Witness a day in history!
February 13, the fourth day of the first lunar month. Although the A-share market has not yet opened, the global capital market has ushered in great changes.
In the early morning of Tuesday, Beijing time, Nvidia's stock price once exceeded 3%, and its total market value surpassed Amazon for the first time in 20 years. This may mean that the mobile Internet era has officially begun the transition to the AI era.
On Monday (12th), after briefly exceeding $50,000 for the first time since December 2021, Bitcoin trading** officially stood at a high of $50,000 on the 13th, and virtual currencies rose sharply across the board. This could mean that a new round of the dollar cycle is beginning.
Against the backdrop of divergent U.S. stock market trends, the Nikkei 225 index rose more than 2%, continuing to hit a new high since 1990. Tokyo Electron rose more than 10%, SoftBank Group rose nearly 8%, and Sony rose nearly 3%. Japan's economy appears to be coming out of a decades-long downturn.
In particular, it is worth mentioning that the FTSE China A50 Index once exceeded 15%。So, is the opening of A-shares also worth looking forward to?
The signal released by Nvidia
At the end of last week, the market once again reported a new move by Nvidia: it intends to seek $30 billion worth of custom chip opportunities through a new division. At the opening of the U.S. stock market last night, Nvidia rose sharply; In the early hours of this morning, Beijing time, the increase expanded to more than 3%, and its market value surpassed Amazon for the first time in 20 years. The last time Nvidia surpassed Amazon in market capitalization was in 2002, when both companies were worth less than $6 billion.
After Amazon's higher-than-expected holiday sales last month, investors are eyeing Nvidia's Feb. 21 quarterly results, with high expectations for the company, which has accumulated 47% so far this year, making it the biggest gainer among S&P 500 constituents.
Analysts believe that the signal significance of Nvidia's market capitalization surpassing Amazon's may be the transcendence of the era of artificial intelligence to the era of mobile Internet. Ten years ago, the mobile Internet was in the ascendant, and the entire industry was booming, and the global economy was driving into a new era. Nowadays, the mobile Internet seems to have come to an end, and the era of artificial intelligence is coming. This era not only surpasses the mobile Internet, but also has the possibility of integrating and transforming the previous era.
Earlier this month, Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Investment Management, known as the "female version of Warren Buffett" and "the female stock god of Wall Street", led her ARK research team to release a 163-page "Big Ideas 2024"** report. According to the report, artificial intelligence (AI) technology is developing faster than the market expects, and AGI (artificial general intelligence) will appear as early as 2026 and as late as 2030, shortening the time from 80 years in 2019 to less than 7 years.
Bitcoin topped $50,000
Due to the strong demand for virtual currencies in the market, in the early morning, the market collectively soared. Among them, Bitcoin** broke through the $50,000 mark.
After rising more than 150% in 2023, Bitcoin has risen 13% in the past seven days and has risen 11% year-to-date, after rising more than 150% in 2023. However, Bitcoin is still about 28% from its all-time high of $68,990** hit in November 2021.
According to Dow Jones market data, among the spot bitcoin ETFs, the gray-level bitcoin trust (GBTC-US) **56% to close at 44$86; BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT-US) is also **56% to close at 28$66; Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC-US)57% to close at 4402 USD; The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB-US) closed 57% to 50$31.
Bitcoin ETFs are also Monday. ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO-US)**57%, to 23$82, Valkyrie Bitcoin & Ether Strategy ETF (BTF-US)**56% to 1561 USD.
Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, reported on Monday that the latest ** appears to be driven by demand in the spot market, and a large portion of this volume is likely to enter the market through spot ETFs to chase the positive trend over the weekend.
Mark Connors, head of research at digital asset manager 3IQ, pointed out that the outflow of funds from gray-level bitcoin trusts, the largest spot bitcoin ETF, has been slowing, and demand for rival bitcoin ETFs remains strong. He believes that in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, some investors also see Bitcoin as a potential safe haven.
Japan's ** Hurricane
In early trading today, Japan** also soared, continuing to hit a new high since 1990.
From the perspective of its structure, Tokyo Electron rose more than 10%, the highest since November 2022, after the company raised its fiscal year revenue**;SoftBank Group opened nearly 10% higher, rising sharply for the third consecutive day. The reason is that on Monday, the share price of chip design company ARM continued its hot rally, soaring 29% again, making the cumulative increase in the past three trading days close to 100%. Investors' pursuit of artificial intelligence (AI)** has made ARM another beneficiary. And SoftBank is the parent company of ARM. In addition, Sony and Toyota rose nearly 2%.
CITIC** believes that Japan's economic recovery is expected to be sustainable, and it can intervene in the short term to maintain the medium and long-term "overweight" proposal. Japanese stocks have led the global rally since the start of the year, mainly due to rising valuations. The short-term TOPIX dynamic P/E ratio is above the average since 2011, which is not cheap but is still in the reasonable midd. The upgraded version of the NISA system came into effect in January this year, and the upper limit of tax exemption for small investments was expanded to encourage individual investors to enter the market.
In addition, after the Bank of Japan's January 22-23 meeting, three key indicators to measure the momentum of Japanese inflation – wages, consumption and the Tokyo CPI – came in lower than expected. The weak data casts doubt on whether the 2% inflation target can be maintained, allowing the Bank of Japan to tighten policy in the coming months. Today, Japan once again announced that it will issue 1 trillion yen of 20-year government bonds on February 20.
A50
Today, what is more enlightening for the A** field is the sharp rise of the A50 in early trading. This morning, the index rose by more than 15%。
The previous research report of China Merchants ** showed that similar to Bitcoin, RMB assets can hedge the over-issuance of G7 currencies to a certain extent, and the A50 index** has a high correlation with Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is a relatively pure variety that reflects liquidity, and its ** change has a certain leading effect on A50, and after 2017, Bitcoin has repeatedly advanced the A50 index sharply.
In addition, according to Everbright** research, the correlation coefficient between the pre-market rise and fall of the FTSE A50 Index** and the daily rise and fall of the A-share ** Index is 0Around 38, the probability of rising and falling with the same is as high as more than 62%. The correlation coefficient between the FTSE A50 Index** and the A-shares** Index in the morning is as high as 046 or above, the probability of rising and falling with the same is as high as 65%. The pre-market rise and fall of the FTSE A50 Index** is more indicative of the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks than that of A-shares. This is mainly due to the relatively high proportion of foreign investment in the Hong Kong market. The FTSE A50 Index** pre-market change is more indicative of the ** index than the mid- and mid-cap index.
Analysts believe that in reality, the current A** field is facing at least three favorable conditions: first, with the rise of artificial intelligence, a new industrial cycle has emerged; Second, from the perspective of the trend of virtual currency, the new dollar cycle is gradually approaching; Third, after the fluctuations in early February, the short-selling momentum of the A** field has significantly weakened, and the micro-liquidity margin of the pre-holiday market has improved significantly. These favorable conditions may become a boost for A-shares** in the future.
*:* Times Brokerage China (Shi Qian).