This is a unique mirror image of China's reflection of the world situation and potential dangers against the backdrop of a full-scale outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis. Of course, China cannot fully replicate its successful experience in dealing with the Ukraine crisis, but we cannot ignore its important strategic significance.
Western observers often warn that Russia's victory in the war in Ukraine will have a certain "demonstration effect" on China's handling of the Taiwan issue, prompting it to use force. However, this contrast ignores important geopolitical distinctions. Ukraine and Taiwan are very different geographically, in terms of foreign aid and internal environment. Therefore, China's difficulties with Russia in Ukraine are not so much a containment of itself, but a constraint on the United States and NATO.
Interestingly, U.S. Pacific Navy Commander Paparo recently analyzed the Ukraine crisis in depth, especially mentioning that China is likely to adopt a "quick fix" strategy. This means that China can learn from Russia's experience and conduct a short-term but intense military operation to achieve its goals quickly. Paparo believes that China does not believe that Taiwan will do the same, but believes in quickly ousting Taipei's leaders so that it can better demonstrate its strength.
While Mr. Paparo stressed that the U.S. Navy has not yet "declined," he also candidly mentioned some of the problems that the U.S. fleet is currently facing, such as the "vulnerability" that may arise from the size of the commercial fleet. This highlights that the Ukraine crisis is not only a geographical competition for world powers, but also a test of their strategic intelligence.
In this sense, the Ukraine crisis is both a living teaching material and an intricate chess game whose every move will have far-reaching consequences. Therefore, China must learn from its lessons and develop a strategy that benefits itself while also being able to cope with external challenges.
The U.S. senior recently stressed that in order to counter China's growing space reconnaissance capabilities, attention should now be focused on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, which is what they are most concerned about. They also believe that continued U.S. assistance to Ukraine will help curb China's military activities in the Taiwan Strait. From this, we can speculate that the US senior believes that Russia's situation in Ukraine has had a deterrent effect on China, and at the same time will warn China that the only way to make a decision on the situation in the Taiwan Strait is to make a decision as soon as possible.
However, there is a misunderstanding of this view: if China is forced to use force against Taiwan, then it must make a quick decision and start a big war? In fact, there is no way to do it.
When we think about China's military reunification, we need to carefully consider and accurately weigh all the costs and dangers that may occur. The danger of this war is twofold: First, the military danger faced by the amphibious landing on the island of Taiwan, and second, the profound impact of the economic and technological sanctions imposed by the United States on China on its development.
At the best point, we must avoid "bipedals" and take a safer approach to "unification". However, if it is found that the US forces are incapable of effective intervention and that the movement and defense systems of the Taiwanese military are not capable of posing a significant danger to the ground forces, a ground attack may be a possible approach. However, this decision will have to be appropriately adjusted in the light of the development of the war.
It is worth mentioning that the danger of our reaching a military union will be minimized until there is a landing war. This view is critical in order for us to find a more reliable and reliable path.
The special natural topography of the island of Taiwan determines that the operation around the island is a strategy of great strategic value. Because Taiwan is surrounded by water, it will be easier to implement a longer and more thorough closure. After more than two months of military operations, it is possible to gradually destroy the military installations and combat materials of the Taiwan armed forces on the island and achieve their political goals. Such a strategy is very different from the situation in Ukraine, which is in the heart of Europe and can constantly draw help from the West, making the situation in the country more complex and volatile.
In short, when carrying out military integration, we should fully consider the various dangers and costs that may arise, and make appropriate adjustments according to the actual situation. On the other hand, it is necessary to give full play to the unique geographical advantages of the island of Taiwan and adopt the strategy of encircling the island and fighting to reduce conflicts and provide more possibilities for the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the strait.
The Taiwan issue is China's internal affair and has always been the focus of the Chinese people's attention and attention. We have many different options on how to deal with the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Compared with the war between Russia and Ukraine, the two independent countries, cross-strait relations are still in a temporary war in a certain sense. This gives China more legal control and strategic flexibility, including limited force attacks.
"Coercing reunification by force" is a strategic decision, the purpose of which is to show force and force Taiwan to reflect on the Taiwan Strait, so as to achieve the goal of peaceful reunification. Doing so is less costly and more strategic than a complete unification of force. However, we must not rely excessively on the road of "peaceful reunification," but should flexibly make a decision on a rapid victory or an extension of the front in light of specific conditions and conditions.
In the process of promoting national reunification, China has a strong legal basis, a strong military force, a superior geographical location, and very superior external conditions. All the elements are our unique superiority in the reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, we should not excessively demand that the war end the war as soon as possible, but should conduct a comprehensive evaluation of different methods of war and find the best way to deal with it.
Looking to the future, we hope that through the combination of various strategies, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will move toward reunification in a more rational and effective manner. However, as long as we strengthen our confidence and build consensus, the peaceful development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will be brighter.