Text: Xie YifengThe financial data in 2024 is off to a good start, with new credit and social finance both hitting a record high in the same period in history, exceeding market expectations, which can be called flood relief. The strong performance of financial data means that the demand for credit from households and enterprises has picked up.
The fierce growth of new credit in January, exceeding market expectations, is mainly related to the early reserve projects of banks since the end of last year, the active release of credit at the beginning of the year, the recovery of credit demand of enterprises and residents, and the stable performance of corporate credit.
The explosion of new credit and social finance has made a good start for the economic recovery in 2024, which will help boost the market's confidence in the economic recovery for the whole year, promote the recovery of investment and consumption, and form a momentum of economic stabilization. According to data from the central bank on February 9, the data of new credit and social financing in January 2024 both hit a record high for the same period in history. Among them, RMB loans increased by 4 in January92 trillion yuan (49 trillion yuan), an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The first is the January 2024 M1 balance of 6942 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%, m2 balance 29763 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%, m1 is 59% and 8 m27%, the scissor difference between M1 and M2 is 28. Significant narrowing. M1 changes from January to December 2023, January 13%。The fundamental reason for the rebound in M1 growth rate is the gradual recovery of domestic investment and consumption, and the increase in the activity of enterprise investment, operation and trading. At the same time, the property market sales continued to bottom, and infrastructure and manufacturing projects were listed in a concentrated manner.
Changes in m2 from January to December 2023, January 97%。
The growth rate of M2 continued to decline, and the fundamental reasons were due to the high base effect last year, the increase in residents' willingness to consume, the decline in their willingness to save, the reduction of deposit interest rates, the acceleration of the issuance of ** bonds, the slowdown in credit delivery, and the decline in corporate demand. M1 reflects the actual purchasing power in the economy, and M2 reflects not only the actual purchasing power, but also the potential purchasing power. If M1 is too fast, the consumer and end markets are active. If M2 is too fast, investment and the middle market are active. If M2 is too high and M1 is too low, investment is overheated, demand is not strong, and there is a risk of crisis. M1 is too high and M2 is too low, demand is strong, investment is insufficient, and there is a risk of price increases. Based on this, the adjustment and change of monetary policy can be determined. Change in scissor difference. January 2023 Month Month Month 82%, October 84%。The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 has narrowed significantly, indicating that the business activities of the real economy and market entities have increased, the degree of capital activation has increased, the phenomenon of capital accumulation in the financial system is gradually improving, and bank loans have accelerated. January 2023 M1 balance 6552 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67%。M2 balance 27381 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126%, the highest level since mid-2016. The scissor difference of M1 and M2 is 59. Expand significantly. The second is that RMB loans increased by 4 in January92 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. By sector, household loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans increased by 352.8 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 627.2 billion yuan.
Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 386 trillion yuan. Among them, short-term loans increased by 146 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 331 trillion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 973.3 billion yuan. Loans from non-bank financial institutions increased by 24.9 billion yuan.
According to the destination of new RMB loans in January, the inflow of areas was 386 trillion yuan, accounting for 4 percent of new loans92 trillion yuan of 7845%, and personal housing loans account for only 1274%。RMB loans increased by 49 trillion yuan, an increase of 922.7 billion yuan year-on-year. By sector, household loans increased by 257.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 34.1 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 223.1 billion yuan. Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 468 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 151 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 35 trillion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 412.7 billion yuan. Loans from non-bank financial institutions decreased by 58.5 billion yuan. According to the destination of new RMB loans in January, the areas of inflow, among which loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 468 trillion yuan, accounting for 495 of 9 trillion yuan71%, and personal housing loans accounted for only 455%。Third, household loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan in January, accounting for 492 trillion yuan of 1992%。Among them, medium and long-term loans representing personal housing loans increased by 627.2 billion yuan, accounting for 4% of the new loans92 trillion yuan of 1274%。
In January 2023, household loans increased by 257.2 billion yuan, accounting for 49 trillion yuan of 524%。Among them, medium and long-term loans, which represent personal housing loans, increased by 223.1 billion yuan, accounting for 49 trillion yuan of 455%。
In January, residents' short-term consumption and medium- and long-term personal mortgage credit grew fiercely and rebounded strongly, indicating that residents' consumption and property market demand have significantly accelerated the signs of bottoming out and recovery, indicating that the real estate market is improving as expected. Reflecting that the short, medium and long-term residents' consumption capacity is being repaired at an accelerated pace, the market will begin to show signs of recovery under the impetus of the previous wave of "relaxation" of property market restrictions to support rigid demand and improve demand. In January, the new credit of enterprises was higher than the trend level, reflecting that the financing demand of enterprises is not weak, of which the decline in bill financing reflects the strengthening of corporate financing demand. The year-on-year increase was mainly due to the high base year-on-year and the decline in bill financing. Personal Housing Loan 202355 trillion yuan, accounting for 22 percent of new loans720,000 yuan of 1120% (30. in 2022.)47%), down 1. from 202270%, down 19. from 202127%。Fourth, the increase in the scale of social financing in January was 65 trillion yuan (598 trillion yuan), 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 484 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.3 billion yuan.
In terms of channels, entrusted loans decreased by 35.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.3 billion yuan. Trust loans increased by 73.2 billion yuan, an increase of 79.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 563.5 billion yuan, an increase of 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
The net financing of corporate bonds was 483.5 billion yuan, an increase of 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year. **Net bond financing was 294.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.3 billion yuan. The domestic financing of non-financial enterprises was 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.2 billion yuan. The scale of social financing is a relatively comprehensive indicator of financial support for the real economy. In January 2024, the increase in social finance reached the highest level in the same period in history, and on the basis of the high base of social finance in the same period, it continued to maintain a year-on-year increase. The financial data on credit, social finance, and deposits got off to a good start in January 2024, indicating that the policy of stabilizing growth has been fully implemented, and the financial system has maintained a high level of financial support for the real economy, which has provided blood to the market. In 2024, large-scale stimulus to activate the economy will come. Monetary and fiscal policies remain moderately loose and active, and there is a certain amount of room for monetary and fiscal operations such as RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, PSL, MLF, and special bonds. First, on February 5, 2024, the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 05% landed, providing long-term liquidity of 1 trillion yuan to the market. In 2023, three rounds of RRR and interest rate cuts will be used to transfuse blood into the market, reduce the financing cost of enterprises, and improve the vitality of the use of market funds. Second, on February 16, the central bank said that it would cut the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate by 10 basis points in order to fight deflation. It will prompt commercial banks to simultaneously cut the lending market interest rate (LPR) by 10 basis points on February 20. Third, on February 18, the central bank launched a 105 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation and a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation, and the winning interest rate remained unchanged, injecting low-cost available loan funds into banks. Fourth, on February 20, the central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps, an unprecedented interest rate cut. The one-year loan market** rate (LPR) remained at 345% unchanged, five-year loan market** rate (LPR) from 420% to 395%。The 5-year (LPR) is linked to the mortgage, and this time it is an unprecedented drop in mortgage rates, with a 25bp cut at a time. This is the second time that the PBOC has lowered the LPR by 10 basis points after announcing in June 2023 that it would cut the LPR by 10 basis points for more than 5 years. In the face of various uncertainties in exports and geopolitics in 2024, the effect of policy stimulus will be measured firstly, firstly, the leading indicators, followed by the property market, guaranteed delivery, debt risk resolution, and the recovery of investment and consumer confidence. First, CPI and PPI are not optimistic. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, in January 2024, the national household consumption** decreased by 08%, the national industrial producers** year-on-year decrease of 25%, showing a downward trend.
Second, the manufacturing industry is rebounding slowly. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI was 49 in January2%, up 02%。The level of prosperity in the manufacturing industry has rebounded. However, it is still below 50%, which is below the critical point.
The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50 in January7%, up 03%。Higher than the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand steadily, mainly because the business activity index of the service industry increased by 0 from the previous month8%。
The composite PMI output index was 50 in January9%, up 06%, which is still higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises continue to expand, but they are still at a low level. The third is a good start. As of Feb. 19**, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 156% regained 2,900 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 093%, the GEM index rose 113%, with more than 4,200 listed companies in the two cities**. Fourth, the real estate market is sluggish. In January and the Spring Festival, the sales of new houses in the property market were miserable. Guaranteed delivery of buildings and debt risks are slow to resolve. The six major state-owned banks and ten joint-stock banks collectively transfused 1 trillion yuan into real estate projects. Fifth, the recovery of investment and consumption is relatively fast, mainly due to the development of infrastructure investment and consumption, and the slow recovery of market confidence. The growth of consumption in cultural tourism, services, e-commerce, and logistics is the most obvious.