Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, it has been two full years. Both Russia and Ukraine have introduced new technologies, new equipment, and new tactics, and have fought a large-scale, high-intensity, and high-tech "World War I-style trench warfare" for a long time, and have not yet won or lost.
Outside the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, the political game between China, the United States, Russia and Europe has never stopped.
Although there is still no sign of the end of the war, the initiative in the war is firmly in the hands of the Russians.
Reflecting on the history of modern warfare, the Americans invaded Iraq and beat Saddam Hussein and Afghanistan and beat the Taliban.
The same thing, the Americans could not do back then, but the Russians did it, but in a different battlefield.
In the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia has already gotten the results it wants.
Leaving aside the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has been in possession for a full decade, the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, which account for one-sixth of Ukraine's total area, add up to about 1090,000 square kilometers of land have also been pocketed by Russia.
The war has been fought until now
It is Ukraine that has lost 20 million people.
It is also Ukraine that forces women and old people into battle.
In winter, Ukraine is still without water and electricity in most parts of the country.
It was Ukraine that was sent back from the industrial countries to the agrarian countries.
And it is still Ukraine that broadcasts all kinds of "victories" ** on the Internet every day.
However, the Russians are not showing their secret efforts, and when the war enters 2024, when Ukraine suddenly looks back, it will realize -
Ukraine's population has been cut off, as the younger generation between the ages of 18 and 35 has all been sent to the battlefield, and the birth rate of Ukraine in 2023 is only 08%
In other words, for every 100 Ukrainians of childbearing age, in the entire 2023 year, only 08 Ukrainian babies.
What is this concept?
This means that if the Russian-Ukrainian war lasts for ten or eight years, in terms of population base alone, Ukraine will already face the risk of national extinction.
The two-year Russian-Ukrainian war, regardless of military gains and losses, in other aspects, Russia has not only crushed Ukraine's economy, but also cut off Ukraine's blood demographically.
On the other hand, Russia, despite the fact that the West has been continuously sanctioning Russia and vigorously assisting Ukraine, the growth rate of Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 has reached 35%, becoming the largest economy in Europe.
Now Ukraine, except to take a lot of NATO equipment and fill the trenches with the bodies and corpses of its own people, there is really no other way.
However, even so, the Russian-Ukrainian war is far from over......
Looking at the strategic layout of the world today, the game between major powers is very complicated.
From the perspective of the United States, the Russian-Ukrainian war is a first-class war, since there is no need for Americans to fight in person, then a protracted war can be used to continue to bleed Russia until the blood bar is exhausted, repeating the mistakes of the former Soviet Union.
This move can not only justifiably consume Russia's national strength through war means and economic sanctions, but also make it fall from a second-rate country to a third-rate or even a fourth-rate country.
More importantly, the United States, which is in an all-round economic and military decline, can take this opportunity to lead the Western forces to aid Ukraine with "justice" as the embodiment and reinvigorate its global "leader" status with the help of the European Union.
Ironically, the United States has led the way in sanctioning Russia, while at the same time increasing imports of Russian oil and gas.
The Americans sold Russian oil and gas at low prices and then sold them to European countries. In order to monopolize energy, the United States even blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, which transport gas from Russia to Europe through the Baltic Sea.
Immediately, most of Europe's large enterprises that rely on energy to survive have gone to the United States to invest, and Europe has been deindustrialized by the United States. With a large number of dollars and euros flowing from Europe to the United States, the unemployment rate in European countries in 2023 hit a record high in 50 years.
Along with energy problems, the dollar has repeatedly raised interest rates and the euro has repeatedly depreciated. The United States uses Ukrainian lives to weaken Russia's national strength, and incidentally harvests the European economy and the European market, leading to social unrest in Europe, which has caused a series of social problems.
Therefore, the longer the Russia-Ukraine war stalemates, the greater the benefits to the United States.
And the eastern powers on the other side of the globe, of course, do not want Russia to lose.
Once Russia loses, the declining United States will once again become a dominant "world policeman."
Once Russia is defeated, in the future great power wrestling, the eastern powers will have to contend with Europe and the United States alone, and in addition to the continuous disruption of Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia in the Asia-Pacific region, the next situation of the eastern powers, especially in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, will become even more difficult.
The current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is most in line with the interests of the eastern powers.
At present, Russia is under Western sanctions, not only overseas funds are frozen, but even domestic exports of oil, natural gas and other energy resources are greatly restricted.
Therefore, in the past two years, the big eastern countries have been able to purchase a large amount of oil, natural gas and other energy resources from Russia at a very low level and with RMB as the settlement unit, and constantly expand their strategic reserves.
At the same time, the major countries in the East have reached a preliminary memorandum of cooperation with Iran and oil-producing countries in the Middle East on oil imports, with the renminbi as the settlement unit and with the participation of multiple parties, which has dealt a powerful blow to the hegemony of the US dollar in the global economy.
In addition, at a time when the European Union was temporarily de-industrialized by the United States due to energy problems, and the industrial capacity of European countries was seriously insufficient, the big eastern countries filled this market in a timely manner.
In 2023, the EU's imports to the largest countries in the East amounted to 856.3 billion euros, a record high.
Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian war continues in the current undefeated and undefeated situation between the two sides, without talking about discord, and continuing in the way and rhythm of fighting and stopping, which is most beneficial to the eastern powers.
However, the Russian-Ukrainian war has become such a situation, which makes the EU extremely passive and embarrassing. Everyone else is a beneficiary, and he becomes an unlucky person.
In 2024, the EU's most urgent wish is to end this war as soon as possible!
The EU countries are clearly aware that in this Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for two years, so far, the United States and the eastern powers, and even Russia, have become vested interests, and only themselves and Ukraine have become victims of being used by the United States.
EU countries often wonder if this Russia-Ukraine war is a conspiracy concocted by the United States and Russia.
This war has been fought so far, and the biggest losses are not only Ukraine, but also European countries.
Don't say that Ukraine can't win against Russia at all, and even if it wins Russia, what can it do?
In today's Ukraine, most of the elites have fled their country "reasonably and legally", and the Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting bloody on the front line are the lowest social groups in the country of Ukraine.
When these men, even women, who are at the bottom of Ukrainian society, fight to the death for their motherland and Russia in the midst of bullets, can they ever think that what they are defending with their blood and lives is only the interests of Americans.
Most of the military aid from the European Union is gratuitous, while the aid from the Americans comes with an agreement.
The Americans' money is not given for nothing, these agreements, including the purchase of equipment for the Ukrainian army, as well as the comprehensive reconstruction of industrial and municipal infrastructure, have been planned by the plutocracy on Wall Street in the United States.
This is the tragedy of Ukraine, even if it wins the final victory in the war, or ends in a truce in negotiations, Ukraine will eventually become a vassal of the United States, and its national lifeblood will be controlled by the United States from now on.
As for the EU, European countries have never expected Ukraine to defeat Russia. Russia, which has more than 5,000 nuclear bombs, how can it be defeated by Ukraine?
The EU countries know this, and they know that they will not find the slightest benefit in Ukraine, but why do they still support Ukraine without hesitation?
The EU supports Ukraine because it cannot sit idly by and watch Ukraine become "one federation" of Russia. If that happens, the consequences will be devastating.
Russia occupied Crimea, and the EU did not want to deal with it at first.
But then, the Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Zaporozhye region and Kherson region were successively incorporated into Russia, and the EU had to take care of it.
If it does not intervene, then Russia still wants Chernihiv, Kharkov, Odessa, and then what will the EU do?
In the future, if Kyiv and Lviv are annexed by Russia, will it be Poland's turn?
Then Europe is finished!
So, the EU must intervene, but the intensity of the intervention is limited, and the EU does not want to enter into a conflict with Russia.
But is the quagmire of war a way for you to want to get involved but don't want to get your little white shoes dirty?
Moreover, the EU could not stand the fact that since World War II, the Americans who have been professionally stirring for 80 years fanned the flames, so they had to be passively used as guns by the Americans and forced to become Biden's pawns.
The Americans played a shrewd calculation, fighting with Russia with the lives of Ukrainians, using European money as a backup for Ukraine, and watching the fire from the other side, watching the cranes and mussels fight, and reaping the benefits of fishermen.
In the end, the United States achieved the ultimate goal of dragging Russia down, dismembering and dividing the European Union, defeating the euro, and rebuilding the dollar and American hegemony in the world.
Therefore, European countries know that Ukraine is a pit, and now they have to muster up the courage to jump down.
On February 1, 2024, in Brussels, Belgium, at an extraordinary summit of the leaders of the 27 countries of the European Union, the leaders of the 27 countries of the European Union agreed on 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine over the next four years.
The purpose is not to hope that Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia, because this is simply impossible.
The reason why the EU will increase military aid to Ukraine in the next 4 years is just to allow Ukraine to have capital under certain conditions, and it is also qualified to bring Russia back to the negotiating table and finally reach a truce.
Only in this way can the EU get out of the predicament as soon as possible, without worrying about Russia's westward expansion, nor worrying about being dismembered by the Americans, and finally ranking the third largest economy in the world after the United States and China, and winning a place for European countries in the increasingly fierce market competition in the way of group heating.
To put it bluntly, everything is for the sake of profit, and not for the self-proclaimed "universal values" of the West.
However, the Russians are not stupid, and the Russians have the essence of the art of war of Zeng Guofan 170 years ago. Zeng Guofan's magic weapon summed up in the previous battles with the Taiping Army-
Tie the hard village, dumbfounded.
The so-called "hardening the village and fighting in a daze" means choosing the most favorable terrain for one's own side to set up camp, digging trenches and hedgerows, and isolating oneself from the enemy army.
Zeng Guofan claimed to:"I used soldiers in my life, I lost too much, I stayed in one place, the old man was stubborn, and the soldiers were stupid."
In the 13 years of suppressing the Taiping Army, Zeng Guofan experienced countless tough battles, relying on this kind of "hard village" to seek self-protection first, and "fight dumb battles" by ants gnawing bones.
The current Russian army is well aware of this:
The victory or defeat of the war is not about conquering cities, but about destroying the living forces of the other side. Based on the comparison of the size of the Russian and Ukrainian armies, Russia is sure that as long as the blood of Ukraine is drained, then the final winner will be Russia.
In this case, with its back to the rear, occupying convenient supply conditions, comfortably eating the Ukrainian army raw, and slowly exhausting Ukraine's blood bar, has become the main tactic of the Russian army at present.
Emperor Pu was a great man who knew the laws of war very well, and he never only talked about reality, and even didn't care about his own face at all.
At the beginning of the war, the Russian army went deep into Kyiv and was driven out by the Ukrainian army. Under the city of Kharkiv, the Russian army was beaten by the Ukrainian army again, and when it arrived in Izyum, it was still beaten by the Ukrainian army and lost its armor, so that the character of the world's second military power was shattered.
Despite this, the Russian army still took the initiative to carry out the retreat of Kherson and gave up Kherson, thus crossing the river with the Ukrainian army to defend it.
However, it doesn't matter if you lose face on the surface, the Russian army will go down next and insist on **Mute.
During Wagner's 7 months in **Mute, he clocked in and out of work every day and got money after work, just like that, the blood of the Ukrainian army has been almost released, and its weak national strength is barely supported by the assistance of the United States, Britain and the European Union.
Compared with the ruins in Ukraine, Russia is running and dancing. Despite the total sanctions imposed by the West, they have not affected the daily lives of ordinary people at all.
Its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2023 also exceeded 35%, surpassing France and Germany, and becoming the largest economy in Europe.
What's more critical is that for the Russian army squatting on the border and continuing to bleed the Ukrainian army, neither Ukraine, the United States, the United Kingdom, nor the European Union have any way to crack this trick.
If this continues, no matter how much aid the United States, Britain and the European Union give to Ukraine, there will be no substantial blood return effect, and Ukraine will be dragged to death on the border by Russia little by little.
The current Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is very similar to the two-mountain round battle of our army on the southwest border in the eighties of the last century.
I'm sure I can kill you, but I'm biting you slowly and slowly biting you in small bites, letting you blood little by little, consuming you, dragging you to death, until you admit it, until you surrender!
At the same time, they also dragged the ** people who kept transfusing blood to you behind your back.
And the United States, Britain and the European Union are the helpers behind Ukraine's blood transfusion.
It is precisely because Russia has seen through this that it has adopted this current strategy and tactics. This is exactly the same as the 10-year border war that our army fought in the southwestern frontier in those years.
To sum up, the Russia-Ukraine war is not just a war between Russia and Ukraine, and there is an undercurrent surging in it, involving the vital interests of several major powers around the world.
Therefore, as a small citizen, as a netizen who eats melons on the Internet all day long, you don't have to choose a side, there is no need to fan Russia or Ukraine.
We should look at this war rationally from the standpoint of our own country.
What we must know is that if Russia is determined to fight this war indefinitely, with its own oil, steel, food, and population as the support of hard power, it is fully capable of turning this war into a protracted war for ten or eight years.
If this is the case, then the United States and the European Union will sanction Russia and ban Russian oil and gas exports, and we will buy these products from Russia in large quantities at a lower price, and speed up the process of settling petroleum products with Chinese yuan with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries.
At that time, the renminbi will surely replace the US dollar and become the only currency for settling oil and gas in the international market.
As a result, the collapse of the dollar will be only instantaneous. Once the hegemony of the US dollar in the global economy is ended, the United States will also fall from the altar, and the unilateral hegemonism that has held the world for more than 80 years will be completely wiped out.
With the decline of the national power of the United States, our Belt and Road Initiative will not be hindered by any Western power and will be able to be completed early. When our national strength accumulates to a certain point, will the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea still become problems?
This is the fortune of the country, the fortune of a great country!
In today's world, we should clearly see and deeply comprehend -
Global power competition has nothing to do with bullshit "universal values", let alone the so-called "justice and injustice", and the starting point of everything is only closely related to one's own interests.