The risk of the two financial institutions has been alleviated.
In recent days, the sentiment of the secondary market has warmed up. On February 8, the turnover of A-shares exceeded one trillion yuan for two consecutive days, and the Year of the Rabbit ended in the red. The much-watched data of the two financial institutions showed an upward trend, and the net selling volume of financing continued to shrink on February 6 and 7.
In less than a week, the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges fell below another threshold. According to the data, the financing balance slipped to 139 trillion yuan, falling below 14 trillion, falling back to the level at the end of September 2020. A number of brokerage business department people said that notifying customers of margin calls has been the norm for nearly a month.
In the eyes of market participants, the "national team" increased its holdings, representing the medium and long-term capital's caring attitude towards the market. In this context, the scale of net financing sales in the "two financings" has slowed down, and the market is worried that the liquidity dilemma caused by the risks of the two financial institutions has been alleviated.
Considering that the guarantee ratio of the two financial services is more than 230%, and there is a large space from the liquidation line of 130%, the overall risk of the two financial services is controllable. Some brokerage analysts pointed out that according to past historical data, a lower maintenance guarantee ratio is generally accompanied by the emergence of market bottoms.
The "blood loss" of the two financial institutions has slowed down.
The financing balance fell below 1At the 4 trillion mark, new signs show that the "blood loss" of the two financial institutions is slowing down.
According to Flush iFinD data, the scale of financing net selling narrowed on February 6, with a net sale of 151 on the same day3.7 billion yuan, compared with -394 in the previous trading day4.1 billion yuan has improved. On February 7, the scale of net selling of financing was 1314.3 billion yuan, further shrinking.
This is closely related to the recent improvement in the market. Since February 6, A-shares have seen a large **, and many major indices have sharply**, with the Shanghai Composite Index ** 28% on the 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively; SZSE Component Index** 29%; GEM refers to 16% in the same period.
In the eyes of market participants, the sharp rise in the market is inseparable from the strong support of the "national team" funds. Xu Chi, chief strategic analyst of Zhongtai, recently said that Huijin has expanded the scope of ETF holdings at the bottom of the market, representing the caring attitude of domestic medium and long-term funds to the market, and greatly alleviating the market liquidity dilemma caused by snowball knock-in, financial pressure and equity pledge risks.
Some analysts pointed out that at present, the ratio of the two financial institutions to maintain the guarantee has fallen to a historical low, but it is far from the 130% of the brokerage liquidation line, so the overall risk of the two financial institutions is controllable. At the same time, with the maintenance guarantee ratio in the historically low range, it may also indicate that the market bottom has formed.
According to data from China Financial Shares, the average maintenance guarantee ratio on February 7, 2024 was 2387%, up from the low of 222% on February 5.
Huaxi ** non-bank analysts said that from the perspective of historical data, the lower market average guarantee ratio is generally accompanied by the emergence of the market bottom. Therefore, the relevant data of margin trading and securities lending can be used as a real-time indicator to observe the sentiment of funds, and it is expected that the market bottom will be ushered in before and after the average guarantee ratio of the market bottoms out.
He analyzed historical data and said that the average guarantee ratio in the market on January 28, 2016 was 22550%, the Shanghai Composite Index on the same day **265566 points is the low point of 3 months before and after. In 2018, the average guarantee ratio in the market fell back to 215 on October 1860%, the Shanghai Composite Index on the same day **248642 points, which is the intra-month extreme value in October 2018, followed by the Shanghai Composite Index bottoming out at 2464 in January 201936 points.
On April 26, 2022, the extreme value of the guarantee ratio was 23510%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2886 on the day43 points, which is the lowest point of the year in 2022, and 2893 in October 202248 points form a "double bottom" pattern.
Brokerages have taken many measures to ease market pressure.
A number of brokerage branches reported that notifying customers of margin calls has been the norm for nearly a month, and from the feedback attitude, customers responded positively.
A wealth manager from a large brokerage firm in East China said that there are not many customers who really need to close their positions, and the main thing is margin call.
Brokerage China reporters learned that in fact, after the customer touches the liquidation line, the brokerage will not immediately liquidate, and will still give a certain buffer time, but also to maintain market stability.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has recently guided ** companies to maintain the flexibility of the liquidation line by extending the call time and dynamically lowering the liquidation line to reduce the risk of liquidation and market pressure.
The next day, the brokerage China reporter learned that a number of brokerages urgently formulated and revised the two financial business plans, involving issues such as the "minimum line" reduction.
However, after this round of "deleveraging", the number of "exits" from A-shares has increased. According to data from China's financial shares, as of February 7, the number of investors with financial liabilities totaled 153780,000, compared to 159 on December 28, 2023020,000, a decrease of more than 50,000.
The financing balance fell below 14 trillion.
Previously, due to the decline of the secondary market in the early stage, the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined rapidly.
Flush iFinD data shows that the financing balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen fell below 1 on January 31Five trading days after 5 trillion, the financing balance fell to 1 on February 739 trillion. In other words, between January 31 and February 7, the scale of the decline in the financing balance reached 1082$8.4 billion.
During this period, there were two business days in which there were large net selling of financing. Among them, the net selling volume of financing on February 5 reached 3944.1 billion yuan, the largest single-day decline since 2016. Just the previous trading day, the net selling of financing was also 2909.9 billion yuan.
At the beginning of this year, the A-share market continued to perform at the opening, and the market environment was relatively sluggish. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 627%, the largest monthly decline since April 2022; The GEM index fell 1681%, the largest monthly decline since January 2016. In this context, the two financial institutions continue to "shrink". According to the statistics of the Chinese reporter of the brokerage, since January (as of February 7), the balance of the two financial institutions has fallen by 19264.8 billion yuan, close to 200 billion yuan.
According to a previous interview with a number of business departments by a Chinese reporter from a brokerage, from late January to early February, some of the two financial customers did touch the liquidation line.
On the evening of February 5, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission revealed that from the actual liquidation data, the cumulative liquidation amount of the whole market since January was about 900 million yuan, accounting for 6/10,000 of the financing scale, and the target and investors are highly diversified, and the overall risk is controllable. Some investors take the initiative to sell ** to return the financing, which will form a passive decline in the financing balance.