecomer, and it takes time to verify whether its products can have differentiated advantages and replicate the success of range extension.
Who can finish 600,000 or 800,000 units?
In fact, Ideal and Question World have been learning from each other's strengths, and they can be described as teachers and friends. Li Xiang is well aware of the strength of Huawei, which injects the soul into the world, so he never competes head-on. When talking about the competition with Huawei, Li Xiang said that the unified understanding of Li Auto's management is "80% learning, 20% respect, and zero complaints". "As a start-up, we are still very admired and excited to meet such a model who has made nearly one trillion dollars of revenue when we enter the scale of 100 billion yuan in revenue, which is our true mentality. ”
Obviously, in 2024, if Ideal and Wenjie want to complete the sales target set, they can't avoid the positive rigidity at the product level, after all, the user group has a high degree of consistency.
According to a number of people familiar with the matter, the sales target for 2024 is 600,000 units, and based on the sales target of 600,000 units, the average monthly sales volume of Wenjie needs to reach 50,000 units, and the average monthly sales of each model is 1250,000 units, judging from the current hot sales of the new M7 and the surge in large orders for the M9, it is very likely that the company will complete this goal.
On the other hand, the ideal, from 37The increase from 60,000 to 800,000 means that it needs to achieve a growth of more than 212%, which is not a big difficulty in terms of the current products of Ideal.
Of course, the ideal is not impossible to complete, but it must make up for the shortcomings in intelligence. On December 10, 2023, Li Auto officially released OTA 50, in the four major functional modules of assisted driving - LCC, high-speed NOA, urban NOA, intelligent parking have been enhanced.
Ideal originally planned to cover 100 cities by the end of the year AD MAX urban NOA 'internal beta version', but also directly increased the code for the scenery intelligent driving NOA "official version", and covered the national highway and ring roads and 100 cities, in addition to the global available full-scene assisted driving LCC, fully delivered to AD MAX users.
This ideal move is obviously eager to make up for the shortcomings of intelligent driving, and the technical level of intelligent driving still needs to be tested in actual combat.
Li Xiang has made it clear that he wants to surpass BBA in 2024 to become the "king of sales" of luxury cars in the Chinese market, and the goal in 2025 is to be the first in the sales of all luxury brands in the Chinese market (that is, the first in the sales of all passenger cars above 200,000 yuan), and the delivery volume will reach 1.6 million units.