What is the expected trend of steel after the Spring Festival?

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-01

Foreword: In the month, the section steel ** showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising, and the overall decline was 20-50 yuan compared with the beginning of the month, and the total trading volume of rolling steel enterprises was as high as 1 million tons, with a daily average of 550,000 tons, 850,000 tons of shipments last month, an average of 40,000 tons per day, it can be seen that although the spot steel has declined this month, the transaction of section steel production enterprises has increased significantly, and the market still has a bargain replenishment operation, among which the production of galvanized processing enterprises is positive, and the willingness to take goods in the downward stage is higher, and there are positive expectations for the market outlook; Looking back on the spot market, approaching the Spring Festival, terminal enterprises have been on holiday one after another, the demand for steel on construction sites is shrinking, and merchants are weak in destocking, and the market has gradually transitioned to a semi-closed state from the beginning of this week.

* Aspects: At this stage, the finished product inventory of the billet mill decreased by 100,000 tons to 730,000 tons compared with the previous period, affected by the contraction of profits, the production enthusiasm of the manufacturers has weakened significantly, coupled with the current Tangshan City secondary warning start, most of the billet mills have been shut down and eliminated, Tangshan Zhengfeng Iron and Steel is a class A production enterprise, recently released its rolling line production arrangements before and after the Spring Festival holiday, and the four steel rolling lines are scheduled to be overhauled in different periods, which is expected to have a certain impact on the steel market, from the perspective of demand, the downstream steel consumption is gradually shrinking, Supply and demand are expected to remain in a weak balance.

In the short term, the pre-holiday finished products closed up, the market replenishment gradually ended, and the downstream steel demand came to an end; And near the end of the year, large production enterprises have introduced maintenance plans, is expected to continue to decline in short-term finished product inventory, considering the recent news of the RRR cut for the market to inject strong confidence, in the context of macro good, boost the steel market sentiment, after the Spring Festival steel ** is expected to usher in a good start to the probability. (Lange Steel, Liu Wenhui).

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