"When things go wrong, there must be demons", when the people's funds are in short supply, some "abnormalities."
Time is like an arrow, and a flash is a few days. Starting from next year, we can see that this year is the first time that China has relaxed the control of the epidemic, and at the same time, China's economy has maintained relatively rapid development.
It is estimated that by 2023, China's GDP will grow at a rate of 5.2 percent.
Although last year did not meet the expectations of "revenge" spending, the released figures show that the real estate market is recovering fast, while consumption in the service sector is also growing rapidly. The annual retail sales of full-caliber goods were 471495 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2 percent.
Although this number exceeded their expectations, judging from the comments on the Internet, it seems that they are not in a very good mood.
Some people in the industry believe that in addition to the above-mentioned factors, the most obvious problems this year include a series of problems such as the retaliatory growth of residents' savings, the intensification of real estate adjustment, and the difficulty of employment.
But there are also many people who leave a message below: "Why is it that our economy is getting better and better, but I can't make much money?" "Many people have said that from the beginning to the present, not a penny has been earned, and, in the process, an "abnormal" thing has happened:
Interest on savings has fallen.
Residents are highly motivated to save.
From 2023 onwards, major banks across the country are constantly lowering interest rates, and by 2024, interest rates will fall below 3% for three years and less than 2% for one year.
However, even in the case of continuous interest on savings, people's enthusiasm for saving has not only not decreased, but has increased, and even many young people who have had advanced consumption habits in the past now have the concept of saving.
The reasons are: first, after more than three years of the epidemic, the psychological expectations of many people have been greatly reduced, and they are afraid that there will be unemployment, illness and other emergencies in the future.
In addition, the risk of loss in the asset market such as wealth management is also increasing, and many investors who do not like high risk would rather keep their funds in the bank, which will not bring much profit, but at least the principal and interest can be guaranteed, and there will not be too much loss.
The good news of the bailout is endless.
The property market is still sluggish.
From 2023 onwards, the real estate industry will usher in a round of regulation, and more than 700 incentive policies have been launched nationwide, but these policies have not improved the confidence of residents, but have worried many home buyers, because they are afraid that depreciation will occur after the purchase.
For example, in January next year, some banks lowered the interest rate on loans for first homes, and places like Suzhou began to ease restrictions on housing. In addition, Shanghai has also relaxed restrictions on non-hukou singles outside the outer ring road.
Despite the continued good news about the property market, housing prices nationwide continued to decline in January. According to the statistics of CRIC Research Institute, the top 100 real estate companies completed only 2,350 in JanuarySales of 600 million yuan decreased by 34 compared with the same period last year2%, down 47. from the same period last year9%, a month of sales reached the lowest point in recent years.
The trading volume of the key 30 cities generally maintained the trend of bottoming. In particular, the total sales of first- and second-tier cities fell by 22% year-on-year and 38% year-on-year. Housing prices in Shanghai and Beijing exceeded 40% from the previous month**; Total sales in second- and third-tier cities fell by 44% and 18% respectively compared to the same period last year.
The reason is that the property market has no profitability, and buyers are waiting and seeing. On the other hand, the general public lacks confidence in the real estate market. Among them, many developers are in arrears, and there are unfinished real estate, which makes many people who want to buy a house suspicious, afraid that they will also encounter unfinished buildings.
But there are also concerns that developers may cut corners, resulting in a decline in the quality of new developments.
After the free opening of three children.
The national fertility rate continues to be sluggish.
Not long ago, the United States released a new baby statistics, by 2023, China will welcome 9.02 million babies, and the birth rate will reach 639 percentage points, while the organic increase will reach 148 percentage points.
Why don't young people want children? First of all, high housing prices have put a heavy burden on ordinary families, and a large part of their monthly salary has to be used to pay off the mortgage, and the rest of the money can only barely make ends meet. In such an environment, no one has the strength to take care of children anymore.
However, the cost of marriage is too high for many people to afford, and you think, if you don't have a partner, where will there be children;
Moreover, the cost of raising a child is too high, and the cost of raising and educating at least hundreds of thousands, which is why many people do not want more children.
So in general, Chinese youth don't want children, and the biggest problem is money.
The needs of the general population.
A long depression.
At the beginning, many experts expected a revenge spending.
However, judging from the situation in 2022, this revenge consumption is mainly concentrated in low-end markets such as catering and tourism, while the demand for consumer goods such as mid-to-high-end luxury goods, automobiles and home appliances has been stagnant, and many manufacturers are doing various preferential activities to stimulate consumption.
The reason for this anomaly is that many middle-class people have lost their incomes or lost their jobs, which has reduced their desire to buy mid-to-high-end products.
Moreover, it will take some time for the decline in consumer demand from the middle class to fully recover, and it will depend on the level of household wages and expectations for future income growth.
To put it bluntly, a person's income cannot be improved, and there is not enough expectation for the stability of work and income, even if they are given enough incentives, it is impossible to expand domestic demand.
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