Coal information summaryPort situation
The basic situation of the main resource areas at the mouth of the pit.
Coal prices in the main producing areas were stable and slightly adjusted. At present, the sales of coal mines are mainly long-term coal, coal washing plants and first-class merchants are basically on holiday, and a small amount of demand is dominated by rigid demand, and the overall market demand is poor. In addition, the Spring Festival is approaching and the production capacity is completed at the end of the month, and the number of coal mines that have been shut down has increased, and the number of coal mines has decreased; The miners said that the upstream and downstream holidays have increased, the market transactions tend to be deserted, and the market will maintain the status quo before the year.
(1) Shanxi region
The overall production of all mines in the region is normal, and a small number of coal mines have canceled night production. The country has cooled down on a large scale, the daily consumption of power plants is generally high, and the terminal inventory has been accelerated, but the overall inventory level is still in a relatively reasonable position, and the strong demand for replenishment has not been released; Coupled with the sluggish demand for industrial coal and electricity, the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the market is strong.
The coal mines in the region are mainly shipped with long-term coal, and the overall stability of the pit mouth is maintained. Approaching the Spring Festival, some coal mines and households will take a holiday to rest, coupled with the tightening of safety supervision in the main producing areas before important meetings, some coal mines will reduce production to a certain extent, so the capacity of the main producing areas will be tightened. This week, the temperature in many places across the country is gradually warming, and the heating demand is weaker than in the previous period, and the demand for industrial electricity and coal will gradually weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that the follow-up market will gradually turn to a weak state of supply and demand, and coal prices will be mainly stable or narrow.
(2) Shaanxi region
The overall production of all mines in the area is normal. As the Spring Festival approaches, some large coal mines in Yulin have entered maintenance ahead of schedule, and the start of coal mines in the region and the daily output have declined, and the current daily output remains at the level of 1.4 million tons. There is no significant boost in terminal demand, market sentiment is still wait-and-see, and the overall trading activity is poor, with private coal mines of 10-20 yuan and individual coal mines of 30-40 yuan. It is expected that the market coal price will be stable or narrow**.
(3) Inner Mongolia region
Towards the end of the year, coal mine safety production is the mainstay. Recently, with the upcoming holidays of some private coal mines, the number of coal production enterprises in the main producing areas of Ordos has decreased, and the operating rate of coal mines in the region has been 72%, down 5% month-on-month. The shipments of the origin were affected, which supported the pre-holiday market, but under the influence of factors such as the cap of daily consumption, the replenishment of long-term agreements, and the replenishment of imported coal with a low and large amount of pipes, the transaction results were average. In addition, due to the snowfall in the early stage, the transportation was blocked, and the sales volume of Ordos automobile transportation decreased by 28% month-on-month3%。The peak season is coming to an end, and the economic benefits of shipping to Hong Kong are poor, and the first business does not dare to rashly replenish the warehouse and hoard goods, and the port spot resources may still be tight; In addition, the quick-freezing mode stimulates some small and medium-sized power generation enterprises to increase their rigid demand slightly, and the seller's mentality of reluctance to sell and stabilize prices in the short term still exists, and coal prices are expected to stabilize.
The mixed coal with a calorific value of 4500 kcal in the Ordos region was sold at about 435 yuan in the pit mouth market, which was the same as in the middle of the month; 5000 kcal calorific value of mixed coal, pit mouth market sales ** at about 560 yuan ton, the same as in the middle of the month; 5500 kcal calorific value of mixed coal, pit mouth market sales ** at about 680 yuan ton, the same as in the middle of the month. The impact of this round of cold wave is limited, and it overlaps with the traditional Spring Festival shutdown and holiday time, which is not enough to trigger major power plants to rush to buy coal. In addition, the off-season is approaching, and the demand for small and medium-sized power plants and non-power enterprises to stock up is not much, and the demand for coal in the market is too poor. It is expected that the downward pressure on coal prices will gradually increase.
(4) Xinjiang region
The supply and demand of Xinjiang's thermal coal market are basically stable, the sales of coal mines have improved compared with the previous period, the downstream terminal just needs to purchase, the pre-holiday purchase volume is enlarged, the regional transportation capacity is tight, and the queuing and loading phenomenon is common. In terms of coal prices in the eastern part of the country, the price of coal in the eastern region was mixed, with Hongshaquan being 10 yuan ton, Yihua ore being 5 yuan and Tianchi being 5 yuan. In the Hami area, Shimei Mine** was flat month-on-month. The Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal is still mainly just needed to pull and transport, and it is expected that the coal price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, among which the Shimei mine in Hami area has a trend of price reduction.
Within the Yangtze River.
Inventory compared to last week**4340,000 tons. The trading atmosphere of the port market along the Yangtze River is cold, the business is temporarily stable, the downstream wait-and-see is the majority, the inquiry is mainly to reduce the price, and the transaction is deadlocked. Approaching the Spring Festival, the number of holidays in downstream factories has increased, and the procurement demand of power plants is scattered, and the overall demand is poor.
Weather
From January 31 to February 9, there was a wide range of rain and snow in the central and eastern regions, of which the cumulative precipitation in Huanghuai, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, central and northern South China and eastern Guizhou was 10 40 mm, 50 80 mm in some areas, and 90 150 mm in the south. The cumulative precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China, North China, and the southeastern part of Northeast China was 3 10 mm. The precipitation in most of the above areas is significantly higher than that of the same period in normal years.
Imported coal.
The import market is running steadily, and this week's domestic terminal bidding is small, the demand is concentrated in the source of low-calorie goods, and the transaction of imported medium-calorie coal is cold. At present, the enthusiasm of the downstream procurement is not high, and the counteroffer is low, but the high level of the outer disk is firm, and the market transaction is slightly deadlocked. Recently, (CV3800) South China terminal won the bid CIF price of 530-540 yuan.
Summary of tariff information
Market pallet situation.
Coal pallets.
As the Lunar New Year approaches, the coal market is even more deserted.
(2) Steel, cement:
Cement:After the Spring Festival, some project funding problems continued, and the project start speed will not be too fast, and the market demand in the first and second quarters may continue to be weak. However, with the extension of the staggered kiln shutdown time in many places, the inventory pressure of cement enterprises has been released, and in order to alleviate the pressure on production costs under the cost guidance, cement may run steadily and weakly.
Steel:With the approach of the Lunar New Year, the steel spot market in various cities is more deserted, and the arrival of rain and snow weather has hindered the transaction and transportation of steel, suppressing downstream terminal demand.
Cost oil prices compared to last week.
Heavy oil will be reduced by 30 yuan tons, and diesel fuel will be reduced by 50 yuan. (Take Shanghai China Gas as a reference).
Port pressure situation.
Tianjin Shenhua wharf ships are expected to wait for 3-5 days, and there is no pressure port phenomenon at Nanjiang wharf; There are a total of 53 ships at the anchorage of Caofeidian Port, which is expected to wait for 1 day; There are a total of 26 ships at the anchorage in Jingtang Port, and it is expected to wait for 4-5 days; There are a total of 45 ships at the anchorage of Shenhua Wharf in Huanghua Port, and it is expected to wait for 4-5 days for Huanghua Shenhua Grocery Terminal to have no pressure on the port; There are a total of 65 ships at the anchorage of Qinhuangdao Port, of which the company expects to wait for 1-2 days.
BenZhou Fenghang situation
Qinhuangdao: 32 hours and 20 minutes.
Caofeidian: 32 hours and 40 minutes.
Jingtang: 28 hours and 30 minutes.
Huanghua: 11 hours 00 minutes.
BDI is 101 points compared to last week
Note: The above views are owned by the original contributors, and do not represent the coal network, and are for reference only. ）