On the evening of January 30, 2024, CATL released a performance forecast, which is expected to have a net profit attributable to the parent company of 42.5 billion yuan and 45.5 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3831%~48.07%，This is the first time that CATL's annual net profit has exceeded 40 billion yuan。The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 38.5 billion yuan - 41.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3646%—47.09%。
As for the main reasons for the sharp year-on-year increase in performance, CATL said that the new energy industry at home and abroad has maintained a rapid growth rate, the power battery and energy storage industry market has continued to grow, and the transition to clean energy under the "dual carbon" goal is clear. As the world's leading new energy innovation and technology company, the company has continuously launched industry-leading product solutions and services by increasing R&D investment and innovation. During the reporting period, the company's new technologies and new products have been implemented one after another, the expansion of overseas markets has accelerated, the customer cooperative relationship has been further deepened, and the production and sales volume have grown rapidly, while also achieving good economic benefits.
Chart: Changes in CATL's net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.
Data**: Wind, as of 2023 annual report.
For the most recently disclosed performance report,Top investment banking teams at home and abroad are optimistic about the outlook
According to the new team of Soochow Electric, CATL's global share has reached a new high, and the profitability of batteries has been stable against the trend, the gap with second-tier battery factories has been maintained, and its competitiveness has continued to improve. In the first 11 months of 2023, CATL's global power share was 374%, an increase of 16pct, of which the November share was 409%, a new high; In the first 11 months, the domestic share exceeded 43%, and the overseas share was 308%, an increase of 125pct (35%+ share in Europe and 15%+ in the US market).
Citi said in the report that CATL's preliminary results for 2023 were better than some relatively cautious buyers' expectations, and it believed that the market was overly concerned about the company's battery profit margins. As an industry leader, CATL has been able to achieve lower costs than its peers through economies of scale and investment in upstream raw materials, and believes that the battery chain has experienced most of the price reduction cycle, and the space for further development is limited; The increase in production will be seen as early as March, as the seasonal effects subside and lithium prices stabilize.
CATL is the largest weighted stock on the GEM, accounting for as much as 15%, and the bottoming out of the new energy sector has also made the GEM index receive comprehensive attention from the market. From the perspective of historical review, the GEM index covers more growth industries, and the top two weighted industries, power equipment and pharmaceutical biology account for more than 50% of the total, of which new energy has contributed mainly to the rise and fall in the past four years.
Chart: GEM refers to the dismantling of core earnings.
Data**: Wind, as of December 31, 2023.
From a top-down perspective, looking forward to the whole year of 2024, the GEM index has improved at the numerator and denominator ends. Molecular end,GEM refers to the strong certainty of performance improvement, and the marginal improvement is the largest. Based on a bottom-up earnings** model adjusted for analyst expectation errors, earnings improved across most indices, with the ChiNext index seeing the highest improvement in 2024. Denominator end,Recently, the policy side has accelerated, domestic and foreign liquidity has loosened, and in the loose monetary environment, the GEM index, as the first growth style, is more sensitive to valuation and is expected to benefit.
Chart: Major broad-based index earnings** (adjusted for analyst expectation error).
Data**: Wind, as of January 31, 2024.
From the perspective of investment value, after the retreat of the GEM, the relative bottom-line value has gradually become prominent. Historically, the first two rounds of equity risk premiums above +1 standard deviation correspond to the index stage bottom. The risk premium in this round has reached the historical extreme, exceeding +2 times the standard deviation, and there is more room for the mean to recover. In terms of performance comparison, the GEM refers to maintaining a high performance growth rate and ranking among the top among the major broad bases. The Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) refers to the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of the year79%, and the wind consensus growth rate in 2024 and 2025 is 3493% and 2618%。
The ChiNext ETF (159915, over-the-counter connection Class A 110026 Class C 004744) tracks the ChiNext index and is the largest and most liquid related ETF in the current market.
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