[Information guide].
A bipartisan agreement in the United States is that there is no risk of a shutdown until March 22.
ECB Governing Council: Support for the first interest rate cut in June Inflation is falling faster than expected.
Japan's Vice Minister of Finance: Keep a close eye on foreign exchange fluctuations with a strong sense of urgency.
The annualized QoQ revision of US GDP for the fourth quarter was revised down to 32%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its benchmark interest rate at 55% unchanged for the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes.
[Market Information].
U.S. congressional leaders reached an agreement to avoid a partial shutdown on March 2 and to fund part of it by September 30. The rest of the U.S.**, including the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security, could still close its doors on March 23. While negotiators have yet to agree on spending for the rest of the sector, the interim appropriations bill also covers the funds needed for the sector as of March 22. The House of Representatives will vote on the bill on Thursday. House Speaker Johnson's office has said he is prepared to allow the closure if no agreement can be reached on a full-year spending bill in the future.
Fed's Collins said the base case scenario is that the Fed will cut interest rates this year; It's too early to say whether the Fed is likely to cut rates in May; The Fed should not overreact to one data point on inflation.
Fed's Williams said that the current U.S. economy is similar to that of the December policy meeting, and the impact of a potential U.S. shutdown on the economy is unclear; The path of rate cuts does not have to be tied to the Fed's quarterly**. The data will determine when the Fed cuts rates, and three rate cuts in 2024 is a reasonable option for the Fed to discuss.
ECB Governing Council member Kazmir said that he supports the first interest rate cut in June, inflation is falling faster than expected, and does not overestimate the impact of the economy on ECB policy.
ECB Governing Council member Simkus said that while it was too early to cut interest rates in March, it was not inappropriate to start discussing easing at next week's meeting.
ECB Governing Council member Nagel said that there is still a lack of reliable wage growth data, and landmark ** data will be released in the future; A premature rate cut would be a "fatal" decision.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its benchmark interest rate at 55% unchanged, the fifth consecutive pause in interest rate hikes, in line with market expectations.
RBNZ Governor Orr said the inflation outlook was very balanced and the official cash rate (OCR) needed to be kept at current levels this year. The exchange rate remained relatively stable for quite some time.
Japan's Vice Minister of Finance Mato Kanda said that the risk of rising market volatility, including foreign exchange, must be treated with caution. Japan is ready to respond if there is excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market; Keep a close eye on foreign exchange fluctuations with a strong sense of urgency. The exchange rate should fluctuate in a stable manner and reflect fundamentals.
According to the Bank of Mexico, the committee will assess the possibility of adjusting the benchmark interest rate at future monetary policy meetings; Headline inflation is expected to be 35%, up from 34%；GDP growth is expected to be 28%, down from the previous estimate of 30%。
The annualized QoQ revision of US GDP for the fourth quarter was revised down to 32%, less than the expected 33%。For the whole of 2023, the U.S. economy will grow at a rate of 2The annualized growth rate of 5% exceeded Wall Street's expectations at the beginning of the year to 19%。
The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for the fourth quarter was revised to an annualized quarter-on-quarter of 21%, beating expectations of 2% and preliminary reading at 2%. Previously, the United States released a number of economic data for January, highlighting that inflationary pressures still exist, and the US CPI in January was **03%, the biggest increase since September last year, and the US PPI for January also far exceeded market consensus expectations.
Bitcoin broke above 6 in the early morning$40,000, up $7,000 for the first time since November 2021. When the rise and fall were fast, more than 170,000 liquidations were generated within 24 hours. Coinbase was down due to transaction congestion and a surge in traffic.
The preliminary value deficit of the U.S. goods account in January was $90.2 billion, and the final value deficit in December 2023 was 878$900 million.
Australia's CPI in January was 3 year-on-year4%, unchanged from the previous value and lower than the market expectation of 36%。The revised average inflation rate rose 3 year-on-year8%, down from 4% in the previous month.
The Bank of Russia said it expects annual inflation in Russia to be 76% with an annual GDP growth rate of 43%。
[Global Market Dynamics].
Dow Jones Index**006% at 3894902 points, S&P 500 **017% at 506976 points, NASDAQ index **055% at 1594774 points.
comex***0.03% to 2043$5 oz., comex***036% to 22$675 oz.
U.S. oil April contract**074% to 78$29 barrels, oil May contract**097% to 81$86 barrel.
The 5-year Treasury yield**53 basis points at 4266%, 10-year Treasury yield**37 basis points at 4269%, 30-year Treasury yield**21 basis point at 4408%。
U.S. Dollar Index**012% to 10393。EURUSD**006% to 10838, GBP/USD**018% to 12662, AUD/USD**073% to 06496, USDJPY**012% to 150688, USDCAD**036% to 13577, USDCHF**002% to 08788。
On February 28, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 18 points to 71075；The onshore yuan officially closed at 7 against the US dollar at 16:30 Beijing time on the 28th1986, 8 points higher than the official **price** of the previous trading day. Beijing time closed at 03:00 on the 29th at 71976, 5 points higher than the previous trading day's night price**; The offshore yuan was quoted at 7 against the US dollar at 05:59 Beijing time on the 29th2141, 2 points from Tuesday's New York session.
[Intraday focus].
15:45 France CPI MoM (Feb)
15:45 Final French Q4 GDP YoY.
16:00 Switzerland's KOF Economic Leading Indicator for February.
16:55 Seasonally adjusted unemployment in Germany for February.
16:55 Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February.
17:30 UK Central Bank mortgage approval for January.
21:00 Germany's preliminary CPI MoM (Feb).
21:30 Canada's GDP (Dec) MoM.
21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 24.
21:30 US core PCE price index for January YoY.
21:30 U.S. personal spending in January MoM.
21:30 US core PCE price index for January MoM.
22:45 Chicago PMI, February, USA
23:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales Index MoM (Jan).
23:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the United States for the week to February 23.
At 02:15 the next day, the Federal Reserve's Mester speaks.
Editor: Ma Mengwei.
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