Ukraine is expected to join NATO? The Dutch prime minister was vague and offered a compromise

Mondo International Updated on 2024-02-24

A few days ago, when Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte attended the Munich Security Conference, he refused to say whether he supported Ukraine's accession to NATO, and at the same time said that as long as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, Ukraine will be in Ukraine"No way"Become a member of NATO. Rutte, who is about to retire from Dutch politics, is currently seen as a serious contender for the next NATO secretary general. "The bad news is that Ukraine is unlikely to become a member of NATO as long as the war continues. But the good news is that we can learn from the EU. "

When asked whether he personally supports Ukraine's accession to NATO at the upcoming summit in July, Rutte did not answer directly. Rutte further stated that NATO can learn from the EU and take one"A compromise approach", not only one country is allowed"From zero to full membership"。He acknowledged Ukraine's dissatisfaction with the issue of NATO accession, but stressed the need"Proceed cautiously", consider"What could be next"to avoid"Over-promise"。

NATO is a collective defense organization, and although it does not require member states to participate in offensive wars, Russia.

The conflict between Sri Lanka and Ukraine was initiated by Russia. Thus, by integrating a country at war into NATO, there is a collective risk of being dragged into the water, and the pursuit of a so-called compromise solution is a way to minimize the risk of involvement in the conflict while avoiding excessive provocation of Russia at once. Moreover, considering that Rutte is a caretaker prime minister, he can act as a scapegoat even if such a statement provokes a backlash.

For Russia, Ukraine's accession to NATO is absolutely unacceptable. However, since they could not annex Ukraine immediately, their strategy was simple: to prevent the end of the war unless Ukraine agreed to sever ties with NATO as a condition of a ceasefire.

In fact, the statement of the Dutch Prime Minister reflects the position of most NATO countries: NATO will not agree to Ukraine's accession while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. After the end of the conflict, NATO will consider whether to allow Ukraine to join, but this permission is conditional. It depends on whether Ukraine emerges victorious or not; Otherwise, there is no chance.

NATO will assess Ukraine's progress and efforts in the conflict to determine the level of assistance. If Ukraine behaves well or makes significant progress, NATO assistance will increase; Otherwise, it will be reduced or canceled. If Ukraine behaves exceptionally well in the conflict, NATO may consider compromising by granting privileges to some of Ukraine's member states.

In conclusion, NATO's position is clear: Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO while the conflict with Russia continues, as this would draw NATO into a war with Russia. As for aid and treatment to Ukraine, it depends mainly on Ukraine's performance. If Ukraine behaves well, everything is negotiable; If not, then everything is non-negotiable.

Western countries, led by the United States, base their assessment of the war on the relationship between costs and benefits, which they in most cases calculate fairly clearly, but also sometimes miscalculate, as in the case of the Korean War and the Vietnam War, in which they underestimated the costs and ignored the strength of their opponents. The reason for the ceasefire and withdrawal is not because they are completely incapable of winning, but because they believe that the costs are too high and disproportionate to the benefits.

Regarding the Ukrainian issue, the West has never been prepared to intervene directly, and the fate of Ukraine is not a matter of concern to them. Their goal is to prolong the conflict in Ukraine as long as possible, hoping to create problems inside Russia. With this way of thinking, Ukraine, of course, cannot join NATO.

However, in order to give Ukraine some confidence, they came up with the so-called"Compromise"Plan. Exactly what this plan entails is unclear, but one thing is certain: as long as the war continues, "the loss of Ukraine" is almost certain.

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