Zhongtai ** shares *** Fan Jinsong, He Changtian, Zhao Xiangpeng recently conducted research on Wuliangye and released a research report "Wuliangye: Puwu Price Increase Landing, the price is expected to be transmitted upward", this report gives a ** rating to Wuliangye, and the current stock price is 126$3.
Wuliangye (000858).
Investment Essentials. Event: From February 5, the ex-factory price of the company's core product Eight Generations Wuliangye will be raised by 50 yuan from 969 yuan to 1019 yuan.
The price increase was in line with expectations, which made a positive contribution to the average price of Wuliangye products. In December 2023, we launched an in-depth report "Wuliangye: Summary of Price Increase Laws and Analysis of Supporting Measures", reviewing the historical price increase frequency of Wuliangye is mostly once every 1-2 years, and the range is mostly less than 10%, and predicts that the probability of the next price increase is within 10%, and the price increase is 50 yuan, with an increase of about 5%, and the node and range are in line with previous expectations. The relatively modest price increase also helps the market to accept and promote a steady increase in prices. Considering the progress of the payment collection to the old ** up to now, if it is assumed that Puwu will achieve high-single-digit sales growth in the factory caliber throughout the year, and the rebate level remains unchanged, it is expected that the price increase will increase the annual average price of Puwu by about 25-3%。
In response to the price increase, the price of the five batches is expected to be transmitted upwards after the holiday. 1. Eight generations of Wuliangye traditional channels control volume and actively manage market expectations; 2. Gradually enrich the means of growth and reduce the pressure on the volume of eight generations of five grains. At the 2023 1218 dealer conference, the company mentioned that it will optimize the product structure and channel structure of the launch, appropriately reduce the planned delivery volume of the traditional channel of the eighth generation Wuliangye and solidify the quota, and the optimized planned volume will be invested in special specifications of Wuliangye, cultural wine and other products, as well as direct sales channels and the international market. 3. Grasp the Spring Festival peak season to help channels speed up shipments and clear inventory. According to the surging news, with the increase in the ex-factory price of Wuliangye, a number of dealers said that they would increase the market price of the eighth generation of Puwu, which is expected to be between 50 yuan and 100 yuan. Considering that the current market inventory is reasonable, the channel has an upward expectation for the price order, and in the off-season after the holiday, with the company's control of the price of goods, it is expected to drive the upward transmission of the price of the five batches.
The Year of the Dragon zodiac is in short supply, and the eight generations of Pu Wu are smoothly sold. Wuliangye Jiachen Year of the Dragon Zodiac Wine is limited to 99,999 bottles, and the channel feedback is currently in short supply of the Year of the Dragon, which provides a good model for the company to develop more high-premium non-standard collection products in the future. In addition, the peak season before the Spring Festival of Puwu is fast, from the first point of view, the price of Puwu batch to 920 yuan, but also reflects the resilience of demand under the rapid shipment of channels. On the one hand, the increase in ex-factory price will force channel dealers to increase the selling price under profit pressure, and on the other hand, it will also help channel dealers strengthen the consensus on market price and cooperate with the company to control the price.
Earnings** & Investment Advice: Maintain "** rating. Maintain profitability**, and the company's revenue is expected to be from 2023 to 2025. 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 90%；Net profit were: 1.6 billion yuan, 3909.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 26%, corresponding to EPS, respectively. 07 yuan, the corresponding PE is doubled, and it is recommended.
Risk warning: the global epidemic continues to spread, the competition in the high-end wine industry intensifies, and food quality accidents.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of CITIC ** Jiang Ya has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is as high as 9874%, and its **2023 attributable net profit is 3065.8 billion, the **PE converted according to the current price is 1599。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 35 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 32 ** ratings and 3 overweight ratings. The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 19982。
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