TSMC is no longer positive about NAEUV lithography machines? The reason is simple and straightforward, ASML did not expect it!
In late December last year, ASML released a new piece of information, that is, the NAEUV lithography machine they produced was being shipped to Intel. And according to the information released by ASML, the world's most cutting-edge NAEUV lithography machine can produce 10 units per year, while Intel will get 5 before 2024.
Although TSMC is an important partner of ASML, they do not take the NAEUV lithography machine to heart, and TSMC does not have any rumors about the acquisition of NAEUV. This phenomenon has caused quite a stir in the industry, but considering TSMC's reaction some time ago, they understand the reason.
For cost and market considerations, TSMC does not care much about this, but is "making a U-turn".
In 2024, TSMC has broken several blockbuster news in a row, one of which is that TSMC's chairman Liu Deyin will step down in 2024, and the other is that TSMC has postponed the production of the 3nm process in Japan in the United States, and at the same time postponed the procurement plan of 10 EUV lithography machines.
Judging from TSMC's series of actions, TSMC is about to "turn around" and no longer focus on American consumers as before, but shift its attention to other markets. What's more, TSMC's current situation is not very good, and the investment in advanced manufacturing technology may become less and less.
According to the previously announced figures, TSMC's overall revenue and net profit have declined significantly, and TSMC's market share has also declined in April. This also means that TSMC will find it difficult to afford higher process costs.
Judging from the development of the past few years, it is difficult to further the performance of the chip, even if the A17 uses the 3 nm process, its performance is only improved by 10%. The latest 3 nm process released by Qualcomm and MediaTek is only a 20% increase.
But they're also spending more and more. Take the 3nm process as an example, both TSMC and Samsung have invested tens of billions of dollars in the 3nm process, and the lithography machine of the 3nm process must at least use EUV to manufacture. The cost of an EUV lithography machine is as high as 200 million US dollars, and it has to go through many times, and the qualified rate of the finished product is only 50%.
This is equivalent to comparing the yield of half of the process with the yield of 80-95% of the 4 nm and 5 nm process processes, which is equivalent to increasing the process of the process by nearly 40%. Companies such as Apple and Qualcomm have also pressured TSMC over the high cost of 3-nanometer chips in hopes of reducing costs.
Moreover, the most advanced NeuV lithography machines, as well as chips with 2nm processes, are much more expensive. TSMC has announced that its 2nm process will achieve mass production around 2025, a year behind Intel. In other words, even TSMC will have to spend more money to catch up with Intel at the 2 nm process level.
The NAEUV lithography machine, which is now as high as four billion US dollars, is the first one, and it is not something that can be bought casually. Therefore, TSMC prefers to use EUV lithography machines, because chips with 2 nm process require more time and effort.
At the same time, TSMC no longer insists on advanced processes, but instead focuses on 3 nm and 4 nm process chips, which are also the most popular consumer electronics products at present, such as mobile phones, computers, etc., 5 nm and 7 nm process chips, will also be more and more used in the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry.
In fact, TSMC is not as keen on the naeuv lithography machine as before, on the one hand, because TSMC's work focus has changed, and on the other hand, because Naeuv's ** is too high.
Now, TSMC has not only established two new advanced process processing facilities in Japan, but also expanded its plant in Nanjing, which is a testament to TSMC's focus on advanced process technology. From TSMC's postponement of processes such as 3 nm and 5 nm to the United States, it can be seen that they have set their sights on other markets.
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