Iraq and the United States recently launched the first round of dialogue to discuss ending the presence of the U.S.-led international coalition in Iraq. Some analysts have pointed out that the discussion between the United States and Iran on the issue of troop withdrawal is related to the continuation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the frequent attacks on US troops, but the issue of troop withdrawal has existed for many years, and the US position has not changed much this time, and it is still unknown when it will be able to withdraw its troops.
The Iraqi Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on January 27 that Iraq and the United States launched the first round of dialogue on the same day to discuss ending the presence of the U.S.-led international coalition in Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Sudani chaired the dialogue. Al-Sudani's diplomatic advisers said Iraq was in contact with other countries of the international coalition to reach an agreement that would serve the interests of Iraq and those countries.
Prior to this, Iraq announced that Iraq and the United States would initiate a dialogue with the High Military Council to promote the development of a timetable for the duration of the international coalition's presence in Iraq and to gradually reduce the number of advisers in Iraq. The Iraqi minister also disclosed that the US ambassador to Iraq handed him a letter in which he conveyed information about the withdrawal talks.
The opening of negotiations between the United States and Iran on the withdrawal of US troops is related to the repeated attacks on the current US military stationed in Iraq.
Since the outbreak of a new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7 last year, Iraqi militias have repeatedly attacked US troops stationed in Iraq and Syria on the grounds that the United States supports Israel. Relevant data show that since October last year, the number of attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria has exceeded 150.
In retaliation for the attacks, the U.S. military has repeatedly launched strikes against Iraqi militias, including the "Popular Mobilization Group" affiliated with the Iraqi security forces. On January 4, the headquarters of the 12th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Group in eastern Baghdad was attacked by US drones, killing three people, including a commander, and wounding five others.
The US attack has aroused dissatisfaction in Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Sudani said that the actions of the US military violated Iraq's sovereignty and were "hostile acts", and repeatedly demanded the withdrawal of US troops. On 13 January, 88 Iraqi parliamentarians submitted a bill to the Knesset on ending the presence of foreign teams in Iraq. Iraq's multiple Shiite militias have also called for Iraq** to abolish all foreign military presences.
Under these circumstances, the United States, which had insisted that the Iraqi militias stop attacking the US military, had changed its position as a condition for negotiations. There are reports that the US side hopes to ease the pressure on Sudani ** by resuming dialogue with the High Military Council, and at the same time reduce the number of attacks on US troops.
In fact, as early as 2020, the issue of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq was on the agenda.
In January 2020, the U.S. military carried out an airstrike in Baghdad, Iraq, killing Soleimani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, and Mohandis, deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Organization. The move sparked discontent in Iraq, and the Iraqi Council of Representatives subsequently adopted an agreement to end the stationing of foreign teams.
Under pressure, the international coalition first said it would stop training and supporting Iraqi forces, and then withdrew from several military bases in Iraq. In August 2020, the United States said it would reduce the number of U.S. troops in Iraq from 5,200 to about 3,500.
In July 2021, Biden of the United States held a meeting with visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi. The joint statement issued after the meeting said that by December 31, 2021, there will be no U.S. troops on combat duty in Iraq, but the U.S. military will continue to train the Iraqi ** army and deal with the extremist group "Islamic State". In January 2022, Iraq** issued a statement saying that the international coalition's combat mission had ended and that the Iraqi military had taken over all military bases.
So far, the United States has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 troops in Syria. Iraq also has hundreds of members of other international coalitions, such as France, who play mainly advisory roles.
According to reports, the negotiations between Iraq and the United States will involve the threat of the "Islamic State" and the combat capability of the Iraqi security forces, etc., as a way to determine the timing of the withdrawal of the international coalition. However, in the opinion of analysts, the United States has stationed troops in Iraq for more than 20 years, and I am afraid that it will not be easily withdrawn, especially in the context of the current complicated situation in the Middle East.
The number of U.S. troops stationed in Iraq is not large, but on the one hand, these forces can contain Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite forces, and provide a starting point for the United States to intervene in the situation in Iraq and deter Iran at any time. On the other hand, it can also cooperate with the US military stationed in Syria to steal oil, wheat and other resources from eastern Syria.
In addition, given that the hasty withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has received some criticism within the United States, it is feared that Biden will not repeat the mistakes of the past. This year is the first year of the United States, and Biden's consideration of the withdrawal of troops will also serve **. In Iraq, apart from the Shiite forces, some Kurdish and Sunni forces do not actually want the withdrawal of US troops.
The U.S. and Iraqi sides have said that the talks between the U.S. and Iran are expected to last for months or even longer, which means that the U.S. is unlikely to withdraw its troops from Iraq in the short term. The US side has claimed that it will insist on the "right to complete self-defense" during the talks, while the Iraqi militia "Islamic Resistance Group" has said that it will continue to attack US military bases until US troops completely withdraw from Iraq. It is foreseeable that there may be more clashes between US forces in Iraq and Iraqi militias in the future.