In the past six months, there have been two very subtle changes in the situation on the peninsula: First, the DPRK side said that the DPRK and the ROK are no longer homogeneous but completely hostile. In addition, the South Korean side said that the "38th parallel buffer zone" between the two countries has officially been abolished, and in the future, the ROK will carry out normal military training against the enemy in the relevant zone. Both of these incidents seem to indicate an ominous sign that is spreading in the skies over East Asia, especially the peninsula region. The DPRK's statement has put an end to the relationship between the two countries.
South Korea has also made an important decision this time, and the abolition of the buffer zone means that there will be another shelling incident in the West Sea in the future, and it is entirely possible for South Korea to retaliate. So, if both the DPRK and the ROK are very hard-line, will the situation on the peninsula be on the verge of eruption? Frankly speaking, if it was the Moon Jae-in era, and the two sides each released some harsh words, there would be no need to worry that the situation on the peninsula would get out of control, but now that Yoon Suk-yeol is in power, it is difficult to say.
In September 2018, after Moon's tireless efforts, the two countries finally signed the Panmunjom Declaration. This declaration aims to resolve the threat of war on the peninsula, end the military confrontation between the two countries, and bring permanent peace to the peninsula. However, as soon as Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, he reversed his previous policy toward North Korea and adopted a tough and hostile attitude. So much so that the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) issued an article bluntly saying that this year is "the year most likely to cause conflict." The reason why North Korea and North Korea have come to this point is inseparable from Yoon Suk-yeol's foreign policy.
After coming to power, he launched a one-sided foreign policy towards the United States, and even sang in the White House as a ** to please Biden. On the one hand, it launched a "friendly" foreign policy toward Japan, which led to a century-long reconciliation between South Korea and Japan, and finally wantonly created tensions between the two Koreas. Some time ago, when I met with the South Korean side, I even said that when there is friction at the border, the South Korean team will never tolerate it, and it can "cut first and then play". That's a lot of weight. The implication is nothing more than that if there is any conflict, the military can go to war directly without reporting to him.
Under such circumstances, it is not surprising how the situation on the peninsula develops, and the conflict may only be one "fuse" away. There is not much difference in military strength between the two countries, and it will not be easy for either side to achieve victory. This is not like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which are both asymmetric wars between big countries and small countries. The intensity, scale and duration of the war are in the hands of the great powers. With the power of Palestine and Ukraine, it is difficult to shake Russia and Israel. However, South Korea and North Korea are different, once this war starts, no one can predict who will win and who will lose, and the two sides will definitely fight to the death.
Generally speaking, the current situation on the Korean Peninsula is in a very dangerous and sensitive period, and if the two sides continue to provoke each other instead of restraint, then the consequences arising from this may be unimaginable.