Seon lost his horse, how to know if it is a blessing!
Many things happen in life, often by chance. The same is true in the field of medicine.
For example, in the 80s of the last century, the overseas pharmaceutical giant Pfizer spent great efforts to research a drug for coronary heart disease, but the final clinical trial results were disappointing and less than expected.
However, in the course of the experiment, the researchers found that some patients who received the drug** developed erections. Pfizer took advantage of this to develop the drug Viagra, commonly known as the "little blue pill", to solve the needs of many men.
For another example, the first-class drug that led the market with the explosion of the movie "Hot and Hot" is actually "unintentionally inserted into the willows", from a hypoglycemic drug specially developed for diabetes to a first-class weapon.
* The resurgence of the concept of medicine has once again attracted widespread attention from the market to Changshan Pharmaceutical, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Hanyu Pharmaceutical and other related companies.
However, judging from the current news, we still need to remain calm, such as Changshan Pharmaceutical has repeatedly publicly stated that the company's research and development of ebenatide does not involve obesity indications, and the company has not yet carried out clinical trials for obesity or weight loss. This also shows that even if Changshan Pharmaceutical has the potential to be a first-class drug, it is difficult to see the product on the market in the short term, because no matter whether the clinical trials of each phase are carried out or approved for marketing, the time required is not short.
In fact, in addition to obesity and diabetes, complications are also a big problem faced by diabetic patients. According to statistics, diabetes is a disease with the most known complications, with more than 100 kinds of common ones, such as diabetic nephropathy and diabetic retinopathy.
For diabetes mellitus (type 2)**, the main way is the use of insulin and hypoglycemic drugs. For complications such as diabetes kidney and sugar reticulation, traditional Chinese medicine is often more symptomatic.
The characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine are stronger than Western medicine in terms of physical function, circulation, mental psychology, immunity, etc., but its hypoglycemic effect is poor.
At present, there are not many Chinese patent medicines for type 2 diabetes, and Yiling Pharmaceutical's Jinlida Granules is the only drug recommended by the medication guidelines.
However, when it comes to diabetic complications, Tasly has a unique advantage.
Tasly has two products, Compound Danshen Dripping Pill and Qishen Yiqi Dripping Pill, which are symptomatic diabetic reticulum and glycosemic kidney, respectively. At present, the indication of glucose and kidney of Qishen Yiqi Dripping Pill is in the clinical stage, and we will not expand on this too much, mainly focusing on Compound Danshen Dripping Pill.
In October 2021, the indication of compound Danshen dripping pill sugar reticulum was approved for marketing, mainly for non-proliferative diabetic reticulation patients**. According to the data, there are currently about 16.66 million non-proliferative diabetic patients in China.
Since the early symptoms of diabetic reticulation are not obvious and the screening rate is relatively low, we assume that the penetration rate of compound Danshen Dripping Pill for the indication of diabetic reticulation will reach 06%, which means that in 2023, there will be about 100,000 diabetic patients using Compound Danshen Dripping Pills.
Combined with compound salvia dripping pills are expected to be about 18With a factory price of 26 yuan and a dosage of about 7 3 boxes per patient per week, the company's income is about 1022 per person after a course of treatment under the premise that the patient can stick to a course of treatment for 24 weeks56 yuan. Based on this, we can estimate that in 2023, the indication of compound Danshen dripping pills will bring about 100 million yuan of revenue to the company.
Moreover, with the gradual popularization of portable devices such as fundus cameras, the screening rate of fundus diseases will be greatly increased in the future, assuming that the penetration rate of compound Danshen Dripping Pill for the indication of sugar reticulation will reach 6% in 2030, and the annual rate of diabetic reticulum patients will be 0The growth rate of 2% is slowly increasing, and the above other conditions remain unchanged, and it is expected that the market size of compound Danshen Dripping Pill for the indication of sugar reticulation will reach 1 billion level.
In addition, Tasly's compound Danshen Dripping Pill also has obvious competitive advantages in the field of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
According to statistics, whether in the hospital market or the retail market, in 2022, Compound Danshen Dripping Pill will rank among the top three in the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular Chinese patent medicine market.
Compared with competing products such as Buchang Pharmaceutical's Naoxintong Capsule and Yiling Pharmaceutical's Tongxinluo Capsule, Compound Danshen Dripping Pill is more widely applicable and has a lower average daily cost.
In addition to compound salvia dripping pills, the company also holds the leading product line of nourishing serum brain.
Nourishing serum brain series products are mainly used for migraine, and there are two kinds of serum-nourishing brain granules and nourishing serum-brain pills. In 2022, the market share of serum brain products in public hospitals was 4157%, of which, the market share of serum brain granules reached 3087%, at the top of the list.
In addition, the development of Alzheimer's (AD) indication is also underway, and the phase II clinical trial is currently progressing. If the AD indication of serum brain nourishment is approved for marketing, the company will usher in a new growth curve.
It can be said that Tasly is very much in line with Lin Yuan's "three highs" investment logic.
The three highs refer to "diabetes + hypertension + heart disease", these three major diseases are chronic diseases of the elderly, and their drugs have high frequency and addiction. According to the data, Sangao has generated more than 7% of the sales of the entire pharmaceutical industry. Under the current trend of population aging, the investment logic of the three highs is more certain.
So, what about Tasly's performance with such a high degree of certainty?
Judging from the revenue data of the past ten years, from 2014 to 2019, Tasly's performance grew steadily, reaching a peak of 19 billion in 2019, while the annual growth rate was negative.
The reason for the negative growth in performance in 2020-2021 is mainly due to the company's gradual adjustment of business segments, ** Tianshi marketing equity, focusing on the pharmaceutical industry. From 2019 to 2022, the proportion of the company's pharmaceutical business revenue decreased from 67% to 16%.
After adjustment, the company's performance has bottomed out since 2022, and its revenue in 2022 will be 859.3 billion, although the net profit was -256.5 billion, but the main reason is that the capital market has adjusted sharply, and the fair value of financial assets held by the company has declined, which has nothing to do with normal operations; In the first three quarters of 2023, the revenue was 657.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 715%；Achieved a net profit of 103.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 400%.
Since the gradual divestment of the pharmaceutical business segment, the company's cash expenditure on the purchase of goods and services has decreased, and the operating cash flow has improved significantly. In 2021 and 2022, the company achieved operating cash flow of 280100 million, 228.5 billion, with an operating cash flow of 109 billion.
In addition, the divestiture of the pharmaceutical business segment has also effectively improved the company's gross profit margin, which has remained at about 65% since 2021, which is about 30 percentage points higher than the previous average. As a result, the company's sales expense ratio increased by about 20 percentage points on average compared with the pre-divestiture period, which is less than the increase in gross margin, so it is reasonable to assume that the company's divestiture of the pharmaceutical business was successful, regardless of other conditions.
At present, the company is still further divesting the pharmaceutical business segment, and in September 2023, the company signed an agreement to transfer the retail pharmacy business to the common people of Shuyu.
Finally, to sum up. Tasly's products not only occupy advantages in the field of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, but also have a wide range of indications. Compared with indications such as coronary heart disease, compound Danshen Dripping Pill has a larger potential target population for diabetic reticulation indications, and the company's nourishing serum brain has the concept of Alzheimer's, which further opens up the imagination space. With the adjustment of the company's business, combined with the current warm policy environment of traditional Chinese medicine, the future of Tasly is worth imagining.
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**: Flying Whale Investment Research