In 2024, there is really little good news for the real estate industry, and the fundamentals have not effectively improved.
The first and second quarters of this year are still the peak period for real estate companies to repay their debts, with about 150 billion yuan of debt due every quarter. In contrast, in 2023, the scale of bond issuance by real estate companies will be more than 290 billion yuan, while the total scale of debt due will be as high as 696.8 billion yuan. This huge gap in funds, in the end, real estate companies can only default hard, or through the extension to solve. At the end of last year, the financing whitelist policy was announced, and many banks did find real estate companies to hold a symposium, and even two insurance real estate companies also participated. But so far, this policy has not seen much scale of implementation, and the voice is getting weaker and weaker. Throughout last year, China Debt and related financial institutions provided about 20 billion yuan of bond guarantees for 12 private real estate enterprises, but this absolute financing scale is still too small. Judging from the absolute scale of debt maturity and financial pressure, the first half of this year is the last challenge for real estate companies: on the one hand, sales have not yet picked up, and it is becoming more and more difficult to break the situation in terms of sales collection; On the other hand, many financing support policies still cannot be implemented as soon as possible, many risk problems are still difficult to solve, and banks are still reluctant to lend.
In the next step, there will be a debt default of real estate companies, which is already a high probability, which almost no one denies. Recently, a number of real estate companies have begun to act frequently, because the situation has indeed become very critical. For example, Xinhu Zhongbao, in the past half a month, has been issuing bonds and selling equity, and quickly got a lot of cash. For example, Wanda, which recently sold 5 Wanda Plazas in a row and cashed out a lot of money. The background of these two companies is relatively good, and there are still some cards to play, and the real estate companies that do not have any family background are not so lucky.
There are also several real estate companies in the north, and the problem is also relatively serious, and it is estimated that there will be problems soon. We will continue to pay attention to it in the future, post an article as soon as possible, and if you are interested, you can follow up the article. Previously, the central bank issued a new PSL, which has the meaning of partially supporting real estate, which is good for the new housing market in first- and second-tier cities. However, the current wait-and-see sentiment of buying a house cannot be completely reversed in a day or two. In the case that it is difficult to see the recovery of sales in the short term, it is now urgent to introduce new policies to support the financing of real estate enterprises, at least this year's huge debt repayment pressure, and the corresponding funding gap needs to be filled in time. What everyone is more concerned about is whether those mixed-ownership real estate companies will have problems under this round of debt repayment pressure this year. Some have begun to dispose of assets frequently, and it seems that there is a situation, hoping that there will be no more problems, which will have a greater damper on market confidence.