The retreat of the Ukrainians in Avdeyevka became a decisive factor!
Russian units captured Avdeyevka and launched a fierce offensive near Lastochkino and constantly advanced to the west!
Currently, on the Rastochno-Severnoye line, where Russia is attacking the village of Lastochkino, the front is moving forward. The Ukrainian army has lost its fighting spirit and will not support it for a long time, and this settlement is within the range of the Russian army, including the Avdeyevsky coking plant and a number of places nearby.
Expose defects. The pace of the collapse of the Avdeyevka front exceeded the expectations of many, and of myself. In particular, the escape of the 9th sector and the coking plant. I think that the Ukrainian army will place a fortification in Shimik (9th district) and hold out there for a week, between Rastoch Kann and Severna, as long as possible to the evacuation route.
The reason for this is actually not difficult to understand.
The Ukrainian army gave the order to evacuate the city so quickly that many Ukrainian servicemen were abandoned, and they could only hold each other back and were forced to surrender. Although there is no specific number, according to reports from the major Ukrainian commands, nearly 2,000 Ukrainian servicemen are still missing.
In other words, the defense line of the Ukrainian army has been broken up, and everyone lost their fighting spirit after hearing the news of the retreat, and ran back desperately, and no one gave them a back at all.
In particular, it is important to abandon the coke plants that are critical to the defense. Without this plant, a huge gap would have been made in the defense of the Ukrainian army, and Lastochkino would have been exposed to the artillery fire of the ** people, and this place is not a long-term military fortress, but a temporary fortress.
After the abandonment of Area Nine, the town became the last checkpoint for the Russian army to attack the next front.
If you want to retreat, you must rely on the geographical advantage and counterattack step by step, without the coking plant and the No. 9 area, the elite units of the Ukrainian army must arrange fortifications on the road, the third brigade of Uzov and the 47th brigade of Ukraine have just withdrawn, how to arrange fortifications?
The retreat of the coking plant has created a huge hole in the Ukrainian defense, giving the Russians an opportunity to attack from the rear or encircle Ukraine from the north.
It is not clear when the Ukrainian military will be able to stabilize the front, even if only for a short time, the Russians will be able to create a buffer zone in 1 to 2 weeks, completely wipe out the remnants of the Ukrainian salient forces and occupy a strip 15 to 20 km wide and 10 km deep.
Deficiencies in the troops.
Why did the Ukrainian army abandon the coking plant?
Commander Ukraine, as a professional soldier, must understand this.
Perhaps due to the low morale of the troops on the ground, they feared that the remaining 4,000 men would be besieged and eventually wiped out.
Let's take a look at the entire battlefield, why did the Ukrainian commander abandon Avdeyevka, where the Ukrainians have fought for ten years and is known as the strongest place in the world.
Lack of manpower is the most important factor, and the lack of manpower and insufficient reinforcements to support this salient is the most critical.
Therefore, the Ukrainian command is trying to preserve the forces of its most elite and transfer them to Donetsk and defend the remaining areas of Donetsk, among which is the Kramators region.
Judging from the current situation, the forces of the Ukrainian army on other fronts have been reduced to a very serious extent, and it is no longer possible to send more troops to Avdeyevka.
The Ukrainian army has very few strategic materials, and the 3rd Ukrainian Assault Brigade (Azov) is likely to be one of them.
Due to the lack of reserves, the ** people have more time to carry out repeated tentative attacks in all directions, until a larger opening is opened.
At the moment, the Russian army is conducting a fierce offensive on the fronts of Kreminna, **Mutter, as well as Yuzhnodonetsk, and at the same time, a larger offensive is also unfolding on the Zaporozhye front.
* The total number of troops gathered by the army on the Belgorod, Kupyansk, and Zaporozhye fronts is not less than 150,000, if not 200,000, then 200,000.
Once activated, it poses a great threat to the Ukrainian army, who will have to make some sacrifices on their homeland to ensure that there are enough troops to cope with the Russian spring offensive.
Ethical issues. Fighting is not a 100-meter race, but a long-distance race.
From Mutter to Avdeyevka, the actions of the Russians have been confirmed: they can be dragged down, but they will not stop.
The number of castles like this, which has been built by the Ukrainian army for many years, is now decreasing, and there may be four or five more that are blocking the footsteps of the ** people.
But since Avdeyevka was the most valuable place, the defenders of Chasov Yar thought, why could such a small fortress not retreat?
Will Konstantinovka have any effect?
When they become a habit, everywhere!
Moreover, the battle in Avdeyevka has fallen into chaos, there is no army at all to break off, and the remaining soldiers have become prisoners of the ** people, so how can they continue to defend the fortress?
It is better for the Ukrainian army to give up resistance early, at least they can survive, after all, they will also be abandoned.
As long as the ** people break through their defenses, then they will enter the ** and the northern arteries, and then they will no longer be able to resist those big cities.
Ukraine's new commander, Zelensky, or anyone else, does not have the guts to call for the 10th transfer. No one wants to fight, especially from the news from their comrades on the front, and no one wants to be a victim on the battlefield.
Logistical weaknesses.
In addition to the reduction in the number of fortresses, the Russian army also lacks all kinds of supplies, from individual equipment to ammunition, vehicles and anti-aircraft missiles.
The few remaining fortresses may delay the offensive of the **people, but the problem of delivering ** to the allies is a dead end for the Ukrainians.
Although in the news reports now, **people have suffered severely**, and **people have also lost a lot of tanks in Ukraine, but now, in addition to the Russian reserves, their troops on the front line have exceeded the military forces of the entire European countries.
And the future is even bleaker.
After overcoming electrical bottlenecks, a new engine plant has been opened, the barrel plant has been expanded, and a new gearbox plant in Russia has been put into production.
They are carried out for long-term operations, and the output is completely different from that of the Ukrainian army, and this does not include assistance from the North Korean side.
The most vulnerable link in this war is the logistics of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
About 70% of military equipment from the United States and Sweden is spare parts, compared with only 40% in the United Kingdom; Other countries have only a 10% share, while equipment financed by countries such as Poland and Slovenia is completely free of parts**.
Leopard 2A6 needs to be repaired in Lithuania, and 2A4 is currently undergoing repair in Poland.
In principle, the Ukrainian T-64 was able to be repaired at the air base in the Czech Republic, but none of these tanks could get into their repair workshops.
A battle is not solved by destroying a residential area with a "storm shadow", nor by firing a missile from behind with a bunch of F16s.
In fact, the rout of the Ukrainian forces is not just the personal actions of some officers and their soldiers, the average age of Ukrainian soldiers is only 45 years old, and now they are caught in a losing battle.
There are no soldiers, no **, no morale, Avdeyevka is the key to the Russian-Ukrainian war!