Reference News Network, February 22**, According to German News Channel**February 21**, the Russian-Ukrainian war has had a significant impact on the German economy. Marcel Vlatzscher, director of the German Institute for Economic Research, told the German newspaper Rheinische Post: "Two years after the war in Ukraine, the economic cost to Germany could well exceed 200 billion euros. He said that the main reason is energy
"High energy costs, in particular, reduced Germany's economic growth by 2 percent in 2022," Vlatscher said5 percentage points, or 100 billion euros, and a similar reduction so far in 2023. However, this is only a "direct economic cost". The "escalation of geopolitical and geoeconomic conflicts" resulting from the war will incur additional costs. He explained that the impact on exporting enterprises is particularly severe.
The Rheinische Post also cites a yet-to-be-published study by the German Institute for Economic Research in Cologne. The war in Ukraine has so far cost Germany about 240 billion euros, according to the study. "Losses in 2022 were around 100 billion euros, rising to 140 billion euros in 2023," the study said. ”
According to the Rheinische Post, researchers at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research compared the actual development with the counterfactual situation without the war in Ukraine. When you take into account the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and geopolitical developments since the beginning of 2020, the German economy has lost 4% of its output. As a result, "consumption losses between 2020 and 2023 amount to 400 billion euros", which "corresponds to a loss of consumption per capita of about 4,800 euros", the study notes.
According to Vlatzscher, the costs of the war in Ukraine have disproportionately affected low-income people because they have experienced "inflation that is two to three times higher than that of high-income people." "Germany** mainly provides large-scale subsidy support for energy-intensive companies, while low-income earners have had to cut back significantly," he said. ”
At present, the state of economic development in Germany is causing widespread concern. Germany's economy minister, Robert Habeck, said last week that the situation was "extremely bad". He announced that he would increase his economic growth forecast for the year from 13% to just 02%。(Compiled by Mei Pengpeng).