Indonesia is scheduled to hold a meeting on February 14**, and who will succeed Jokowi, who has been in power for ten years, will become the next leader**, which has attracted the attention of the international community. At present, the competition between the three major political parties running for the election is fierce. The current poll data shows that Prabowo, the ** candidate nominated by the "Indonesia Forward Alliance", has the highest support rate and is expected to win the ** throne.
The largest election in history.
This election is the second time that Indonesia has held an election in conjunction with the legislature. In November 2023, the Indonesian ** committee approved a total of 17 political parties to run for the election, and identified three groups of candidates for the chairmanship and vice-president, including Prabowo and Jibran, Ganjar and Mafud, Anies and Muhaimin. If a candidate receives a majority of the votes in the first round of voting and receives more than 20% of the votes in each of the country's half of the provinces, he or she will win. If the above conditions are not met, the two groups with the most votes will be voted in a second round in June this year, and the candidate with the most votes will win.
In conjunction with the election on February 14, Indonesian voters will also vote for members of the People's Representative Assembly (MP), members of local representative councils, and members of provincial, municipal and local councils. The total population of Indonesia is about 2700 million, this time as many as 20.5 billion, which was called "the world's largest single-day election" by foreign media.
Three-legged pattern.
This time, a total of three major political party alliances launched candidates to run for the election**, forming a three-party trend of "competing for the Central Plains".
The first is the "Indonesia Forward Alliance". The coalition is led by the Greater Indonesia Movement Party, and the remaining members include the Professional Group Party, the National Mission Party, the Democratic Party, the Star Moon Party, the Indonesian Solidarity Party, and others. Among them, the Professional Group Party and the Greater Indonesia Movement Party are the current parliamentary ranks.
Second, the three major parties. According to Indonesia**, the former has a close relationship with the military, and the latter has close contacts with the political and business elites, and has long been deeply involved in the conservative Muslim order, which has a greater influence in Muslim society. Currently, the coalition holds 261 seats in Congress.
The coalition's candidate is Prabowo and Gibran. Prabowo is currently the general chairman of the Greater Indonesian Movement Party and Minister of Defense, and this is his third consecutive election, the first two times losing to the incumbent Jokowi. Deputy ** candidate Gibran is Jokowi's eldest son and mayor of Solo. Prabowo chose Gibran as his partner, mainly in the hope of attracting young voters and Jokowi supporters through him. The portfolio pledged to continue Jokowi's policy and promote Indonesia as a developed country.
This is followed by the Democratic Struggle Party and its coalition. The coalition holds 147 seats in the National Assembly and is led by the Democratic Struggle Party, with other members such as the Building Solidarity Party and the People's Conscience Party. Among them, the Democratic Struggle Party is the largest party in the current parliament, with 128 seats, and adheres to the "Pancasila" principle. The party's general chairman, Megawati, is the daughter of Indonesia's "Father of the Nation" Sokarno, who was elected as the fifth president.
The league's candidate is the combination of Ganjar and Malford. Among them, Ganjar served as the governor of Central Java for 10 years, and promised to continue Jokowi's policy and implement the social assistance program accurately and effectively after being elected. Deputy candidate Mafud is the Coordinating Minister for Politics, Law and Security, the former chief officer of the Constitutional Court, and has many contacts with the largest Muslim group, the Islamic Religious Union.
At present, Jokowi, a member of the Democratic Struggle Party, has not explicitly expressed his support for the Ganjar group, which may indicate a deepening rift between Jokowi and Megawati. Megawati has always stressed in recent years that Jokowi should perform his duties as a "member of the Democratic Struggle Party" and warned at the National Congress of the Democratic Struggle Party that "without the Democratic Struggle Party, there would be no Jokowi".
At present, Jokowi's support rate is as high as 80%, and the deepening of his disagreement with Megawati may cause Jokowi's supporters not to vote for the Democratic Struggle Party, affecting the election results of the Ganjar group.
Finally, there is the "Coalition for Solidarity and Change". The coalition consists of the National Democratic Party, the National Awakening Party, the Prosperity and Justice Party, and holds 167 seats in the National Assembly. With the exception of the National Democratic Party, the rest are Islamic parties, among which the National Awakening Party was founded on the basis of the Islamic Priests' Union and is a representative of moderate Muslims; The Prosperity and Justice Party is more influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The league's candidate is a combination of Anies and Muhaimin. Among them, Anies is an independent candidate, former Minister of Education and Culture, and head of the Jakarta Special Administrative Region, and he has been labeled as "religious" and "master of identity politics" by some Indonesian ** and scholars. Deputy candidate Mu Haemin is the general chairman of the National Awakening Party and has a high support rating among the Muslim community. Under the slogan of "change", the coalition advocates balanced economic development and fair income distribution, and opposes Jokowi's plan to move the capital.
*Who will take the throne?
* As we approach, the election is getting closer. West Java, East Java, and Central Java are the top three ticket warehouses in Indonesia. According to the poll data, the "Indonesia Forward Alliance" leads the support in East and West Java, so Central Java will be the key for all parties to compete.
Judging from the results of previous elections, Central Java is the base camp and large vote base of the Democratic Struggle Party, and it is also the "nest" that Ganjar has been operating for ten years. However, the city of Solo, Central Java, where Jokowi is home, Gibran is the mayor, and the current governor of Central Java, Suchana, is also appointed by Jokowi, and these factors may give the Indonesian Forward Alliance more advantages in the province.
According to data from a number of polling agencies in Indonesia, Prabowo, the candidate of the "Indonesia Forward Alliance", has the highest support rate in the poll and is expected to win the new term of Indonesia**. Among them, according to the latest poll results released by the polling agency "Political Indicator" on January 20, Prabowo and Gibran support are 486%, Anies and Muhaimin approval rating from 255% fell to 242 percent, while Ganjar and Malford slipped from 23 percent to 216%。
Whether Prabowo can "win the championship in one fell swoop" and win directly in the first round of voting depends on the attitude of more than 30% of swing voters. If Prabowo fails to win the first round, it could face even greater challenges in the future. According to Lianhe Zaobao, Anies and Ganjar's campaign teams are already discussing a political alliance to block Prabowo's victory. If the election goes to the second round, the two groups of candidates may join forces and face Prabowo.
Author's Affiliation: China Institute of Contemporary International Relations).