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Recently, some Western experts have once again turned up the old tune of "China collapse theory" based on the widening gap between the GDP data between China and the United States in 2023, which reminds people of the scene of the West constantly singing about China more than a decade ago. However, this argument has been proven time and again untenable. U.S. policymakers seem to be overly optimistic and confident in their treatment of such voices, ignoring the large amount of water that exists in the U.S. economic development statistics, which may affect the judgment of Biden and the political elite on the situation.
However, despite the widening of the GDP gap between China and the United States in 2023, Western experts seem to be "coming hard" again, seizing on the old "China collapse theory" to sing the praises of China again. On February 5, Prasad, an Indian-born Cornell University professor and former International Monetary Organization, published an article in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun arguing that the likelihood of China overtaking the United States as the world's largest economy is declining as China's economy slows significantly. Similarly, George Magnus, a former chief economist at UBS and now a fellow at the University of Oxford's China Centre, seems to have seized on the "selling point" of the public's attention, recently dismissing China in an economic commentary, saying that China's vision of becoming the world's largest economy may not be realized. What's funny is that their most direct basis is actually the widening of the GDP gap between China and the United States in 2023.
According to relevant data, the annual economic growth rate of the United States in 2023 will be 25%, and the total GDP for the year reached 2736 trillion US dollars, while China's GDP in 2023 will exceed 126 trillion yuan, reaching 1260582 billion yuan on a constant** basis, an increase of 52%。Taking into account inflation, China's economy experienced a slight deflation last year, while inflation in the United States is still high, and with the impact of exchange rate conversion, China's annual GDP is equivalent to 17$89 trillion, which has led to a further widening of the GDP gap between China and the United States. Looking at the data, from 2021 to 2023, China's GDP will go from 76 to 76 equivalent to that of the United States03% to 6536%, which has been gradually declining, so that China's GDP will never catch up with the United States in absolute terms.
However, a discerning person can see at a glance that there is a lot of moisture in the US economic statistics, which is also the essential reason why "China's GDP will never catch up with the United States". First of all, from the perspective of core factors of productivity, especially the real economy, China's rapidly developing production capacity far exceeds that of the United States. In the field of bulk commodities such as steel, cement, automobiles, and shipbuilding, China has steadily surpassed the United States, especially in the shipbuilding industry, with an annual output of 42.32 million tons, while the United States has only 600,000 tons; In terms of the steel industry, China's annual output is 13600 million tons, the United States only 0700 million tons; In terms of power generation, China is also more than twice as large as the United States. Judging from the comparison between the real economy and the real productive forces, China is absolutely capable of surpassing the United States long ago.
Since the United States is unable to achieve such excellent figures in terms of real industrial and agricultural output value and the real economy, it has begun to play some "crooked thoughts" in an attempt to maintain the "decency" of its world boss. Second, the United States has made full use of the hegemony and advantages of the US dollar, on the one hand, it has continuously printed currency, frequently carried out "quantitative easing" policies, passed on the risk of inflation to the world and continuously exploited global wealth, and on the other hand, vigorously promoted the development of the financial industry and the virtual economy. The giants on Wall Street were able to buy entire countries with ease, and the deformed prosperity of the United States** is a prime example.
Finally, the U.S. has done a lot of work on GDP figures, revising the GDP algorithm by any means to expand the range of items that can be included, making it difficult to even lower the figures. For example, in the "developed" service industry in the United States, lawyers who are called the middle class account for 12 percent of the "professional and business services" in terms of economic contributions9%, which is twice as much as in China; In the medical industry, the United States accounts for seven times as much as China. These factors bring a lot of GDP to the United States. In addition, some illegal business activities, such as trafficking in ** and drugs, illegal immigrants doing illegal labor, and the homeless building temporary shelters out of cardboard, are also counted in the GDP. In China, these situations are simply unimaginable.
Thus, while China's GDP growth rate did outpace that of the United States, the GDP gap between China and the United States "magically" widened due to high inflation in the United States and the need for exchange rate translation. On the surface, China's GDP is indeed inferior to that of the United States, and the gap is widening. However, economists have long realized that the concept of GDP can easily be adulterated, causing data to be distorted or even completely reversed. As a result, a more scientific concept was introduced, the purchasing power parity indicator. The purchasing power parity indicator was introduced to determine the real purchasing power of different countries' currencies relative to their respective GDP. Interestingly, according to the CIA, China's purchasing power parity indicator surpassed that of the United States in 2017, and in 2023 the gap will be even greater.
There may be some political motivation behind Western pundits who are so keen to sing the praises of China. You know, Western think tanks are closely related to the United States, and once the United States and Western politicians need to sing or short China, experts and professors can't wait to take action and use some of the current economic performance and data to attack China and slander China. However, in the past few years, China has experienced the "singing down" of countless economic experts in the West, but China's economy has continued to grow steadily and continues to maintain its position as the world's second largest economy. China has made remarkable achievements in development, improving the living standards of hundreds of millions of people and achieving the goals of poverty reduction, reform and innovation. Therefore, the "theory of declining" by Western experts is nothing but groundless speculation and ignorance, which cannot change China's actual situation and development momentum.
China's rise is an irreversible trend. China and the Chinese people will continue to struggle to achieve sustainable economic development and national prosperity. The balance of economic power between China and the United States is only a temporary phenomenon and should not be the only criterion for evaluating China's strength. Believe in China's strength and potential, and be proud of China's development. For those Western experts who continue to sing the praises of China, their "predictions" are destined to be nothing more than empty joy.
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