The Year of the Dragon is here! I wish fans and friends, the spirit of Ryoma, the dragon soaring all over the world, peace and auspiciousness!
Just when everyone is happy to celebrate the Spring Festival, the first gift of the A** field has been given.
At the macro level, the central bank released financial data on Chinese New Year's Eve, and social financing increased by 6 percent in January5 trillion yuan, which is higher than the average market expectation of wind statistics (about 5.).8 trillion yuan), an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year; The growth rate of social financing stock was 95%ï¼›Medium and long-term loans to residents increased by 627.2 billion yuan, an increase of 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year; M1 increased by 59%, an increase of 4 from the previous month6 percentage points, historically, this data has brought a very significant boost to the market.
At the hot spot level, the popularity of new quality productivity is continuing to soar. Domestically, on January 31, the senior management once again emphasized that the development of new quality productivity is an internal requirement and an important focus to promote high-quality development, and it is necessary to continue to do a good job in innovation to accelerate the development of new quality productivity; On the periphery, Nvidia has made another new move, planning to seek $30 billion worth of custom chip opportunities through new divisions.
With the support of financial data, there is an opportunity for the release of hot spots. Is the market opportunity already here?
Nice data
On February 9, the central bank released financial credit data for January, and the scale of social financing increased by 6 in Januarytrillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year; In January, 484 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.3 billion yuan; M2 +8 YoY70%, M1 +590%。Historically, the most important variable in the secondary market is M1, which has been running at a low level in the second half of last year, so the overall equity market is also relatively weak. This time, the growth rate of M1 can be described as a jump, with an increase of 4 in January compared to the previous month6 percent. This will undoubtedly give a greater boost to **.
CICC believes that although the dislocation of the Spring Festival will affect the growth of M1, even if this factor is excluded, the growth rate of M1 will still improve. From the perspective of seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth, the annualized month-on-month growth rate of M1 in January 2024 is 95%, compared with other January months with similar Spring Festival effects, this month-on-month growth rate is on the high side. In addition, in the context of weak real estate sales, the growth rate of M1 can still improve, mainly reflecting the results of policy efforts, and PSL-supported projects and newly issued treasury bond projects may have been quickly implemented, partially offsetting the drag of real estate. The year-on-year growth rate of fiscal deposits is still rising, indicating that there may still be some funds that can boost M1 in the future.
Everbright** believes that the credit data in the first quarter has "four highs":
The first high: significantly higher than market expectations. According to the results of the Reuters survey, the consensus expectation for credit increment in January 2024 is 45 trillion yuan, while the actual value is 492 trillion yuan, the actual value greatly exceeded the expected value.
The second high: further high growth on the high base of the same period last year. After the transition of epidemic prevention and control, the credit demand accumulated in the past three years was released in a concentrated manner, resulting in a significant increase in RMB loans in January last year. In January this year, 492 trillion yuan, a further increase from the high base of the same period last year, and also set a new high in the history of a single month increment.
The third high: the increase in medium and long-term loans is high. In January added 4Among the 92 trillion yuan of loans, medium and long-term loans accounted for about 80%, accounting for 394 trillion yuan, also forming the highest value in a single month in history. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 331 trillion yuan, exceeding the cumulative increase in the last four months of last year (i.e., September to December), reflecting the growth of corporate investment confidence and willingness.
The fourth high: the effective demand is higher than the actual figure. In January this year, the monetary authorities scientifically guided the pace of credit delivery, so that financial institutions finally restrained their excessive lending impulses. In other words, the real demand for credit in the real economy is stronger than the data suggests. This can be observed from the bill market interest rate: when the bank actively controls the progress of credit delivery, the bill market interest rate will be subject to upward pressure, and the credit control of financial institutions often occurs in the second half of the month, so the trend of the bill market interest rate at the end of each month has a good reference for judging credit demand. The upward trend in the rediscount rate at the end of January 2024 reflects the good demand for credit at this stage, when banks actively controlled the scale of credit disbursement.
Nice hotspot
In addition to financial data, market hotspots are also taking shape. Compared with AI at the beginning of last year, this year is driven by both internal and external factors.
First of all, from an internal point of view, on January 31, 2024, the senior management emphasized that the development of new quality productivity is an internal requirement and an important focus to promote high-quality development, and it is necessary to continue to do a good job in innovation to accelerate the development of new quality productivity.
On August 22, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Energy Administration, and the National Standards Committee, issued the Implementation Plan for the New Industry Standardization Pilot Project (2023 2035). The article points out: "New industries refer to emerging industries and future industries that apply new technologies to develop and grow, which have the characteristics of active innovation, technology-intensive and broad development prospects, which are related to the overall situation of national economic and social development and industrial structure optimization and upgrading." "We believe that to a large extent, the industry scope has been framed for the new quality productivity and the emerging industries and future industries it covers, which can be used as the industrial layout direction of the future new quality productivity, mainly including eight emerging industries and nine future industries.
Emerging industries include a new generation of information technology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, civil aviation, shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment, etc.; Future industries include metaverse, brain-computer interfaces, quantum information, humanoid robots, generative artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, future displays, future networks, and new energy storage.
Zheshang ** believes that as the economy can hit a high level, it is expected that the risk-free interest rate will show a fluctuating downward trend in the second half of the year, and the confidence of the superimposed market will be steadily restored.
Secondly, AI and computing power have advanced again. According to Reuters, Nvidia is building a new business unit focused on designing custom chips for cloud computing companies and other companies, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang previously said at the meeting that the first wave of AI originated from startups such as OpenAI, and the industry has entered the second wave, enterprise-level AI promoted by Microsoft Copilot, and OpenAI to further promote the popularization of AI terminal applications.
The market for custom chips for data centers will grow to $10 billion this year and double by 2025, according to research firm 650 Group's Alan Weckel. According to Needham analyst Charles Shi, the broader custom chip market will be worth about $30 billion in 2023, accounting for about 5% of global chip annual sales.
Editor-in-charge: Tactical Heng.
Proofreading: Zhao Yan.