According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of births in the country in 2023 will be 9.02 million. Everyone seems to have calmly accepted this fact, and the trend of declining births cannot be reversed.
Compared with this problem, there is another problem that is more serious and more critical, and that is that land finance is on the verge of collapse. Last year, countless policies were introduced from the top to the county, but it still failed to make the real estate industry better.
After the engine of land finance is turned off, the people who are on the fringes of the system will have a greater impact, such as teachers, doctors**, special inspection and review, municipal workers, etc.
Why these people? If you look at the system as a circle, then the civil servants must be in the innermost, but they are only ranked second, and the innermost is the selection and transfer of students, and the more they go out, the weaker their importance, for public service, full appropriation of public service, difference of appropriation, contract work.
Teachers, doctors**, and municipal workers are on the fringes of the system, with a large number of personnel and high labor costs, and these professions will face hard attrition as the population declines.
If your hometown is in a rural area, ask the local teachers, and you will find that the number of students in rural primary schools is decreasing sharply, and as long as there are qualified families, they will send their children to the county town, or parents will go out to work and bring their children to study.
With the hollowing out of rural areas, the withdrawal and merger of rural schools will become a major trend, and the vast majority of rural primary and secondary schools will close down in the next decade, and all rural students will have to go to town-level schools.
The education situation in the city can not be ignored, in 2025, the number of students in compulsory education is likely to be reduced by 30 million, the transmission effect of the declining birthrate has now been shown in kindergartens, and private kindergartens are not satisfied with students, and it is already the norm for private kindergartens to recruit dissatisfied students and close down.
The teacher employment system in big cities will usher in a large-scale reform.
At present, urban public schools are already exploring more forms of recruitment, such as the employment system, the filing system, and so on.
Last year, there was a lot of uproar about the arrears of wages of Tianjin bus drivers, and finally the bus group received a financial subsidy of 700 million yuan to make up the arrears of wages for employees. As a municipality directly under the central government, Tianjin has a strong economy, but it is still unable to pay employees' salaries, and even social security cannot be paid, let alone other cities?
Since the impact of the epidemic, there has been a significant increase in the number of bus companies operating difficulties in some places, and some local bus companies have even issued announcements announcing that they will suspend operations.
In the long run, with the in-depth development of artificial intelligence, some jobs within the system will be replaced by intelligent machines. Everyone thinks that the doctor industry is a profession that can resist the wheels of the times, requiring a series of capabilities such as communication, diagnosis, operation, and comfort, but intelligent AI can be trained through massive data to give different diagnosis and treatment plans according to different symptoms, and even each person's symptoms are only slightly different, intelligent AI can analyze a result, as for dispensing and applying medicine, the machine operation is more rigorous and standardized.
In the future, many positions in the system may be slowly eliminated. It can only be said that the wheels of the times are rolling forward and will not clearly tell everyone what will appear in the future, but some things are destined to disappear, and some common sense is destined to be subverted.
That day will eventually come, the iron rice bowl is no longer an iron rice bowl, and people in the system can only be left too far by the times by constantly learning new knowledge and improving their cognition.