As 2023 is about to pass, the liquor market has ushered in many changes, and industry experts have made forward-looking analyses of the development in 2024. In this year, the liquor industry may usher in a series of new trends, highlighting a strong momentum of development.
Review in 2023: strong performance resilience and weakening of industry cycle attributes
In terms of performance, the liquor industry has shown strong resilience. Although the industry is under pressure in the prosperity stage, the overall revenue growth rate in the first three quarters is still between 14% and 19%, and the profit growth rate is more stable, located in the range of 17% and 20%. This shows that the liquor industry can still maintain a relatively stable growth trend in the face of external pressure. From the perspective of the regional market, the liquor market sector of Jiangsu and Anhui presents a pattern of Suhui liquor, high-end liquor, sub-high-end liquor and other liquor companies.
The cyclical nature of the liquor industry is relatively weakened and is no longer as obvious as in the past. By comparing the performance of the liquor sector with the CSI 300, it can be observed that the liquor as a whole does not show significant cyclical attributes. This is also reflected in the market's understanding of the liquor cycle has changed, and the response at the valuation level is gradually changing.
Differentiation will increase in 2023: competition among wine companies will become more intense
Differentiation is one of the notable features of the liquor industry in 2023. From multiple perspectives such as inventory, batch price, and task objectives, high-end and regional leading wine companies perform relatively well, while sub-high-end wine companies are facing certain pressure. In addition, there is also a differentiation within the sub-high-end, some companies such as Fenjiu have performed relatively well overall, Shuijingfang has gradually seen an inflection point after experiencing active adjustment, and Jiujiu Liquor is still in the process of adjustment and reform. This shows that under the weak economy, the competitive advantages of wine companies are quite different.
In terms of inventory, high-end wines are basically stable as a whole, while sub-high-end wines are clearly differentiated. In terms of wholesale prices, the wholesale prices of famous wines are generally under certain pressure, but there are large differences in the range of different brands. In terms of task objectives and completion, leading enterprises are more likely to be able to complete the annual goals. In terms of consumption scenarios, the demand for banquets is strong, while business activities are relatively average, especially the demand for sub-high-end liquor has been affected to a certain extent.
Five predictions for 2024: new trends in the liquor market
Ultra-high-end and high-end: Moutai leads, and the thousand-yuan ** belt pattern or breaks the steady state.
In terms of ultra-high-end, Moutai is expected to continue to lead in 2024. Moutai's history of price increases shows that price increases are expected to greatly boost the company's performance. At the same time, the pattern of 1,000 yuan ** belt may be differentiated, and wine companies with outstanding management advantages may stand out from the competition.
Sub-high-end and mass-market ** bands: business margins have improved, and competition has accelerated.
With the gradual recovery of business activities, the demand for sub-high-end ** belts is expected to improve. Below the 300 yuan ** band, the phenomenon of famous wine sinking and local wine attack will be further intensified, driving the competition to become fierce.
The change of fragrance type: the "eve of the final" of sauce fragrance and the "critical year" of fragrance
In terms of flavor, soy sauce wine ushered in a concentrated explosion of production capacity, and the first end may usher in new challenges. The fragrant liquor, especially Fenjiu, will focus on the high-end market of more than 1,000 yuan in 2024, which is expected to change the inherent impression that "the fragrance is difficult to be high-end".
Changes in channels: The fusion of beer and white brings new changes.
In 2024, the fusion of beer and white is expected to bring new changes. In this regard, the promotion of China Resources will bring a new pattern to the liquor market. Although the current progress is relatively modest and orderly, in 2024, the company is expected to increase the intensity of expenses and the pace of integration.
Consumption scenario: The popularity of the banquet market may continue until 2024.
The banquet market has performed strongly in 2023 and is expected to continue in 2024 due to the recovery of multiple holidays. Considering the population base and the demand of different scenarios, the banquet market will continue to be an important driving factor for the liquor market.