In the next few years, India's economy is widely expected to surpass Germany and Japan to become the third largest in the world.
In recent years, India has developed well in the outsourcing of the service industry, and the remittance income of overseas workers is also good, exceeding 100 billion US dollars in 2022. Counting the surplus in services and trade, the ** deficit is more than 100 billion US dollars, plus 700-80 billion US dollars of FDI comes in every year, and the foreign exchange reserves have increased to 600 billion US dollars. The rupee has stabilized its position in the US interest rate hike cycle, and has steadied at 11 against the yuanIt's been almost 3 years around 5.
Chemicals are one of India's largest export categories, with India's agrochemical exports reaching US$5.5 billion in 2022, surpassing the United States to become the second, and China's US$11.1 billion ranking first. In 2022, India's crude steel production was 12.4 billion tons ranks second in the world and accounts for one-eighth of China. In FY 2023-24, India's steel demand is expected to grow by 75% is a clear sign of prosperity. India's cement production in 2022 is 3800 million tons, one-sixth of China's, and the second in the world. FY2023-24 is expected to grow by 6%-8%, which is considered a good growth.
However, if we benchmark against China, we will know that India's economic future still has a lot of flaws.
First of all, India's economy is more dependent on service outsourcing and remittances, especially the United States, which India is now mainly dependent on for service outsourcing, may not be so generous in opening its market to India in the future. Even if the United States is still willing to support India in the future, who can guarantee that the United States will always be strong and can always allocate enough resources to help India.
Second, India is a major energy importer. In particular, India produces a very small proportion of its own oil, now importing more than 200 million tons a year. In the future, with the further development of India's economy, a large-scale increase in oil imports is a high probability event. In particular, India's military and political strength is weak, while Middle Eastern countries attach more importance to the political and military support that oil-importing countries can provide, and India will be more passive when competing for overseas oil resources in the future.
Finally, India's unique caste, ethnic, and religious problems, as well as the deterioration of India's relations with neighboring countries brought about by India's long-term hegemonic policies, will undergo drastic changes over time.
In general, India has the potential to become an economic and political power, but at the same time, it has the same problems that every major country has and India's unique problems.