The war in Ukraine has been going on for quite some timeUkrainiansThe people are facing tremendous pressure and predicament. They are exhausted, and the political foundations of Ukrainian ** Zelensky have been shaken. People feel helpless, as if they see the end approaching. **A series of re-election operations have been carried out in the hope of finding a solution to the problem. ButPollsThe results show thatUkrainiansIt is still impossible to accurately assess the mentality of the people towards the war. **Pollsis one of the most common survey methodsKievInternationalThe Institute for Social Research took this approach to 2,516 people over the age of 18UkrainiansAn investigation was conducted. The findings are predictably worrying.
1. The cost of war is heavy
The survey showed that in May 2022, one in five respondents answered that their family members or friends had been killed in the war. By November 2023, half of the respondents said that someone in their family or circle of friends had died in the war, with a higher proportion of young and middle-aged people. Seventy-five percent of women and 50 percent of men said they had mental health problems, mainly in the form of insomnia and displacement due to frequent air strikes, which put them under intense psychological stress. Low income, health problems, and family separation have all further exacerbated the situation.
2. The number of people willing to negotiate peace has increased
People generally disliked war, so in the early days of the war,UkrainiansThere is a general willingness to engage in peace talks. In May 2022, just three months after the outbreak of the war, 59% of people said they were willing to talk about peace. At that time, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia were almost successful. However, due to ultra-nationalism and Western interference, the peace talks were ultimately aborted. By August 2022,Russian armyInKievThe axis suffered a heavy setback and was forced to withdraw, but all kinds of accusations of "war crimes" against Russia also flooded Ukraine. Ukrainiansconfidence quickly exploded, and he was no longer so willing to negotiate peace. With the victory of the summer and autumn of 2022 **,UkrainiansWillingness to negotiate peace has reached its lowest point. By January 2023, the euphoria of the victory in Kharkiv was overwhelmed, and the advanced and newly trained troops promised by the West continued to pour into Ukraine, and both Ukraine and the West were pinning their hopes on the great ** in 2023 to achieve brilliant results, if the Russians could be expelled from Ukraine's 1992 borders. At this time, less than a third of the people were willing to go to peace talks. However, after experiencing the loss of **Mutter and the defeat of "Zaporozhye**", the number of people willing to negotiate peace began to increase, but by November 2023, it had not reached half. The proportion of those interested in peace talks fluctuates consistently between 4-5%. According to American sociological research, the increase in war** often brings pressure for peace talks. However, it is worth noting that this research is mainly based overseasMilitaryThe situation of intervention, for the war to defend the homeland may have different situations. UkrainiansEventually, their willingness to negotiate peace may depend on their confidence in victory. Right now, with Ukrainian fatigue exposed in the United States and Europe,UkrainiansThere may be no choice but to engage in peace talks.
3. Resolutely refuse to cede territory
When asked if they were willing to cede territory in exchange for peace, mostUkrainiansThe answer is "never". However, whether this resolute stance can be sustained is related to the severity of the **. The ** figures of the Ukrainian army vary depending on who is trusted, howeverUkrainiansHalf of those surveyed mentioned that their family members or friends had been killed in the war, especially young and middle-aged people. Ukraine is currently undergoing a new round of mobilization, planning to recruit 45-500,000 soldiers to fill the vacancies of the sharp attrition of active forces. However, 71 per cent of respondents said they would never cede an inch of land, 13 per cent were not resolute about it, and only 12 per cent were willing to accept the current line of fire as the basis for a truce. People want to know how many lives they need to sacrificeUkrainianswill accept reality, which will ultimately determine the duration of the war.
4. The war is expected to continue
In the third month of the outbreak of the war, close to 1 3UkrainiansIt was thought that the war would end in three months. But by August 2022, despite the withdrawal of Russian troopsKievaxis, but still controlled the right bank of Kherson and Kharkov, and the number of those who believed that the war could end quickly was sharply reduced. By January 2023, Kharkov** scored a major victory, butUkrainiansConfidence in a quick victory is no longer optimistic. Nevertheless, there are many more who believe that the war can end in 3-6 months, and this is based on the expectations after the victory in Kharkov. However, by November 2023, only 9% of people believed that the war could end within six months, while the number of people who believed it would last more than 12 months had skyrocketed to 43%. It is worth noting that the number of people who are uncertain about the duration of the war has been stable between 30-40%, which indicates a significant partUkrainiansSkepticism about the Ukrainian army's victory over the strong with the weak, as well as the advanced ** provided by the West. Next timePollsIt will probably take place in March-May 2024. At this time, U.S. aid to Ukraine may have been suspended for some time, and European aid may not have materializedUkrainiansHow much more will and confidence to fight will be maintained? What happens if they can't continue fighting and are unwilling to negotiate peace? For those who are willing to hold peace talks but are unwilling to accept the terms of peace talks, this is tantamount to an unwillingness to hold peace talks. The key is whether they are willing to accept reality.