The current time point is approaching the policy window of the blockbuster meeting in early March, and market sentiment or risk appetite is still expected to remain at a high level. Therefore, it is expected that the probability of ** will be dominated by ** for the time being, and at the same time, structural opportunities may be biased towards small and medium-sized growth. 
Investor Network" Special Wealth Navigator Mao Rui.
The three major indexes opened mixed in early trading on Monday. After the opening, the index fell slightly and diverged, the Shanghai Composite Index traded sideways at a low level, and the Shenzhen Component Index rebounded above the flat line. In the afternoon, the index rose first and then fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded slightly after hitting a new intraday low. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index fell by 093%, down 004%, down 037% reimbursed. On the disk, there are 106 stocks with a daily limit (excluding ST), indicating that the market sentiment is high; The change ratio is 3569:1395, and the average increase is 144%, the money-making effect is obvious, and the turnover of the two cities is 989.1 billion, an increase of 7 from the previous trading day28%。The net outflow of northbound funds exceeded 1.3 billion yuan.
Yesterday, the market showed a pattern of weak and strong indexes. On the one hand, affected by the collective decline of high-dividend weight varieties, ** ended the trend of Lianyang, and failed to make up for the gap between 3017 and 3022 above as scheduled; On the other hand, the number of limit stocks after excluding ST is still above 100, and the average increase is still as high as 144%, reflecting that the market risk appetite and money-making effect remain at a high level.
Uncle Rui believes that this pattern in the market yesterday may reflect the latest trends in funds. On the one hand, it was mentioned in yesterday's morning comment that as ** returned to around 3000 points, the strength of the disk began to weaken significantly, thereby reducing its support for weighted varieties, and the evidence is that since February 22, the scale of funds entering the broad-based ETF has begun to shrink and even withdraw. On the other hand, the extreme of small and mid-cap stocks in the early stage led to the liquidation of some quantitative funds that mainly allocated small and medium-cap stocks, but when the market stabilized significantly, quantitative funds began to cover in small and medium-cap stocks. This has also led to a cumulative gain of about 49% in the micro-cap index since February 8, and it still achieved a gain of nearly 3% yesterday in the case of ** adjustment.
At present, on the one hand, it is expected that unless there is a large systemic risk again, the protective force will make another strong move; On the other hand, the recent economic data is relatively flat, especially the real estate transactions are weak, in the first 23 days of February, 67 real estate transactions decreased by 65% year-on-year, so it is difficult to form a greater driving force for pro-cyclical weight varieties, so that at the ** level, it is estimated that there will be a process of recuperation. However, the current time point is close to the policy window of the blockbuster meeting in early March, and the market sentiment or risk appetite is still expected to remain at a high level.
In addition, from a technical point of view, ** has a chip density band of nearly 100 points above the gap between 3017 and 3022, which corresponds to a relatively large pressure on the hedging market in the early stage, while the average stock price index is still nearly 10% away from the chip peak above. That is to say, relatively **, the overall potential is greater. Therefore, on the whole, Uncle Rui believes that the previous market short-forcing stage should have come to an end, and the probability of being on the market is large, and the market may have a differentiated pattern, and the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to continue to maintain a relatively active trend. At the corresponding operational level, heavy positions can continue to hold shares to rise, of course, they can also sell high and buy low to make some price differences; Those with light positions are mainly wait-and-see for the time being, waiting for a certain ** to appear on the **, and then consider low buying in combination with the characteristics of the current market style.
In terms of sectors and hot spots, on the market yesterday, in terms of industries, sorted in an unweighted manner, general machinery, industrial machinery, construction machinery, etc. were among the top gainers, and insurance, banks, and coal were among the top decliners. In terms of subject matter, combined with the increase of more than 5%** number and the increase in the sector index, industrial machine tools, new industrialization, robot concepts, high-end equipment, etc. are quite active.
Yesterday, the concept of robots and the "large-scale equipment update" represented by industrial machine tools are the main outlets of the market, and these two parts are also the key tips given to you by Uncle Rui in yesterday's morning review. "Research on large-scale equipment renewal" was proposed at the fourth meeting of the ** Financial and Economic Committee, and it is worth noting that the meeting also proposed "studying the problem of effectively reducing the logistics cost of the whole society". In addition, in terms of the latest news, the National Standing Committee held yesterday afternoon proposed to promote the construction of a unified national market to continuously make new progress and achieve new breakthroughs, so as to provide strong support for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development. The construction of a unified national market should also be closely related to logistics, so Uncle Rui will talk about logistics today. There are two parts worth paying attention to in reducing the logistics cost of the whole society. First, the meeting proposed to optimize the transportation structure, strengthen the "road to rail" and "road to water", deepen the reform of the comprehensive transportation system, and form a unified, efficient, competitive and orderly logistics market. From the perspective of carbon neutrality, waterways and railways have lower energy consumption and lower rates than road transportation. The adjustment of the transportation structure is good for inland shipping, railway containers, logistics hub platforms, etc.: "public to water" or improve the efficiency of water transportation such as offshore routes, Yangtze River waterways, and Pearl River waterways, and is good for domestic trade container shipping companies that provide multimodal transport; The development of multimodal transport is in the ascendant, which is conducive to providing railway container logistics companies; The construction of the national logistics backbone network and the development of multimodal transport have driven the demand for scheduling and transit, which is conducive to logistics companies holding hubs and platform companies participating in the optimal allocation of resources. Second, the meeting proposed to "optimize the main trunk channel, open up the blocking points, improve the modern trade circulation system, and encourage the development of new logistics models combined with the platform economy, low-altitude economy, and unmanned driving." This is a newer formulation. Regarding the platform economy, the 2022 "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Market" pointed out that digital construction should be accelerated, online and offline integration development should be promoted, and more new platforms, new formats and new models of commerce and trade circulation should be formed. Regarding the low-altitude economy, from the first-class economic work conference to the National Air Traffic Management Commission's increase in non-controlled areas for the basic classification of airspace and then to the implementation of the policy in Shenzhen, it means that from the top-level design to the basic escort to the practical implementation, the development of the low-altitude economy has ushered in an important period of opportunity. Overall, reducing logistics costs is not the same as reducing logistics directly, and most of the policies to reduce costs in the past have been implemented. The consistency of the policy of effectively reducing logistics costs has been maintained for many years, but there has also been a situation where the loading and unloading fees of ports such as Shanghai Port and Ningbo Port have rebounded. Once again, it is verified that the original intention of the national policy is not to reduce the direct logistics **. On the contrary, some model innovation and technology can promote efficiency improvement, such as multimodal transport, network freight platform, low-altitude logistics, unmanned transportation, airport logistics, port logistics, etc. are expected to benefit.
On the news side, on the 26th, the 2024 Mobile World Congress opened in Barcelona, Spain. Yang Jie, Chairman of China Mobile, said in his keynote speech that he would embrace the "AI+" era and create a new future together. Promote the "integration of data networks" and build a data circulation infrastructure represented by data networking; Promote the "integration of computing and network" and deepen the practice of the computing network industry; Promote the systematic layout of 5G-A and 6G R&D in "intelligent network integration". Huawei also said that 2024 is the first year of 5G-A commercialization, and combined with the development of cloud and AI technologies, there is huge potential for operators' commercial growth. 5G-A (5G-Advanced) is also known as 55G is a transitional mobile communication technology between 5G and 6G, which is enhanced and expanded for 5G scenarios. It is based on the evolution and enhancement of 5G, and is an upgraded and evolved version of 5G technology, which has the role of connecting the previous and the next, and some features play a guiding role in the evolution from 5G to 6G. In June 2023, Huawei announced at MWC Shanghai 2023 that it would launch Commercial 55G full set of network equipment. On September 11, 2023, Huawei took the lead in completing all 5G-A functional test cases. It is expected that the first version of 5G-A, R18, will be frozen in the first half of 2024, and the industry is expected to usher in the 5G-A era in 2024. Compared with 5G, 5G-A continues to innovate and upgrade in multiple fields such as speed, latency, capacity, and power consumption. According to China Mobile's "5G-Advanced New Capabilities and Industrial Development", China Mobile's top ten core technologies for 5G-A include: X-Layer cross-layer integration, communication perception fusion, UDD time-frequency unified full-duplex, air-space-ground integration, extreme certainty, EIoT, cellular Internet of Things, AI autonomous network, wireless cloud-network, computing-industry integration, intelligent relay, and low-carbon and energy-saving. 5G-A will further enhance network capabilities, and the ability to support downlink 10Gbps, uplink 1Gbps, broadband real-time interaction, and millisecond-level interaction latency will activate the AR VR industry and fully enable the metaverse, bringing the full-sensory interactive and immersive experience to reality. 5G-A will also support the most comprehensive IoT capabilities, and the module types will cover a full range of IoT module capabilities from industrial-grade high-speed connection to RedCap, passive IoT, and Gbps to Kbps, fully enabling the intelligent connection of all things and providing the most powerful industrial support for hundreds of billions of connections. Furthermore, 5G-A will also support capabilities that go beyond connectivity, such as perception and high-precision positioning, and use one network for multiple purposes. 5.The development of 5G has entered a positive stage, with the active participation of equipment manufacturers and domestic and foreign operators. Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and other equipment manufacturers are developing and manufacturing 55G equipment, with plans to launch commercial equipment in 2024. Domestic operators have already started 55G trials and deployments. Foreign operators such as AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, etc. are also actively involved5The test and deployment of 5G, on the whole, China is in a relatively leading position with its advantages in 5G coverage and patents, and global competition is expected to accelerate the rapid development of the industrial chain.
Operation strategy: Yesterday** ended the Lianyang trend due to the collective decline of high-dividend weight varieties, but the market risk appetite and money-making effect remained at a high level. **On the one hand, with the weakening of the protective disk and the current economic data, it is difficult to form a greater driving force for pro-cyclical weight varieties; On the other hand, the current time point is close to the policy window of the blockbuster meeting in early March, and market sentiment or risk appetite is still expected to remain at a high level. Therefore, it is expected that the probability of ** will be dominated by ** for the time being, and at the same time, structural opportunities may be biased towards small and medium-sized growth. In the long run, there is still room for repair in the continuous decline of the market in the early stage and the deviation between the economic and market fundamentals, the relative easing of macro liquidity and micro funds at the beginning of the year, the performance vacuum after the end of the conditional mandatory pre-disclosure of the annual report, and the policy game before the blockbuster meeting in March. In the medium term, on the one hand, the current price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index are at the bottom of history, that is, it has a very high medium and long-term margin of safety and investment cost performance. On the other hand, although the foundation of the current economic recovery is not yet solid, the general direction of the recovery has not changed as the monetary policy continues to be loose and measures to stabilize growth have been implemented one after another. In addition, the Fed is expected to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts this year, external liquidity will continue to show an improving trend, and the medium-term market outlook remains positive. Operationally, heavy positions can continue to hold stocks to rise, of course, they can also sell high and buy low to make some price differences; Those with light positions are mainly wait-and-see for the time being, waiting for a certain ** to appear on the **, and then consider low buying in combination with the characteristics of the current market style.
IFC**Mao Rui SAC Practice Number: S1130622080021).