The years are ruthless and people are changing, and they will break out a new story for you. The wheels of the times are rolling forward, and change and unchanged have become the main theme through the times, and it is also a main line throughout the development process of China's photovoltaic industry.
The essence of policy fluctuations, technological iterations that lead to industry adjustments, changes in the city, the fall of giants, the rise of new stars, and the success of the cycle lies in the grasp of the true meaning of "change and change". Those manufacturers who straighten out the relationship between "change and change" in each cycle have all become trendsetters who lead the times.
A new round of PV expansion and adjustment cycle has arrived, and the story of "change and change" is still happening. Recently, the 2023 PV module shipment list has been released, and as a key indicator to measure the comprehensive strength of module manufacturers, this list has strong reference value.
Let's dismantle this list from the perspective of "change and change".
Change 1: The change of the shipping faucet
Compared with the 2022 list, the 2023 module shipment list still has some obvious changes. JinkoSolar regained the No. 1 spot in global module shipments with 75GW+ shipments, and LONGi Green Energy's record of "three consecutive championships" in global module shipments came to an abrupt end. This is the first noticeable change on the list, and a very significant one. In the PERC era, JinkoSolar has been pressed behind by LONGi Green Energy for three consecutive years, and has returned to the first place in global shipments through the layout of N-type TOPCon cells and modules, highlighting that TOPCon has become the mainstream technology at present.
Change 2: The change of P to N technology
Behind the change in the leading position, the second change in the perspective of the list, that is, the "change in technology", is clearly visible. If you are poor, you will think about change, and if you change, you will be accessible. The conversion efficiency of p-type cells is close to the extreme value of 24%, and the upward space is limited, and it is the general trend to fully embrace n-type technology. We have noticed that the top 10 manufacturers are increasing their N-type technology, and whether they intervene in the N-type track in a timely manner and have a sufficient scale of N-type production capacity has become the key to maintaining the first-line position.
Change 3: The vertical integration of the industrial chain
With the change of technology from P to N, the pattern of the industrial chain is also undergoing significant changes. JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Canadian Solar, and Tongwei Solar, the top six module shipments, have all built integrated industrial chains, forming full coverage of wafers, cells, and modules, as well as polysilicon. To put it simply, vertical integration is equivalent to removing the middleman who makes the price difference, which is conducive to sinking the cost of the upstream to the downstream, and improving the competitiveness of the product while controlling the quality. The reshuffle of the photovoltaic industry is intensifying, and the advantages of integrated manufacturers may be reflected.
Change 4: change of top 5 - top 10 places
According to the list, the top 5 to top 10 module shipments are Canadian Solar, Tongwei Solar, Chint New Energy, Risen Energy, Yiyi New Energy and GCL Integration. Canadian Solar, which ranks fifth, and Tongwei Solar, which ranks sixth, are both expected to ship 30GW, basically standing on the same starting line. Of course, TW Solar's shipments come from a third party, and the specific figure needs to be disclosed in the annual report, which may be different from 30GW. However, it is undeniable that TW Solar has strong growth potential in the module sector, and it will only rank 10th in 2022. At the current rate, it's only a matter of time before you get into the top 5. In addition, the shipment volume of CHINT Xinneng, which ranks 7th, is expected to be 28GW-30GW, which is basically similar to Canadian Solar and Tongwei Solar.
The second "change" of the TOP5-TOP10 position is that Risen Energy has been squeezed into the 8th position, while Risen Energy has been ranked behind Canadian Solar for many years and ranked as the "sixth giant" in components. This change in rank shows that the competition in the photovoltaic module sector is intensifying.
The third "change" of the TOP5-TOP10 is the strong return of GCL Integration, and the 10th place on the past list is Suntech Power, Huansheng Solar, Yixin Energy and other manufacturers, and Daming Guangfu was also once shortlisted in the TOP10. This time, GCL SI regained the TOP10 seat with 12GW-14GW shipments, indicating that GCL SI, which has increased its TOPCON size, has regained new vitality. Coincidentally, GCL Integration also handed over a beautiful performance forecast for 2023, and it is expected that revenue and net profit will both achieve high-digit growth in 2023.
However, GCL Integration is also facing strong competitive pressure in the 10th position. The 2023 shipments disclosed by Hengdian East Magnetic and Yingli Energy are both 12GW-14GW, as many as GCL Integration, and all three are ranked 10th, so the real 10th remains to be announced in the annual report.
Change 5: The rapid rise of n-type cutting-edge
During the iteration window of new and old technologies, a new energy that was established less than 5 years ago has become one of the top 10 global module shipments by betting on TOPCON, and the story of the strong rise of the new edge is still unfolding. We noticed that outside the TOP10 list, Zhongqing Photovoltaic ranked 17th with 6GW shipments, Daheng Energy ranked 22nd with 5GW, Xinlinfei ranked 25th with 4GW, and HJT leader Huasheng New Energy ranked 30th with 3GW.
The acceleration of the shock of the second- and third-tier incumbent module manufacturers. Among them, Daheng Energy has been shortlisted for the bidding of central enterprises.
In addition, Runyang Solar in the cell sector has also emerged in the bidding of central enterprises, Aiko has the highest conversion efficiency of ABC modules in the world, and Gaojing Solar, which is engaged in silicon wafers, is also preparing to build a 16GW module project.
Change 6: Diversification of product system
Under the iteration of technology, the market system of module products tends to be diversified, which is a significant change compared with PERC products. At present, the market share of n-type products is increasing, and mainstream module manufacturers have increased their n-type production capacity to more than 50%, and the market share of n-type modules is also moving towards the goal of 50%. In addition to N-type modules such as HJT and TOPCON, shingled modules and lightweight flexible modules are also shipped. For example, Shangmai New Energy has 0Shipped 5GW lightweight flexible modules. In addition, on the shipment list, Yingchen New Energy has 176GW shipments, Lu'an Solar has 13GW shipments, daycare PV has 07GW shipment.
No 1: F4 is solid
The 2023 PV module shipment list has changed a lot, and there are also many "unchanged" ones. The first "constant" is the solidification of the F4 position. Speaking of "F4", the first TV series in my impression is "Meteor Garden", followed by Carl. Malone, Kobe. The fantasy Lakers made up of Bryant, O'Neal and Payton are called F4. The F4 of the photovoltaic module segment is JinkoSolar 75GW+, Trina Solar 75GW+, LONGi Green Energy 65GW-67GW, and JA Solar 60GW-65GW.
No change 2: The top 9 seats are stable
Observing the year's shipment list data, it is found that in addition to F4, Canadian Solar, Tongwei Solar, Chint New Energy, Risen Energy and Yiyi New Energy have firmly locked in the top 9 seats in global module shipments. In terms of shipments, the above-mentioned manufacturers have obvious advantages in shipments compared with Hengdian East Magnetic and Yingli Energy. A new energy ranked 9th, about 6GW more than the shipments of the previous two manufacturers, which is equivalent to the shipment of a Haitai new energy or EGing optoelectronics.
Unchanged 3: The second echelon position is relatively stable
In addition to the relatively stable position of the top 9 manufacturers in the first echelon, the position of the top 11-top 20 in the second echelon is also relatively stable. In this range, only one of Zhongqing PV in the 2023 shipment list is a new face, Yingli Energy, Seraphim, Sunshine Energy, Suntech Power, Huansheng Photovoltaic, CECEP Solar, Haitai New Energy and EGing Optoelectronics are all old faces. It can be expected that the above-mentioned manufacturers will continue to be in the second echelon in the coming period.
See and know in the subtleties, and thunder in the silence. The photovoltaic industry is always changing, zigzag forward in change, there are smooth roads on the road, there are also ups and downs, but the bright prospects attract countless enterprises to move forward, because they believe that the dark clouds can't cover the sun after all, walk with the light, have light in their hearts, and are not afraid of mud on the soles of their feet. (Grassroots PV).