Text: Yang Guoying.
The opening chapter repeats the point of view for two months:
There is a high probability that the bottom area of the year is inpoint intervals;
The market will be sharply diverged**Will continue to make new lows.
In addition, as I said last week, before the Spring Festival, the SSE should not break through the bottom on January 23 again.
In the first month of 2024, let's completely collapse!
In January, the Shanghai Composite Index fell relatively manageably under the protection of the national team, but other indices were completely out of control, with the median decline of A-shares as high as 20%.
If you review the past year, it is even more of a collapse to the existence of ** - in the past year, almost 1 3 companies have fallen by about 50%.
**Plummeted,** miserable losses, can this blame the market? Can this blame the regulators?
Of course, you can complain, but it is useless to complain.
What's more, when you chose to enter **, you should have recognized A-sharesThe real situationThis real situation includes the emotional style of A-shares, the professional ethics of listed companies and the level of market supervision - if the real situation of A-shares is worse than when you first entered the market, you can complain. However, if the real situation of A-shares is better than when you first entered the **, you don't need to complain.
* You should complain more about yourself.
*Actually, you shouldn't enter**, not that **there will never be a chance to make money, there must be an opportunity, although not now, but even if there is a chance to make money, ** will not be able to beat the market in the end.
I will not discuss what behavioral finance involves here.
More importantly, to participate in the market game, not only is the information weak, but also the time and energy invested is too little and too littleAlmostThe investment decisions are no different from those of gamblers, and the profits and losses are purely based on luck.
How much research do you have on the macro level?
If you go to the current global situation, and the reflexivity of the global situation on China's economy and Chinese finance, is there a structure to think about, when you should be light, you are not light, and when you should be cross-variety, legal and cross-regional allocation, you are allina stocks, how can you not be a leek.
How much research do you have on specific industries?
Do you have in-depth research on the technological changes and industrial cycle changes of specific industries, and just read a few reports by hearsay, how can you not be a leek.
How much research do you have on specific companies?
Have you ever understood the upstream and downstream supporting enterprises of this company, if it is a consumer goods company, have you often run supermarkets and track the dynamic sales data of e-commerce platforms, and you have never even given the secretary of the board of directors of a listed company **, how can you not be a leek.
Let's be honest,Many *** are not actually how interested he is in finance, butaEscape from reality.
It is difficult to make money in real life, conscientiously do a good job in your profession, and upgrade and fight monsters little by little, which is too hard, so many people will choose to escape to **.
These ** will never think, and will never reflect, you are not as good at reading as others, you can't do others in the workplace, you can't do business and start a business, you can't do others, can you do better than others?!
In your life experience, if there is no one thing that can prove that you are a more intelligent and hard-working person than others, then, why can you beat the market in **, this is pure nonsense, this is purely to find a reason for not being pragmatic.
In my investment experience in the past fifteen or sixteen years, I know whether there is a real ability to beat the market, not nothing, but very few, adding up to only two or threeThey almost all share two identical characteristicsFirst, past experience, especially past workplace resume or physical entrepreneurship, is enough to prove their intelligence andNuThe force is more than the average personThe second is that they already have a certain wealth base, which ensures that they have enough timeGive it your allBe a full-time investor.
By reverse derivation, if you don't have any of the above two characteristics, you are 100% the life of a leek.
Now, the fact of the stock market crash has happened, this is a lesson in blood and tears - don't think that you are a cognitive superman and an intellectual superman if you occasionally make some money in **fluke, and you will waste your time in the last few years, as long as you extend it to ten or eight years, in the end you will basically lose money, and you will lose your years and waste your time.
I hope that every stock market crash can knock on some **, so that they can reflect deeply and do something serious from now on.
Yes, there is no threshold, and there is no requirement for physical strength, but the requirements for mental power, research ability, and emotional control ability are extremely high.
I remembered that the stock market crash in 2015-2016, the fact knocked on a friend who was not too familiar, Fuzhou, gathered a few times in those years, after the liquidation (with leverage), this friend learned from the pain, relatives and friends also pulled a hand, chose to do environmental protection stone business, a little bit to do, it is said that he has done well over the years, the company plans to go public next year, he used to fry others, and now he is ready to let others fire his **.
Leeks are not naturally **, but ** are naturally leeksMore than 90% of the ** are unable to focus (in fact, it is not necessary, the capital is small, and there is no cost-effective investment in too much energy), and they cannot prove that their intelligence is extraordinary, but the desire for expectations is quite high.
That's why our offline activities are limited to the middle and upper class groups.