As the saying goes, thirty years in Hedong, thirty years in Hexi.
In the past, renting a house in first-tier cities was a very hot business, and landlords and even second-hand landlords were very popular, but with the passage of time, many first-tier cities have seen rents plummet, and there are more and more houses vacant, and the vacancy period is getting longer and longer.
What is the real rent market like in big cities? Why is this anomaly of the general fall?
Let's take a look at it today.
A What is the current situation of rent in first-tier cities?
According to the latest news on the Internet, in recent years, rents in first-tier cities have gradually lost their previous momentum and have turned to a downward trend. This change is manifested in various ways.
First: The cooling of the rental market is directly reflected in the landlord side
There are many landlords who are pouring bitter water, and the house has been on the market for longer and longer, and some people have come to ask, but no one has come to rent.
Landlords in first-tier cities are having a hard time, and many are finding it increasingly difficult to rent out their homes, and even if they do, rents are often lower than expected.
For example, the area around Zhoupu Kangqiao in Shanghai is within the overall plan of Zhangjiang Science City, and it was easy to rent a house in previous years, but I didn't expect it to be cold this year.
Zhoupu Kangqiao had a single room with a monthly rent of 8,500 yuan in hand before, the location of the community is very good, seven or eight hundred meters away from the subway, the surrounding facilities are very mature, the house was hung for 3 months, and the price was reduced to 7,000 yuan before renting out.
The landlord has an understanding of the market this year, and in order to retain the tenants who are about to expire, they are worried about the prolongation of the house vacancy time, and they do not hesitate to take the initiative to reduce the price in order to obtain stable rental.
Second, the rental market is getting colder, and the agents who deal with houses on a daily basis are the most sensitive
A person who works as a real estate agent in Shanghai said that the average transaction in the store has been 5%-10% lower than before in the past few months;
Due to the bad market this year, the real estate agency staff have advised some landlords to redecorate their houses, so that it is relatively easy to close. Because it is difficult to rent out a house that has not been renovated for several years, even if the rent is 10% lower.
Third: The rental market is cooling, which is reflected in big data
According to big data, at the end of the third quarter of 2023, the rent index in 40 key cities across the country decreased by 099%, down 066%。
Rents are falling in 30 of the country's 40 large and medium-sized cities.
In the three major cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the rents in Guangzhou and Beijing will be lower in the third quarter of 2023 than in the second quarter. 28%, of which Shanghai dropped the most, reaching 212%。
b What are the reasons for the decline in rents due to the impact on the rental market?
What exactly causes itThe rental market has hit,What about the downward trend of rents in first-tier cities? Is it because there are fewer people renting or not?
The following three factors are the main reasons:
First: the unemployment rate is increasing, the population is moving, and the demand for rental housing is insufficient
With the rising cost of living in first-tier cities and the increasing pressure of competition, more and more people choose to leave first-tier cities to return to their hometowns or go to second- and third-tier cities.
Population big data shows that at the end of 2022, the permanent resident population of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will decline at the same time, with the permanent population of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou being 2,184 respectively30,000 people, 2475890,000, 1873410,000, a decrease of 430,000 people, 13540,000 people, 7650,000 people.
Shenzhen has a permanent population of 1766180,000, a decrease of 1980,000 people. This is also the first time that Shenzhen has experienced negative growth in permanent population since its establishment.
With the news of layoffs in many companies and the deterioration of the employment environment, people will naturally leave the city where they used to work and live.
This outflow has led to a decrease in rental demand in first-tier cities, which in turn has pushed rents down.
Second: Housing prices** affect rents
There must be a correlation between house prices and rents.
When the price of the house is **, the rent of the house is often followed**; Conversely, when the house price is **, the rent will also be affected to varying degrees. This is often an objective law that does not depend on human will.
In recent years, housing prices in first-tier cities have begun to show a trend after a period of rapid development. This phenomenon of house prices** has a direct impact on the rent of the house, which in turn triggers a downward trend in the rent of the house.
Thirdly: the increase in the sale and sublease
The price of houses in first-tier cities is **, but part of the landlord has a fluke mentality, and the other part is used to the high housing prices in the past, and is reluctant to sell, and then turns to leasing, resulting in an increase in rentals.
According to Internet data, in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Central China, Shanghai has the largest increase in leasing.
Fourth, the large-scale entry of national affordable rental housing into the market
In order to alleviate the housing pressure in first-tier cities, ** has vigorously promoted the construction and entry of affordable rental housing into the market in recent years.
According to the Shanghai Municipal Housing Authority, 222 pieces of land for affordable rental housing have been launched in the city, with a planned amount of 2540,000 sets**, with a total investment of 283.4 billion yuan. At present, the number of projects under construction has reached 188, involving 2130,000 sets**.
These affordable rental housing is rented out to eligible people at a price lower than the market price, effectively increasing the volume of the rental market.
For individual landlords and second-hand landlords, the entry of affordable rental housing into the market has undoubtedly brought a huge impact to their rental business.
Many tenants who originally intended to rent a house with a single landlord have switched to affordable rental housing, making it difficult for both individual and secondary landlords to rent out their homes, and rents have dropped.
Conclusion
The impact of the rental market in first-tier cities and the decline in rents are the result of a combination of factors.
Jobs are hard to find in big cities, population movements, housing prices**,Under the influence of comprehensive factors such as the increase in sales and subleases** and the entry of national affordable rental housing into the market, the rental market in first-tier cities is undergoing profound changes.