Bounce or reversal?!

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-07

Today, finally.

There is a lot of news, and the so-called "thirteen gold medals" have been summed up, with a total of 13 policies in three days.

There are actually two main triggers:

One is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission restricts short-selling: the scale of refinancing securities of new ** companies is suspended, and the stock is gradually closed.

At the same time, it is strictly forbidden to provide securities lending to investors who use securities lending to implement intraday rotation trading (disguised T+0 trading).

The other was broken by Bloomberg, saying that it would report on the state of the capital market as soon as Tuesday.

Both of these have weight.

The market has been sharply ** today, led by mainly mid-cap stocks.

The reason is that the national team is in the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext related ETFs, which are dominated by mid-cap stocks.

The weights (SSE 50 and CSI 300) stabilized in advance some time ago** and are relatively stagflation today;

In terms of small tickets, the pressure on liquidity has eased, but some tickets are still in the first place, and the problem has not been completely solved.

Foreign capital has a large net of 12.6 billion yuan today, a net ** for 6 consecutive days, and there are also factors in which the national team borrows the road.

At the same time, today's trading volume exceeded 930 billion, a new high in nearly 2 months, and it is said that over-the-counter wait-and-see funds are also entering the market.

After today's market, the question that everyone is most concerned about is:Is this ** or a reversal?

First of all, let's clarify the nature of today's **.

Today's ** belongs more to the repair of the market's recent excessive pessimistic sentiment, which belongs to the over-falling**.

Last weekend, after the policy of restricting refinancing came out, investors thought that they lacked sincerity and did not complete the stop, so they voted with their feet and smashed it for a week.

Now, the refinancing has been completely stopped, and the sincerity is finally felt, coupled with the fact that the market has been seriously over-fallen and overly pessimistic, so there has been a repair.

In the next step, we need to continue to plug the loopholes.

The loopholes of refinancing, short-selling, and quantitative intraday T+0 have been plugged for the time being.

ButIn the final analysis, it is still a question of IPO.

A large number of garbage companies are listed, and at the same time, the issue price is seriously overvalued, a large amount of money, and then after listing, through refinancing, to complete the disguise.

The root cause of these problems of refinancing and shorting can be traced back to IPOs: because the overpricing of new shares has given enough space for refinancing and shorting.

So,If the market wants to really get out of the reversal, or even go bullish, it must solve the fundamental problem of IPO.

Second, the market differentiation will continue.

Today, 671 shares rose more than 9%, while 206 shares fell more than 9%.

Although the liquidity crisis in the market has been temporarily alleviated due to the injection of funds into the national team, the problems caused by the IPO have not really been solved.

Especially in the past few years, the new shares listed in the past few years have been overpriced, and the quality of a large number of companies is worrying.

Although, the stock price has fallen a lot, but for some companies, it may not have fallen in place ......

At present, let's just take a step by step and look at the over-falling **; Whether the follow-up can move from the first to the reverse depends on the strength of the follow-up policy, especially how to solve the problem of IPO!

Related Pages