Japan and South Korea have not responded to the urgent invitation letter, is China facing problems?

Mondo Education Updated on 2024-02-07

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The trilateral summit between China, Japan and South Korea has attracted much attention, but the Chinese side has not responded to the invitation letter from Japan and South Korea, which has aroused speculation and concern from the outside world. Earlier, during the meeting of the foreign ministers of the three countries, the three sides agreed to hold a meeting of the heads of state at the earliest possible time, but then fell silent. South Korea revealed that the meeting may not take place until after March. According to Japanese media reports, some diplomats said that the meeting may be postponed until after May. What was the reason for the postponement of the meeting? At present, Japan and South Korea are eager to hold a meeting, but the Chinese side has not given a clear answer, indicating that China has the lead on this issue. The Chinese side did not give a specific reply to questions about the timing of the meeting and other questions. This situation has caused concern in the country, and China's failure to respond has hindered the process of the meeting.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's sluggish cabinet approval ratings may have been a big reason for the postponement of the meeting. Fumio Kishida's cabinet approval rating is only 27%, and it has been stuck in "dangerous waters" for two consecutive months. Despite his cabinet reshuffle, he was unable to rally popular support. At the same time, there are disagreements within the LDP over issues such as political donations, which has led to anxiety spreading within the party. In this case, Fumio Kishida is at risk of being ousted. This political instability has made the Chinese side more cautious about the meeting. The Chinese side must take into account that if Fumio Kishida is the first to end the meeting, then all previous efforts will be in vain. Therefore, the Chinese side needs to wait for the political situation in Japan to stabilize the arrangements for the meeting. The Japanese media also noted China's concern about the foundation of Japan's political power, which shows China's cautious attitude on the issue of the meeting.

In the next two months, South Korea will hold parliamentary elections, which is a major event for South Korea**. The results of the parliamentary election will directly affect the evaluation of Yoon Suk-yeol**'s administration and have a significant impact on the direction of South Korea's domestic and foreign affairs. The National Assembly is the highest legislative body, and the results of the National Assembly election will determine whether the incumbent will be able to proceed smoothly in the formulation of policies and implementation. If Yoon's National Power Party can win more than half of the seats, Yoon will not face much resistance in pushing policy and practice. However, if the National Power Party is unable to win more than half of the seats, then the situation becomes complicated. Therefore, China needs to pay close attention to the situation of the South Korean parliamentary election and avoid the talks with Yoon Suk-yeol being affected by the election. The Chinese side chose to hold the meeting after April in order to ensure the smooth progress of the meeting.

The reason why Japan and South Korea are eager to hold a trilateral summit between China, Japan and South Korea is, on the one hand, that they hope to divert domestic pressure through diplomatic activities and gain popular support through diplomatic achievements. Especially in the difficult situation, they need a diplomatic highlight to boost morale and stabilize the approval rating. On the other hand, Japan and South Korea also hope to repair relations with China through this meeting. While Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on the United States for security, they also realize that good relations with China are critical to their domestic and foreign affairs. There are also some vested interests in Japan and South Korea who want to develop economic relations with China, and they are also putting pressure on China. Therefore, China's role in this process should not be underestimated. Japan and South Korea hope to ease bilateral relations and win popular support through meetings with China.

In short, the Trilateral Summit between China, Japan and the ROK needs to be held at the most appropriate time based on actual needs and risk assessment. At present, it seems that China's attitude is relatively cautious, and the leading power is on China's side. Japan and South Korea are eager to meet with China, but the Chinese side has not yet given a clear answer. This is related to Japan's political woes and the South Korean parliamentary elections. In addition, Japan and South Korea hope to use the meeting to deflect domestic pressure and repair relations with China. In general, China is planning to hold a trilateral summit between China, Japan and the ROK, but the timing is affected by a number of factors and needs to be carefully considered.

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