Text: Liu Tao
2024 can be said to be the world's election year, according to the statistics of Time magazine in the United States, in 2024, at least 65 countries (regions) around the world will hold elections successively, which is expected to affect more than 4 billion people around the world (about 49 of the world), of which about 2 billion people can vote, setting a global election peak in nearly 30 years.
Bloomberg estimates from an economic perspective, pointing out that countries (regions) accounting for 42% of global GDP output will elect new leaders; Among them, there are many countries (regions) that have a great impact on geopolitics, such as the United States, India, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Russia.
The prelude to a super-election year was kicked off by Bangladesh on January 7, with Prime Minister Hasinah winning a fifth term. Taiwan's just-completed "** has also attracted global attention, because the election results affect the geopolitical situation and have a huge impact.
There are also elections that look "decided to be won", such as the Russian elections in March, where Putin is expected to remain in power until 2030, but the outcome of elections in most countries still appears to be pending. What is certain, however, is that the simultaneous eventualization of the event in many countries** will have a much greater knock-on effect on the course of global politics in the coming years.
Candidates and voters around the world are concerned about a wide range of issues, from serious power rivalries between China and the United States to economic issues that matter to the people, such as inflation.
01.The United States *** Chuan Bai fights again!
The most high-profile event this year is the United States*** held on November 5, which is also the finale of the 2024 super election year. Judging from the current approval rating, this time the United States may again have a "showdown between the two elders" between the former Trump and the current Biden.
Trump won a landslide victory in the Republican Party's first primary.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said: "I think this is probably the most important since World War II."
Trump, who has returned strongly, won a landslide victory in the first primary election of the Republican Party, and no one in the party can match him, and the future is promising, unless multiple lawsuits build a high wall to block it, his path to nomination and even the road to election will be unimpeded. The declining popularity of the aging Biden and the fact that he is also significantly behind Trump in the polls in six key swing states mainly reflect the dissatisfaction of the American people with the high cost of living brought about by post-epidemic price inflation, and the road to re-election is full of shadows.
If Trump succeeds in "returning to North Korea", the world situation will certainly change dramatically. First of all, US military assistance to Ukraine will definitely be reduced, and it is even possible that it will be stopped altogether, and without US support, Ukraine will not be able to continue to fight Russia; Second, under Trump, relations between the United States and allies such as Europe and Japan may deteriorate again, returning to the isolationism of four years ago. In domestic politics, Trump has repeatedly threatened to carry out a purge of some departments, prosecutors or prosecutors who have "opposed him" after "returning to North Korea", which is bound to have a catastrophic blow to the US structure and system.
For China, Trump's policy will lose the predictability of the Biden administration's "competition and cooperation". Trump's political energy is mainly derived from an anti-elite sentiment, so his China policy will change at any time according to the needs of his populist politics, and it is likely to "externalize" domestic economic and social problems (such as worker unemployment, ** deficit, drug problem, etc.) to China, and encourage xenophobia. And because Trump doesn't agree with climate change, there is less room for cooperation between China and the United States. At the same time, Trump may also raise tariffs and start a war with the world. The only thing that is good for China is probably that Trump is clearly not going to pay much for Taiwan.
However, any excesses by Trump could be hindered by both parties in Congress, but the executive power is enough for Trump to bring about a seismic shift in the American system.
02.European Parliament elections: The rise of the far right?
The five-year European Parliament elections will be held from June 6 to 9, 2024, which will be the first European Parliament elections after Brexit, and are regarded as the "weather vane" of European politics. More than 400 million voters in the EU's 27 member states will vote for around 700 MPs.
The European Parliament elections are seen as a bellwether for European politics.
The European Parliament is the legislative, oversight, budgetary and advisory body of the European Union. The nomination of the new president of the European Commission must be voted on by the European Parliament, and the president of the European Commission is equivalent to the "head of the EU" and has an important influence on the EU's internal and external decision-making.
Although the current European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has not announced whether to seek re-election, all factions in the EU are sharpening their knives for power in the commission. It is seen as a testing moment for EU populists.
In the past two years, the far-right forces in Europe have grown rapidly, and the Netherlands** has made the anti-Islamic, anti-EU far-right Freedom Party led by Wilders a winner; In Italy in 2022**, Meloni's far-right Brothers party also won the election; In 2023, Finland's left-leaning five-party coalition was abandoned by voters after 4 years in power, and the most right-wing ** in Finland's history was formed; Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis also won a resounding victory, with the 55-year-old center-right leader having a far greater advantage in the parliamentary elections than he did for the first time. Far-right parties in Germany and France are also gradually breaking into the mainstream, posing a major threat to traditional political forces ......
According to data from European polling agencies, the political support of far-right parties in Europe has reached an all-time high. At the beginning of December 2023, far-right parties in 12 European countries gathered in Italy to mobilize for the European Parliament elections. The Identity and Democracy group, which brings together the main far-right parties, is gearing up to become one of the top three parties in the European Parliament.
In the 2024 European Parliament elections, it remains to be seen whether right-wing populist parliamentarians will have a greater say in the EU. If Europe's overall policy is further "turned to the right" in the future, this will put pressure on China-EU relations in the fields of economy, trade, investment, science and technology.
03.No one in Russia dares to challenge Putin
Russia** elections will be held on March 15-17. On December 18, 2023, the incumbent Putin officially registered as a candidate with the Russian Election Commission. On March 26, 2000, Putin was officially elected**, and after the end of his first term, Putin served as Russia** three times in 2004, 2012, and 2018, at the helm of this northern power across Europe and Asia.
Many parties expect Putin to win the election with a high percentage of votes.
The outside world believes that as long as Putin runs for re-election in March, Russia is expected to have no one to challenge him. At that time, more than two years have passed since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and it will be a long time since Russia entered the "new normal" of wartime society. **The election is largely seen as a vote by the Russian population on the Kremlin-led "special military operation."
In the West, many observers had predicted that with the deepening of economic sanctions and the prolongation of military conflicts, the daily life of the Russian people would be increasingly restricted, and finally lead to widespread dissatisfaction with the Kremlin, and Russia could "disintegrate" from within. But reality has proven that all of these predictions have come true.
According to current predictions, Putin is expected to win the election with a high percentage of votes and continue to lead Russia until 2030.
Even the Russian people, who oppose the war against Ukraine, do not want to see the national team lose on the battlefield. These factors all determine the inevitability of Putin's re-election and the continuity of Putin's line towards Ukraine.
Ukraine was also scheduled to hold ** elections in March, but the Ukrainian constitution stipulates that no elections or ** elections can be held in wartime. The Ukrainian parliament has extended the state of war until February 14 and may continue to do so in the future, leading to a ** extension.
04.Indian Prime Minister**: Modi is expected to be re-elected
In April-May 2024, India will hold a meeting to elect the world's most populous country to lead by 2029. India's current Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third term.
Modi's re-election is expected to continue his previous policy of India-made, open-door diplomacy.
India's economic growth rate in recent years has been impressive, and its self-proclaimed representative of the "Global South" is promising, and the dividends from Sino-US tensions are promising. On December 4, 2023, the BJP won the local elections for the parliaments of three key states of India, Wrestedrajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which are located in the populous and politically influential northern Hindi-speaking region and are also considered the core states of the target on the eve of each round of prime ministers**, a result that reflects the popularity of Modi after 10 years in power. After the results of the local elections were announced, the Indian stock market hit a record high the next day, indicating that the market is generally happy to see Modi as the third prime minister. According to the latest survey by Morning Consult, a US think tank, Modi's domestic approval rating is as high as 77%, making him the most popular among the 22 major leaders in the world.
Modi said in July 2023: "Based on past records, India will be the third largest economy in the world during our third term." Citing data reported by the National Development Council, Modi said that in the past five years, there have been 13.5 billion people have been lifted out of poverty.
However, India's economic rise has continued unabated, but internal discord has intensified, and Modi's image on the international stage has been tarnished by the BJP's Hindu nationalism. Critics say Mr. Modi's political career and success have been based on the support of India's more than 1 billion Hindus and fomenting hostility towards the country's Muslim minority. Recently, 141 opposition lawmakers were suspended, which the opposition party dubbed a "mockery of democracy" by Modi.
Modi's re-election is expected to continue his previous policy of India-made, open-door diplomacy. Since 2014, India has carefully maintained its traditional cooperative partnership with Russia, and on the other hand, it has continued to deepen its strategic cooperation with the United States, Japan, Australia and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region, establishing an image close to the Western democratic camp to attract transnational capital inflows, but its political and economic relations with Pakistan and China have become increasingly tense.
UK Parliamentary Elections:First regime change in 14 years?
The UK is expected to take place between the end of 2024 and January 2025**, with the exact date yet to be confirmed. The Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2010, has taken Britain out of the European Union, has experienced the coronavirus pandemic, changed prime ministers four times, and is now at the end of its rope, steadily trailing the Labour Party by more than 10 to 20 percentage points in the polls, almost just waiting to hand over power.
The main reason for the loss of popular support for the Conservative Party is that more and more people believe that Brexit is a wrong decision, and in addition, the stagnation of economic growth since the epidemic is also a major problem in the United Kingdom, with almost zero GDP growth in the past two years, especially after the financial crisis caused by the mini-budget implemented by Truss last year, the support of the Conservative Party has been declining.
Since the Conservative Party and the Labour Party have the same position on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war, even if the Labour Party really wins this time, there will be no changes to the relevant policies of the UK in the future, only at the domestic level such as immigration policy and climate policy. However, at a time when net inflows are at an all-time high, Labour will also support policies that limit the number of immigrants to some extent.
Other noteworthy elections include Indonesia, Austria, Lithuania, South Africa, Ghana, Senegal, Mexico, Venezuela, Belgium, etc., which can be the world's largest event in 2024, which will last for nearly a year, and will surely bring a high-level shock to the direction of human civilization. In recent years, the turmoil in the world has intensified, and the successive elections in various countries and the rise of strongman politics mean that more friction and conflict factors will be injected into the world, making the world situation even more turbulent. As we stay on the sidelines, we have to be mindful of how their political choices will affect the international community.