In its estimate of Brazilian cotton production in 2023 24, released for the first time this week, StoneX calculated the output at 3.33 million tons, 5 million tonnes higher than the estimate of the previous cycle, taking into account the historical series of the National ** Company (CONAB).1% (or 16.)050,000 tons), which will represent a record update.
Jo O Pedro Lopes, market intelligence analyst at the organization, explains: "The increase in national ** is due to the increase in production in the state of Mato Grosso, the main producer of cotton, which accounts for about 70% of Brazilian cotton**. ”
Mato Grosso has a stronger yield, which is linked to an increase in planted area and a good level of expected productivity, albeit below the level of the last harvest. The state is expected to produce 2.4 million tonnes of plumes, compared to 2.25 million tonnes in the previous season.
Bahia, the second largest producer, is also counting on an increase in the area under cultivation, but the amount should be slightly lower. Stonex estimates the state's production at $61740,000 tons, slightly lower than the 62 recorded in 2022 23610,000 tons.
The expansion of the area in these two states is largely related to the increased attractiveness of cotton cultivation relative to corn.
Stonex said another factor contributing to the increase in cotton acreage was the problems faced by soybeans. Due to the climate adversities recorded in the last months of 2023, the soybean cycle has shortened in some regions, making cotton cultivation possible.
"In some extreme cases, producers have opted to forgo soybeans because they expect soybeans to be planted in the first harvest," Analyst Lopes said. ”。
With regard to the balance between supply and demand, the high level of production of Brazilian cotton should encourage the creation of a more active export regime, which, according to the group's calculations, reached 2.5 million tons.
"While the increase in exports can be verified, final stocks are expected to be higher than those reported in the previous batch, which will maintain the prospect of loose inventories during the transition period to the next batch," Stonex said in a note. ”。
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