The research team estimated that conflicts and epidemics could be fatal within six months850,000 people from Gaza.
Ocean. According to the latest estimates of the epidemiological research teams of the United States and the United Kingdom, if the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict is delayed, it may be as much as 850,000 people in the Palestinian Gaza Strip died of injuries and diseases.
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University in the United States and the School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine at the University of London in the United Kingdom built models based on available health data in the Gaza Strip to estimate the number of "excess deaths" in the Gaza Strip as a result of the conflict.
According to estimates, if the conflict escalates, within half a year 850,000 people in Gaza will die from injury or disease; If the intensity of the conflict and the level of humanitarian assistance remain the status quo, but there is an outbreak of infectious diseases, about 6670,000 will die; Even in the best-case scenario, in which the conflict ends immediately and there are no outbreaks, some 6,500 people will still die.
According to the New York Times21**, the causes of death considered by the model include trauma, infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal factors, and treatment options such as the patient's inability to continue receiving dialysis due to conflict. Among them, infectious diseases include cholera, measles, polio or meningitis.
Research team members Francisco Keygen, Paul Spiegel and others published a study in the British journal The Lancet in November and December last year, respectively, estimating the excess mortality rate in the Gaza Strip in the nearly 20 days since the outbreak of the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and pointing out that the health department in the Gaza Strip did not overstate the death toll.
The team's latest research has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) launched a surprise attack on Israeli military and civilian targets from the Gaza Strip on 7 October last year, followed by a major Israeli assault on Gaza.
Before the outbreak of the conflict, the population of the Gaza Strip was about 2.2 million. According to data released by the health department of the Gaza Strip on the 21st, Israel's military operation has caused more than 2930,000 people died.
Mr. KGI told The New York Times that the report was not intended to convey political information or propaganda, but only to make the public aware of the information and "put it on the table of decision-makers." The point of the matter, Spiegel said, is that even with an immediate ceasefire, many people will still die. While an escalation of conflict will inevitably result in more**, policymakers should be aware of the scale of the death toll in that case. "(The Gaza Strip) has about 12% of the population was killed, and there could be another 850,000 people died. ”
The United Nations Security Council voted on a draft resolution on an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on the 20th. As the United States once again exercised its veto power, the draft was not adopted. Egypt, Qatar and other countries are brokering a new round of ceasefire. According to a number of Israeli ** reports, Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's wartime cabinet and former defense minister, said on the 21st that he saw the first signs of a new agreement with Hamas, but if it was not negotiated in the end, Israel would launch a ground offensive on Rafah, a port city in southern Gaza. Currently, more than half of the population of the Gaza Strip lives in Rafah, a city of 300,000 people. (End) (Special article by Xinhua News Agency).