After the year-end sprint in 2023, what will be the sales volume of joint venture auto brands in 2024?
Recently, a number of joint venture brands announced their sales in January. Although compared with the low base of the same period in 2023, many joint venture brands have seen significant year-on-year growth. However, due to the "overdraft" in December last year, most joint venture brands experienced a significant month-on-month decline.
Among them, the most embarrassing is GAC's Japanese "Liangtian", especially GAC Toyota, which is regarded as the "pillar" of the Japanese system, not only fell by more than 30% year-on-year in January, but also almost "halved" month-on-month, and had a difficult start to the year.
What is the prospect of the joint venture brand in China? The industry generally believes that in 2024, when new energy vehicles are more violently impacted, the living space of joint venture brands will be further compressed. Some institutions even shouted that "the first war may open the prelude to the joint venture brand".
Why are some brands growing so much year-on-year?
Since February, a number of listed car companies, including Dongfeng Group, SAIC, GAC Group, and Changan Automobile, have disclosed their vehicle sales in January, including their joint venture brands. Interestingly, the sales of a number of joint venture brands increased by double digits year-on-year, among which Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan, and Changan Mazda even doubled their monthly sales.
According to the data, Dongfeng Nissan's sales in January reached 7550,000 units, an increase of 116 compared to the same period in 202375%, Dongfeng Honda, which is also in the Dongfeng camp, also achieved 6Monthly sales of 510,000 units increased by 113 year-on-year26%。
The same can be said for Changan Mazda, a joint venture brand that sold 9,208 units in January, up 128 percent year-on-year83%。And SAIC Volkswagen, a subsidiary of SAIC Motor, achieved 9510,000 units were sold, up 32% year-on-year.
Why did the joint venture brand focusing on fuel vehicles make a "comeback" in January? "The Spring Festival holiday in 2023 is in January, resulting in a low sales base in January of that year, and January this year is less affected by the holiday, and the year-on-year growth in sales of joint venture brands is deserved. Lin Xi, Secretary General of the China-Europe Association for Intelligent Connected Vehicles, analyzed.
In fact, the sharp year-on-year growth has also happened in new energy vehicle brands. Compared with the same period last year, Li Auto's monthly sales increased by 106% year-on-year, Aion's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, and Zeekr and Leap increased by 302% and 978% year-on-year respectively.
In addition, in Lin Xi's view, there are also policy factors that promote the growth of sales of joint venture brands. He said that the adjustment of the purchase tax on new energy vehicles has caused some consumers to shift to the traditional fuel vehicle market, which may explain the sudden recovery in sales of joint ventures that mainly sell fuel vehicles.
It's too early to talk about "turning over".
However, it is too early to assert that the joint venture brand has "turned over". Compared with the sales volume in December last year, most joint venture brands fell sharply month-on-month.
Among them, Changan Mazda's sales reached 1 in December last year10,000 units, down 16% month-on-month in January5%；SAIC Volkswagen achieved 14260,000 units sold, in comparison, the results in January this year fell 33% month-on-month31%。
The most embarrassing thing is GAC's Japanese "Liangtian", which is almost "cut in half" compared with the previous month. Among them, Guangqi Honda's sales in January were 3530,000 units, down 55% from December last year61%。Even compared with the low base in January last year, Guangqi Honda also fell by 75%。GAC Toyota, which has always played the role of the "leader" of the Japanese system, only sold 510,000 units, down 4764%, a year-on-year decline of 3241%。
SAIC-GM, a subsidiary of SAIC, was in a similar situation, selling 360,000 units, down 34 percent year-on-year55%。Compared with December last year, SAIC-GM's sales in January fell by 61% month-on-month78%。
From the perspective of the industry, in the face of the impact of new energy vehicles, the vigorous development of joint venture brands at the end of last year led to sales overdraft, making "month-on-month decline" the main theme in January this year. According to the data recently released by the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands in January were 670,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43% and a month-on-month decrease of 15%.
More importantly, although the year-on-year sales of individual joint venture brands have "picked up", it has not changed the trend of declining market share. According to the data of the passenger association, the retail share of German brands in January was 192%, and the share decreased by 3 percent year-on-year8 percentage points, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 167%, flat year-on-year. The retail share of the U.S. brand market was 65%, down 1 percent year-on-year3 percentage points.
The pressure remained high during the year
How will the joint venture brand focusing on fuel vehicles face the more violent impact of new energy vehicles in 2024? This is a question that every joint venture brand cannot avoid.
In the eyes of the industry, due to the significant battery-grade lithium carbonate, it is expected that the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles will continue to decline, which also provides more room for new energy vehicle companies to reduce prices. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 13 million units, with a penetration rate of more than 40%, indicating that the market potential is huge and the competition is becoming more and more fierce.
Ping An ** expects that in 2024, the "** war" led by the head new energy vehicle companies will continue, especially in the mainstream ** belt of 100,000 yuan and 200,000 yuan. In fact, in January this year, the first war has started between new energy vehicle companies. In the eyes of the market, the price reduction and involution of new energy vehicles will further squeeze the fuel vehicle market.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Market Information Association, expects that the pressure on joint venture car companies will still be great for the rest of the year, mainly due to the poor transition to new energy. CICC also believes that joint ventures, which are currently large in scale but slow in the transition to electrification, will face a severe test.
Joint venture brand or gradually cleared?
In recent years, the sales of some weak joint venture brands have continued to decline off a cliff, in the eyes of the industry, the fundamental reason is that the dividends of the domestic joint venture model are fading, the technical barriers to the traditional powertrain established by joint venture car companies no longer exist, and electric intelligence has become the basis for differentiated competition of car companies.
According to CICC's analysis, some joint venture brands first disagree on the electrification route. For traditional auto giants, the fuel vehicle business is equivalent to a "profit center", these giants rely on the powertrain based on the internal combustion engine to build technical barriers and obtain excess profits, but the electric vehicle business is equivalent to a "cost center".
According to the agency's analysis, traditional car companies excessively magnify the importance of short-term profits and ignore the urgency of electrification transformation, so joint venture brands are reluctant to completely abandon the fuel vehicle platform when choosing the electrification technology route. "For example, Toyota adheres to the development path of electrification of oil hybrid, plug-in hybrid, pure electric and hydrogen fuel at the same time, and establishes long-term competitive advantages with mature and leading hybrid technology, and forms path dependence. ”
On the other hand, joint venture brands are also limited by a long decision-making chain, and new models usually need to be designed at overseas headquarters first, and then adapted and developed in the Chinese market, which affects the launch progress of electric vehicle products.
In the eyes of many industry insiders, the prelude to the liquidation of joint venture brands has begun. Since 2023, GAC FCA and GAC Mitsubishi have been declared out.
CICC believes that the joint venture brand will face three ways out: First, firmly accelerate the transformation of electric intelligence and formulate a development strategy to adapt to the Chinese market. Second, we will develop new models of cooperation with Chinese automakers and make up for shortcomings in electric vehicle platforms, intelligent driving, and intelligent cockpits. Third, withdraw from the Chinese market.
The agency expects that if the new energy sales of the joint venture brand do not improve, it may be gradually cleared from weak to strong in the order of "tail joint venture brand, second-tier joint venture brand, first-tier joint venture brand and second-tier luxury brand first-line luxury brand".
*: Wen Xi, reporter of China's ** newspaper.