Wang Xing, the owner of Meituan, is very fond of a book called "The Game of Finite and Infinite".
You can take a look during the Chinese New Year, saying that all human activities can be disassembled into games again and again.
And there are two types of games in this category – finite and infinite.
The former aims to win, and defeating the opponent is considered a victory; The purpose of the latter is to continue the game, that is, every player who participates in the game must continue to play the game.
In the past few years, the market was willing to give Meituan a high valuation, because it took a fancy to Wang Xing's ability to attack in various fields and fight an infinite war.
Nowadays, when we look at the development of public offerings**, especially ETFs, we do have a bit of infinite war.
100 billion ETFs are one super and two strong
Last year, I wrote in an article titled "The Great Migration: Every Round** of Alphabets" that ETFs are a very suitable variety for bear markets, and may be especially suitable in markets such as A-shares, where bulls are short and bears are long.
When the market is performing well, active equity and star managers do have a lot of stories to tell, and there are also many successful stock selection cases to be explored.
But the so-called profit and loss homology, when the upward trend of the market is interrupted, the story of the star manager being given will also become a drag, especially in some styles of the more exposed ** manager, the net value of the sharp drawdown will naturally make people wonder if the party ** is still working.
In contrast, ETFs require investors to make fewer judgments and perform poorly, but as long as you trust common sense, be sure of the future, and choose a core broad-based ETF, the final result may not be too bad.
In short, choosing an ETF is pure.
But this round at the beginning of this year** has left me with some doubts about whether ETFs can continue to grow.
Because such a rapid ** really destroyed the confidence of the vast majority of friends**, and only 5-6 people like Beiluo still have bullets.
Therefore, I used to think that if the market continues this year, the first-class ETF and other weight-bearing products will face greater pressure,—— until the national team turns the tide.
After focusing on the CSI 300 and SSE 50, the 100 billion ETF club was Huatai Pineapple's CSI 300 ETF (510300), and finally two new players were born - ChinaAMC's SSE 50 ETF (510050) and E Fund's CSI 300 ETF E Fund (510310).
Behind them, Harvest's CSI 300 ETF (159919) has also stood at the 90 billion mark, and in the near future, it will most likely be among the 100 billion.
The latest size of the largest S&P500ETF (SPDR) in the United States is 480.8 billion US dollars, and we will not consider the scale of the exchange rate conversion of ** RMB, let's just say that as the world's second largest capital market, it is reasonable to have several RMB ETFs with a volume of 100 billion yuan.
Behind these hundreds of billions of ETFs, we may be able to get a glimpse of some of the ways in which public offerings play "infinite war" in the ETF field.
Infinite Warfare: Scale, Tools, First Mover Advantage & Rates
In 2012, Harvest, Huaxia, and Huabai all successively launched the CSI 300 on-exchange index**, and until 2018, the scale of these products was not much different.
However, in the bear market in 2018, Huabai's CSI 300 successfully achieved the scale to the top, after which the advantages of the ETF powerhouse Hengqiang began to appear.
After the listing of CSI 300 option tools on December 23, 2019, the scale has become larger and larger, and today, the volume of 200 billion is also worth looking forward to.
Huabai entered the scale of 100 billion yuan after ChinaAMC's SSE 50 ETF, the first ETF of A-shares, which to some extent represents the first-mover advantage of traditional indexes**.
At that time, the leadership team of Huaxia ** prepared for 3 years before and after designing the A-share ETF, and went to Wall Street to learn from the design and operation experience of the "ETF", and the product was listed in 2005.
So before the rise of the CSI 300 ETF, the SSE 50 ETF was once the largest ETF product.
In the past, ETFs were still a very scarce variety, investors could not choose many products, and the overall scale was average, and the first issuance position played a very important role.
But now we all know that the variety of ETFs has been greatly enriched, and compared with the first-mover advantage, what will compete more in the future is the comprehensive operation ability and maintenance ability of the company.
And investors also have new considerations, such as investment costs, such as rates.
E Fund is a representative of relying on a low-fee strategy to catch up in ETFs.
CSI 300 ETF E Fund has no advantage in the establishment time, and the initial offering scale is also very small, but the bull is the first to reduce the operating fee to 02%, which is 04%, which can save 40 million yuan a year for the national team's tens of billions of funds, and for our ordinary Xiaosan, you can save half a year by buying 100,000 yuan.
Under E Fund's fee reduction offensive, how will other ** companies respond?
This morning, ICBC Credit Suisse issued an announcement that ICBC CSI 300 (510350) and OTC Connection** announced a fee reduction, and the comprehensive rate was also reduced to 02%, which is certainly good news for investors.
A brief review of history can also find that our public offering ** has indeed undergone a very positive, even earth-shaking evolution in the past ten years.
Therefore, the practitioners and participants of the public offering industry, we still have to have confidence in our own industry, there will always be pains in development, but we should learn lessons from the problem, the future is bright, but the road is still tortuous.
Riches are reserved for those who are prepared
Today, the big money finally injected some liquidity into the CSI 2000, and the related CSI 2000 and CNI 2000 ETFs once touched the daily limit, which is the legendary "short squeeze".
In this wave of CSI 2000, Huatai Pineapple's CSI 2000 ETF (563300) has become the biggest winner, because this product is the most liquid of the current stock of CSI 2000 products.
After the CSI 2000 was cold at the beginning and the scale was reduced, many CSI 2000s were basically in a state of no one caring, and even struggling in the liquidation line.
Similarly, the CSI 500 ETF (510500) and CSI 1000 ETF (512100) of the Southern ** have exceeded 66 billion and 20 billion as of February 7, and are undoubtedly the big winners of these two indexes.
Recently, I have also felt that the advantages of these ETF manufacturers are not in vain, and they are all obtained by relying on foresight and dedication beyond the market.
Sometimes you have to do things that don't make sense in the short term, or even have no reward.
When the opportunity comes, it's only you who are there, so you're the only one who can earn it.
Even if you have a lot of wealth, you have to have a basin, right?
When we invest, we always say, don't leave the table easily, you have to be there when the so-called lightning falls.
In the past few days, the fierce ** of the market has swept away the pessimistic atmosphere of the previous few days, so that friends with short positions feel a little bit of the taste of being forced to short.
In fact, we do short-term market in the future, the winning rate is actually very low, and the ideal state is to do a good job in the direction of their own determination, and then ignore the noise and stick to it.
Tomorrow Chinese New Year's Eve, here I wish you all a prosperous future (Dada), and hope that we can all make money next year.