In the 1998 Chinese New Year film "Party A and Party B", there is a line that has been recited by people to this day.
1997 has passed, and I miss it a lot.Now that 2023 has passed, will anyone miss it?
Estimates are few.
Because in this year, we often hear some worrying news. Layoffs, struggling entrepreneurs, a changing international situation. And so on and so forth.
But in fact, in 2023, there will still be a lot of exciting news. For example, the new crown epidemic, which is no longer an international public health emergency, has successfully made its first commercial flight of the domestic large aircraft C919, with 13908The achievement of 200 million catties has set a new record high in grain production. It's just that the volume of these messages is always very small.
You can feel itThe information around us is constantly diverging. We only focus on the information we want to focus on, even if it is negative and pessimistic.
However, it is not only information that is dividing.
There is also consumption. And businesses.
On the one hand, it is Pinduoduo's "low-cost conquest of the world". On the other hand, there is the "more and more it sells, and the more it sells", the more it sells. On the one hand, some companies have fallen in response. On the other hand, many companies are taking advantage of the trend.
These divisions seem intricate, even contradictory. But they are happening.
Why is this happening? And how do we respond?
Share a point of view with you:We are experiencing an M-shaped differentiation of consumer preferences and a K-shaped differentiation of corporate development.
What do you mean? 
M-shaped consumption differentiation: inflation among high-income earners and deflation among low- and middle-income earners
Before the official content sharing, I would like to show you 2 statistics:
1) As of June 2020, the number of Mixue Bingcheng stores worldwide has exceeded 10,000The first tea beverage company with more than 10,000 stores。And today, that number has multiplied several times. It can be said that in the current field of milk tea,Below 10 yuan, there is no opponent in Mixue Bingcheng
2) Beijing SKP, which focuses on luxury sales, will have sales in 202326.5 billion yuan,It has been re-elected for many years in a rowThe sales champion of domestic shopping malls
On the one hand, the consumer base of cheap goods is getting larger and larger; On the other hand, ** luxury goods as a whole are also selling better and better. Correspondingly, those goods in the middle are becoming less and less, because the consumer group is divided by the first two.
It can be seen that the whole society is not simply downgrading consumption, nor is it simply upgrading consumption, butConsumption is graded。This differentiation of consumer preferences can be summed up in one word:M-shaped consumption differentiation
Why is it called M-type consumption? It's because of everyoneConsumer preferences are becoming more and more polarized, and it is affordable to buy cheap goods; If you don't want to buy high-end goods, high quality and value assurance. And those ** centered goods, like the small sharp point in the middle of the letter "M", are lonely, and they are in a dilemma.
M-shaped consumption, corresponding to the Japanese scholar Kenichi Ohmae"M-shaped society" – a society in which the middle-income group is gradually disappearing. And those middle-income groups that have disappeared, they originally belonged to the backbone of society, and they were the most widely distributed in society, and they were also the main consumers of those first-class commodities.
The reason for the emergence of "M-shaped society" is that in the process of social development, some middle-income groups have achieved the improvement of their quality of life through their own efforts, opportunities and other factors; But there are still some people who are overwhelmed by salary cuts, unemployment and other factors, and they have lost their former glory.
Eventually,The "M-shaped society" has led to the "M-shaped consumption".It has also spawned a view that has become more and more popular in the past two years:inflation among high-income earners and deflation among low- and middle-income earners; Or to put it more bluntly, as many people cramly summarize online:The rich are inflationary, the poor are deflationary
What do you mean? Why is this happening?
Deflation, simply understood, is the increase in the real purchasing power of money, and money is worth more.
Many people may wonder, isn't this a good thing? But in fact it is not.
Money is worth more because the aggregate demand of society is consistently less than the aggregate supply of society, in other words, it is a "buyer's market".
Why? When the supply of commodities is far greater than the demand, many commodities that were still strong in the past have to be reduced in price, or even "drop once a day". Faced with this situation, rational consumers will think: maybe tomorrow I can reduce the price, and then I can buy more for the same money.
When the above ideas become the consensus of everyone, consumers will become more and more cautious about the potential consumption needs of various types of consumption, and buy fewer and fewer things, which ultimately leads to a serious shortage of total demand in the whole society; If things cannot be sold, the enterprises that produce goods will also lose money and go out of business, and the employees of the enterprises will lose their salaries and lose their jobs.
Money is indeed worth more, but consumers are also holding their wallets tighter.
In such an environment, who groups of people are most affected? It is a low- and moderate-income group.
This is what is called".Deflation for low- and middle-income earners
Faced with this situation, consumers who may have been in the process of taking a pay cut or losing their jobs will further tighten their wallets and try to buy those cheap and affordable goods, thus formingThe cheaper pole on the left side of "M-shaped consumption".
So, what about inflation?
and deflation, as opposed to,The simple understanding of inflation is that the real purchasing power of money has weakened, and money is worthless.
Unlike most people who make money mainly from their salaries, a small number of high-income people can also rely on capital appreciation to increase their wealth, in layman's terms:Make money out of money
How to understand it?
When economic growth slows, a country's central bank (China's central bank is the People's Bank of China) will often "print money" to the market by lowering the benchmark interest rate and bank reserve ratio, thereby reducing the cost of using funds. In the face of these "cheap money", households and enterprises will be more motivated to take out loans for consumption and production, thereby stimulating economic growth.
Because of their own creditworthiness and asset backing, high-income groups are far more able to obtain loans from banks and other financial institutions than ordinary people. At this time, by surpassing ordinary people's credit qualifications and abilities, some high-income people will also get more of the currency (that is, money) that has been created. But with the issuance of more banknotes, the purchasing power of this money will also be diluted, that is, the money is worthless.
In other words, the more money you have, the more the purchasing power of the currency is diluted.
This is what is called"."High-income inflation".
In order to deal with this problem, many people will invest a lot of money in asset purchases, such as buying luxury houses, luxury goods, etc., and this kind of group speculation will further push up the value of these assets, so as to carry out a certain asset preservation, thus constitutingThe expensive pole on the right side of "M-shaped consumption".
Seeing this, it is estimated that many people will complain:I don't want to be made redundant, I don't want to lose my job, I don't want to go to the left side of M, is that something I can control?
That's right, for ordinary people, the external economic environment cannot be controlled, and many things cannot be controlled by themselves. However, thisIt doesn't mean that you are completely unmotivated, completely incapable of acting
At the end of 2023, there is a so-called"Best Investment Jokes of 2023".Widely circulated on the Internet:
"I have two friends, at the beginning of 2023, one sold the house** and lost 50% by the end of the year, but found that the remaining money was enough to buy the house he sold and buy it back; The other sold ** and bought a house, but also lost 50%, and found that now that he has sold the house, he can also buy back the previous **. ”It seems to be a joke, but for thousands of story prototypes, it is real life blood and tears.
But this story can also serve as a wake-up call for many ordinary people: in this increasingly complex era, keep reminding yourselfStrike a balance between risk-taking and stability. If you canReasonable family balance sheet planningDo a good job of reasonable arrangements for family assets and liabilities such as houses, bonds, insurance, cash, and even children's education, so that even if there are various unexpected changes in the external economic environment, you can be more confident in your heart and not at a loss.
K-type differentiation: the capable go up, the inferior go down
The differentiation of the economy and the classification of consumption will affect almost everyone in this society, and it will also push many enterprises to a huge change. Eventually,Some companies have withstood the test of the market and are getting better and better; And some companies are gradually declining or even disappearing.
The differentiation of the capable and the inferior in the enterprise can also be summed up in one word:K-type differentiation
When the overall economy is thriving, as long as the operation of the enterprise is not a mess, there is a high probability that it will not close down. At this time, most companies can survive in the market, and the difference is nothing more than making more and earning less.
And once the economic situation becomes not so good, the situation will be very different. At this time, the market will become a "filter", which will screen out those enterprises with poor operating ability and uncompetitive products; Those who stay are likely to be more successful.
If you carefully take stock of the companies that have survived in the cruel market competition, or even survived better and better, you will find that they basically belong to three types of enterprises:Leader, waiter, and follower
What is a leader? It's the kind of company that produces extremely hot products and changes the pattern of the entire industry.
For example:Apple
As of 2023, there will be nearly 5 billion mobile Internet users out of the world's 8 billion people. The reason why there is such a grand occasion today is to a large extentIt can be attributed to Apple, which is attributed to the release of the iPhone in 2007
What was the global mobile phone market like before the release of the iPhone?
At that time, the market was flooded with all kinds of non-programmable pure communication devices, which can be simply understood as mainly used to make ** and send text messages, and can only use some programs that come with mobile phones.
Later, HTC, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, and other companies began to launch touchscreen phones and provide developers with programming platforms.
At this point, do you think: this seems to be very similar to today's smartphones?
Not. The so-called "smartphones" at that time had too many problems:
For example, the touch screen is mostly a resistive screen, rather than a capacitive screen that is widely used now, and the hands-on experience is very poor;
For example, various mobile phone manufacturers have programming platforms, APP development is very fragmented, and many applications are not satisfactory;
Another example is the widespread use of 3G networks, and the lack of heavyweight applications for the new era:
The advent of the iPhone solves the above problems, redefines the mobile phone, and promotes the popularization of the mobile Internet around the world. Because of this, "iPhone Moment" has become the biggest praise for a new product now, representing great recognition and expectation for it.
And the wind is the kind of enterprise that continues to deepen its own field, does what it is good at, and finally waits for the opportunities of the times.
For example:Uniqlo
In 1972, Yanai Masa, who had just graduated from university and had not found a suitable job, had to return home to take over his father's small clothing store. I did this until 1984.
In 1984, Japan was the world's second largest economy, and a large number of Japanese citizens were immersed in a sea of wealth.
But what did Yanai do? In that year, he gave up the most expensive suit business and turned around and opened a store in the center of Hiroshima that focused on cost-effective, basic, high-tech fabrics - the world's first Uniqlo, and so it was born.
Soon after, Japan began the so-called "lost two decades", the domestic economy fell seriously, a large number of companies closed down, and many ordinary consumers began to make careful calculations, from the previous pursuit of famous brands and luxury goods to the pursuit of high cost performance and high quality.
That's what UNIQLO is all about. UNIQLO began to succeed, and Yanai began to ascend to the throne of "Japan's richest man" many times.
There's a word that people often mention these days:Splash the sky and be rich。It seems that what is bad is a luck and an opportunity, as long as the opportunity comes, you can also enjoy the "wealth and wealth".
But, is this possible? If you don't have a long time of deep cultivation and innovation in your own field, even if "pouring wealth and wealth" comes to you, how can you guarantee that you can catch it? Even if you catch it, why should you let this wealth continue to stay with you?
As for followers, they are companies that start with imitation, but can keenly grasp the market trend and optimize their products.
In fact, this road is the one that has been verified by domestic enterprises the most. For example, ** is a copy of eBay in China, Alipay is a copy of PayPal in China, and OICQ, the early prototype of Tencent QQ, directly imitates ICQ ......
However, these Chinese companiesAware of the pain points of domestic users' needs, and then drastically localized them
For example, eBay entered China through the acquisition of eBay, and its profit model was to charge sellers transaction-related fees such as product display fees, transaction commissions, and payment commissions. But at that time in China, e-commerce had just emerged, and many merchants were not familiar with this set of gameplay; And eBay charges sellers too much, and it doesn't charge for "effectiveness".
In contrast, ** mainly charges advertising fees, and sellers do not charge for opening stores in **, which greatly reduces the threshold for merchants to open stores.
There are many similar examples, which also makes many Chinese companies achieve "corner overtaking" of imitation objects.
In the real world, thoughThere is no clear boundary between leaders, equals, and followers, and they will also switch to each other for current or future business considerations.
The leader is as strong as Apple, and the functional design of some products will also imitate and follow other electronic hardware manufacturers; Others are as strong as Uniqlo, which is also constantly carrying out innovative research and development, and has become a leader in the field of scientific and technological fabrics; Followers, such as Alibaba, will also invest a lot of resources in research and development, so as to allow themselves to lead the development of science and technology.
However, in the early stage of the company's development, enterprises often need to consider their own advantages, characteristics and endowments, and choose to start from one of the angles, which is a more practical approach.
Over the past few years, many people have more or less felt the trend and force of divergence.
Referring to the development history of the United States, Europe and Japan, combined with our current development trend, this differentiation may continue in the future. As for how long this divergence will last, no one knows.
Since you can't hide, you have to face it bravely.
From the perspective of ordinary individuals, in an M-shaped consumer society, it is necessary to reasonably evaluate one's cognitive ability and courage, learn to continue self-growth, and at the same time carefully plan the family balance sheetOn the one hand, you should try to make sure that you can maintain the status quo, and on the other hand, you should be fully prepared to make the leap upwards.
From the perspective of enterprise operators, in the process of differentiation of K-type enterprises, it is necessary to fully consider their own advantages, characteristics and endowmentsFind your position exactly – leader, waiter, or followerand try to make yourself faster and stronger.
Lao Tzu said, "Misfortune and blessing are relied upon, and blessing and misfortune are lurking." ”Differentiation is not terrible, what is terrible is unpreparedness.
I wish you to find an upward opportunity in the growing differentiation.
I wish you, in the wind and waves, to find your own bright sunshine.
Personal opinion, for reference only.