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The core of this strategy is to eliminate or even greatly reduce market risks, and achieve absolute returns that have nothing to do with the rise and fall of the overall market. When the system is active, it is indeed a good effect......
After the tail stock was continuously blown up, it seemed to turn over in one day, falling 10% on the first day and 10% on the second day, this kind of fluctuation is indeed very exciting, this matter is placed on the CNI or CSI 2000, which is also very similar, but if you stretch the long cycle, in the long river of history, this fluctuation may still be ironed out, or even less important, but the current performance is very extreme, this may be the ecology we are going to discuss next, theoretically, The premise of forcing market reform is sufficient, and some fairer actions have been seen during this period, so the ecology of A-shares may have changed.
After more than 30 years of development, although the A-share market has not reached the standards of the mature market, but at least it is not far away, a more perfect system, more mature investors, more trading tools, we are gradually seeing, but the topic that cannot be avoided here is still a cycle, even if the overseas market is mature enough, it has already encountered the emergence of extreme phenomena, during which it is often leveraged funds to do the opposite operation with the market, wealth is cleared, or the wealth of the middle class is forced to transfer, It's not a question of whether you want to or not, but whether you want to or not will be the doomed outcome for most people.
What is meant by "ecology" is explained in terms of biology, environmental protection and sustainable development, and socio-cultural aspects. The word ecology can be used in a number of fields, put on a share, we think it may contain more, but the whole still belongs to the social and cultural level, looking back at the many bigwigs in the field of capital, there are many classics that are not directly written, but written in terms of human nature, culture, subject knowledge, ideas, etc., for example, when I first entered the industry more than ten years ago, I heard a mention: if you study the air conditioning industry, then within a certain range, go one by one to count the air conditioners of the residents in the community are using those brands, theoretically, you know which company you should buy with your money.
The logic of this thing is right, it can also work in mature **, but if it is placed in the previous A shares, it may not be effective, at least not all the time, in other words, because the ecology of the previous and even the current A shares can be described in one sentence: speculation under wealth transfer is prevalent! This kind of ecology is not suitable for investment, whether it is one or two thousand listed companies at the beginning, or five or six thousand now, at least there are very few listed companies that can be described as investment, and the ecology is like this, it is not transferred by human will.
It just so happens that we have read a paragraph in recent days, and I would like to share it in this article, which should be that the net wealth created by A-shares in the past 32 years is 1$85 trillion, where net wealth refers to the total income from long-term holding and dividend reinvestment, minus the total income from the amount of money invested in bank deposits over the same period, which is 1$85 trillion is comparable to the net wealth generated by the top 25 A-share companies.
What does this mean, this is to say that A-shares are currently tradable 5352**, which more than 5000 companies have created net wealth of zero, which may be a bit alarmist, at the same time, there are also some possibilities to be averaged, however, we believe that there are 6 percent of the company's probability is difficult to create positive net wealth, which of course includes central state-owned enterprises and more private enterprises, which means that most of the listed companies are dragging their feet, pulling down the average price of the entire A-shares, which actually explains a little more, A-shares need to be better institutionalized.
But there is a premise here, that is, there are enough samples, and the existing scale of the market, to put it bluntly, this is the "detour" in the development process, but also shows that the reform of the system is imminent, but at the same time it proves that the detour is also the road, the market of 30 years wants to mature rapidly, comparable to the development of more than 200 years overseas, it takes enough time and absolute courage on the top, and it takes enough time to ...... to the end in the exploration
Crossing the river by feeling the stones, it is inevitable to take a detour, because there is no predecessor to build a straight road to the other bank in the river for you, the stones that have been underwater for a long time are crooked, mossy and dense, and there are even some places where there are no stones, you need to build them yourself, but all this process has only one purpose, to reach the other side, this "other bank" is placed in the reform and opening up, that is, to be rich, and to be rich in A shares.
But as mentioned in the previous part, a mature **, should not have the opportunity to get rich, more knowledge can be close to the index is good, or to get rich can only be an example, for example, the previous a**field exists, the previous overseas mature ** also exists, the simplest case, of course, is the btb that appeared a few years ago, which is a typical system, culture and other immature products, for the early investors to bring the opportunity to get rich, but this opportunity will also disappear with maturity, Regardless of how much wealth will be transferred here, the more mature you are, the lower the chance of getting rich.
Therefore, the more mature the market, the more it should reduce the income expectation, so in the mature **, even Buffett can only achieve an average annualized rate of 20%, which is not his only 20% level, but the mature ecology determines that this is already the limit of investors, we take a large state-owned bank as an example, listed less than 14 years ago, subject to the previous resumption, the valuation increase since listing is 620%, so the average annualized rate is 44%, and the average dividend yield of 5% is superimposed on the gross valuation. The combined average annualized rate is as high as 49%.
This figure has exceeded 20% of Buffett's, but this may be less than 0 among thousands of A-share listed companies5%, but if the future of A-shares mature, then the absolute number in the case will increase, which will inevitably bring about a decline in the average annualized absolute number, then the question is, how many people are willing to take the maturity of the average may be 49%, or lower and lower yield, such as 15%, if they are willing to take, or most of them are willing to take, then the investment attributes of A-shares after the ecological change will increase significantly, otherwise they may continue to be excessive for a period of time, maintaining the previous speculative market, It is difficult to achieve common prosperity in this state, and the forced transfer of wealth will continue to happen.
In our opinion, the history of more than 30 years of A-shares is the standard "let some people get rich first", in the future, it may be "the first rich to drive the rich", and it is finally possible to achieve common prosperity, which of course takes time, but also needs to make trade-offs, and it takes the right time and place to be in place, so that it is possible to enter the mature period faster, go through the stage of 0 to 1, emphasize, this not only requires the efforts of the top, Investor education is also needed, and the overseas market is actually an ETF-based investment, which has gone through decades of ...... from scratch, from very small scale to absolute mainstream
In the future of A-shares, we need to consider two issues, which determine whether the future strategy will undergo a fundamental change, one is that the ecology has changed, after the ecological change, the strategy has to follow the change, not to the will of the people, so the aforementioned "willing to take the question" does not actually exist, whether you are willing or not does not hinder the established facts, unless you do not participate, but the reduction of the risk-free interest rate is also an established fact (bank deposit rate or 10-year treasury bond yield), and your money should go**?
The second is that the ecology has not changed, once it has not changed, then some of the institutional changes made a few years ago will only have one effect: plugging the leakage, the purpose of which is only to stop the fall, which means that our thinking may be too advanced, and the A shares will not reach the mature conditions, which means that the A shares after the stop fall will also circulate history, whether it is a mad bull or a long bear, the limit of the valuation and the possible bottomless pit will appear again, and it is really a few happy and a few worried.
If the ecology has not changed, then the road now may still be a detour, how far away from the other side of the bank is not yet known, so on the premise, there is no need to update the strategy, just use it in the past, the market should be stared at, the transaction will be traded, the money will be made Lose money, the liquidation will be liquidated, the wealth will be rich, the wealth should be transferred, at least by the majority of the people, in other words, if the ecology has not changed, then the pre-holiday snowball knocking in, the two melt bursting, Soon it will be dispelled by a few long white lines, and the shareholders will quickly and selectively forget, chasing the cycle of rising and killing the fall, and a lot of them have been withdrawn, in fact, in a word, the ecology remains unchanged, then everything is business as usual!
If the ecology has changed, in fact, it is simpler, the value will go first, penny stocks will be everywhere, the funds will only go to the places with value, their liquidity will get better and better, and those varieties without value attributes will continue to be in a liquidity crisis, retreat and retreat, the final outcome can only be marginalized and reduced to penny stocks, of course, theoretically speaking, the quality of listing and issuance will be higher and higher.
So what should we do? In fact, there is no need to do anything, because after the ecological change, A-shares, will pay more attention to ROE and free cash flow, which has nothing to do with value investment, but ROE may determine your corresponding annualized return, of course, there must be Davis double-click here, those really "small and beautiful" companies will usher in high liquidity, after all, maturity also needs , but between and , the balance will be higher and higher.
Therefore, under this premise, "look at the picture to speak" is invalid, investors need to read the annual report of listed companies, judge the quality of the company's operation from the financial report, rather than look at various technical indicators to trade, indeed, once it comes to this step, in fact, the effectiveness of technical indicators will be enhanced, I believe that there are still many people who do not understand the annual report, but do not hinder anything, professional things to professional people, the quality of the buyer and seller research report will be higher and higher, willing to take the average annualized, ROE has become the core indicator, The quality of the company has become particularly important, and it is truly time for space.
If you don't want to take the average annualization, you need to borrow PEG and high growth as the premise, but if you want to achieve Davis double-click, you need professionalism, you have to have forward-looking thinking to judge the future development, scale and direction of the industry in which the company is located, which is very difficult, most of the existing institutional conditions are not available, and it is necessary to improve the professionalism of professional institutions, which takes time.
But these two strategies have one thing in common, no longer suitable for the majority of investors with speculative trading as the main demand, theoretically, even the quantitative factors have to be greatly modified, our subjective preference for the future of the ecology of A shares will gradually begin to change, but this matter is not subject to our will as a transfer, can only say that the current beginning to have some conditions of the possibility, such as the head with a label, and then such as the narrowing of the information gap, but also such as investors are becoming more and more mature, in the extreme ** of the year ago, Any strategy of A-shares is almost ineffective, and we understand it as the driving force of reform, and it is also the throes of reform, and do not fall ...... the dawn of the future
A shares: detours are also roads" up and down took us a lot of time, the total length is about 8000 words, it is a deep long article sent to you during the Spring Festival, it takes about 30 minutes to read, if it is a normal speed to listen and read, it takes about 38 minutes, we recommend that you completely read the upper and lower parts of this article, I hope to be able to throw bricks and lead jade, if you can make you feel something, it will be our honor, finally, I wish you a happy Spring Festival, the Year of the Dragon income Changhong, and I also wish A shares better and better!
I am Muyi, sharing my cognition, but not as an investment basis, profit and loss are the same, knowledge and action are one!