Kunpeng Plan Question 1: What is China's GDP growth rate in 2024?
Qiu Xiaohua: Looking at the economic trend in 2024, at least we can see that the following points are certain. First, a positive policy orientation is certain. Second, the impact of the pandemic is far away. Third, the external environment has moderated to a certain extent, so these three are relatively certain.
For example, this year is a big year for international politics, and elections will be held in many countries and regions, which will often bring about some instability in world politics. Second, it should be said that the risk of conflict in this region still exists, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not yet ended, and it remains to be seen what the outcome will be.
Third, should it be said that these macroeconomic policies of the entire West, did he just write down a rest, or did he say that he would resume the pace of continuous adjustment? So everyone knows that he continues to raise interest rates aggressively, and the negative benefits have spilled over, and if he continues to raise interest rates again, it will further affect the world, which is also a certain amount of uncertainty.
We are also facing the risks of real estate, small and medium-sized financial institutions, and some risks of local debt.
Therefore, in 2024, we are moving forward in the whole certainty and uncertainty, but from the current point of view, on the whole, it should be said that the opportunities for development are still stronger than the challenges of development. Therefore, as long as we can better grasp certainty and overcome uncertainty more effectively, it should be said that there is still a great possibility that China's economy will maintain a growth rate of about 5% in 2024.
Question 2: How do you see the temperature difference between macro data and micro feelings?
Qiu Xiaohua: In the past year, that is, in 2023, this contrast does exist objectively, on the one hand, the whole macro has temperature, but on the other hand, the micro does feel cold.
Because it is still difficult for a large number of enterprises to make money, the pressure of loss is relatively large, coupled with the difficulty of employment of young people, and the level of the entire price is relatively low, so that enterprises do bring a lot of pressure to make money. But realistically, these conditions are likely to improve in 2024.
On the one hand, we can see that the macro policy of the whole country this year is still a positive orientation, so he will sometimes bring positive impetus to the expansion of domestic demand, the optimization of the business environment of enterprises, the activity of raising prices, and the enhancement of corporate profits. Therefore, the improvement at the micro level throughout this year should be accompanied by the macroeconomic improvement, which may not be the same as last year.
Therefore, from this point of view, I think the macro and micro contrast will be narrower in 2024 than in 2023.
Question 3: Where should the policy be strengthened?
Qiu Xiaohua: I think first of all, we still have to send money to the people, the three-year epidemic has brought a lot of pressure to everyone, we should give him a certain amount of compensation, improve the consumption and purchasing power of residents, and we should take action in this regard.
Second, we should really solve some of the difficulties and pain points that the people are concerned about, such as social security, medical care, and education.
Thirdly, I think that we should indeed have higher requirements for this kind of quality, this kind of technical requirements and this kind of product performance requirements for everyone's consumption, then we should improve the structure of supply, to provide better products and better services to the people, so that we can also expand consumption, and use supply to generate new demand, so as to bring about the improvement of the whole consumption, which is what he should do.
In terms of investment, we should also continue to focus on our shortcomings, such as the shortcomings of science and technology, for example, some shortcomings in rural areas, and for example, the problem that public goods and public services that everyone is concerned about are not enough, so that we should strengthen them, so that if we can make the entire investment more effective, then it will also be beneficial to the vitality of the entire economy.
Question 4: The United States is no longer China's largest importing economy, how do you view such changes?
Qiu Xiaohua: I think the overall external environment has really changed over the years, and China has gone from being the largest importer to the U.S. at 214%, then it is only about 14% now, almost 7 percentage points down, and there are objective reasons for this, on the one hand, the United States itself is tightening.
The second is the adjustment of some of the so-called "de-risking" and so-called "eggs are not in one basket" that he has adopted for China, which has caused some of China's orders to be diverted, such as to Southeast Asia, to Mexico, and so on.
Third, I do think it is also because the environment of the whole market has changed, our product structure is also undergoing new adjustments, with traditional products may be our share is declining, but the share of some new products is rising, such as new energy vehicles, such as lithium batteries, such as solar cells, etc., this is our "new three pieces", last year a year exports of more than 1 trillion yuan, it should be said that this is also a big bright spot, then these may be for the United States, Now it's not his main target of demand, but in other countries like Russia, which became the fastest growing country in our exports last year, and last year, our exports to Russia increased by 50%, which is a big difference.
Therefore, his share is relatively stable on a certain basis, and it is normal for his growth rate to be adjusted to a certain extent in some aspects. The key is that we should further enhance our competitiveness and further optimize our export structure, so that we can maintain relative stability in exports. In the same way, we want to buy more products from the world, and we want to show that China not only wants to export, but also imports, and I think as long as the import and export are balanced, it should be said that it is also good for the rest of the world to reduce friction.
Question 5: What is the recommendation for crossing the cycle?
Qiu Xiaohua: In a world that is indeed not very peaceful, and in a critical period of great transformation in China, we really need to have a so-called ideological preparation called being prepared for danger in times of peace.
Second, it is true that in such a critical stage of transformation and upgrading of the new economic tide wave after wave, then we should also embrace the new economy with the attitude of bravery, because this is the so-called hope for our future.
Thirdly, I think that while we are guarding against risks and daring to challenge, we really need to do our own things well in a down-to-earth manner, and if we do a good job, we will be able to take more initiative. So it's about dealing with the uncertainty of changing the situation with the certainty of your own work, and that's what I want to share with you.
Question 6: Spring Festival greetings.
Qiu Xiaohua: Winter is coming, spring will not be far away, we are now entering the 39th, will be 49 soon, I think the pace of spring is getting closer and closer, let us open our arms to welcome the spring of 2024.