How to respond to the bombing of the US military base and the heavy casualties, the United States ** Biden is in a dilemma; On one side is the Republicans desperately trying to arch the fire, and on the other side is the prohibitive quagmire of war. For Biden, no matter what he chooses, the geopolitical policy of the United States in the Middle East can be regarded as coming to an end.
According to **, the U.S. military is still investigating why it was not able to intercept the drone in time; Preliminary investigation results indicate that a U.S. drone was preparing to return at the time, and the base turned off the protection system, causing the attacker's drone to take advantage of the loophole. No matter what the final outcome is, Biden needs to have a response to this matter, and after leaving a harsh word, the United States has unified its voice and declared that it "will not seek war with Iran."
That puts the Republicans out of the way. Senator Graham demanded "direct strikes on all Iranian targets," Cotton declared that "the only response is devastating military retaliation against Iran," and Trump came out to mock Biden as "weak, capitulationist, and a terrible tragic consequence."
To put it simply, the attitude of the Republican Party is the same as that of many people who eat melons, and they are not afraid of big things when they watch the excitement; But Biden obviously has to "weigh it again", and everyone knows that a direct war with Iran is the next step. Putting aside the fact that the U.S. military does not have such military preparations, even if it does, the U.S. military may have to face a war quagmire that is even more headache than Iraq and Syria, after all, Iran is not a weak country.
The White House announced that the United States is looking for a new balance: to ensure that the U.S. military can demonstrate deterrence and prevent such incidents from happening again, while at the same time ensuring that "the situation does not escalate"; According to Bloomberg, citing sources, the White House is currently focusing on two options: one is not to publicly retaliate against Iran, but to undermine Iran's regional interests through covert operations; The other is to follow the example of Soleimani, a senior general of the Revolutionary Guards, and carry out assassinations of certain Iranian military and political leaders in order to deter Iran.
As long as the US military aims its guns at Iran, whether it is an open gun or a hidden arrow, Iran will definitely retaliate and the regional situation will definitely escalate.
Can we recall when the Shiite militias in the Middle East targeted US military bases? Is it this Palestinian-Israeli conflict? No. Before the assassination of Soleimani by the U.S. military, the main adversaries of the Shiite militia were terrorist groups; After the assassination of Soleimani by the U.S. military, Shiite forces, including the Iraqi People's Protection Movement, began attacking the U.S. garrison.
Therefore, no matter how cautious Biden is, as soon as the US GI dies, as long as the US military has any response, regional tensions will inevitably escalate; Unless Biden completely admits his cowardice, puts aside the cruel words, turns around and leaves, and repeats a "Kabul" moment. At that time, the prestige of the US military will be wiped out again.
Therefore, Biden has no way to deal with Iran, but there is one ambition that the United States has never given up, and that is to mess up the Middle East. The main reason for the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is that the United States has no bottom line to cover it up, as well as providing a large amount of first-class ammunition, so that Israel feels that it can fight to the end; The main reason for the escalation of the Red Sea crisis is that Biden did not weigh the pros and cons, and directly launched air strikes from the ideological point of view, which led to the intensification of the Houthi counterattack; Now, the U.S. military itself is caught up in this quagmire, and it is still called "not wanting to escalate the situation"? Liar!
The United States deliberately stirs up the Middle East, and the motive is also obvious. The U.S. Middle East policy is reaching a dead end, and a decline in regional influence is inevitable. Only in the chaos of the Middle East can the United States find another opportunity to prevent China from using the Belt and Road Initiative to exert influence in the Middle East.
Biden has bad water in his stomach; The U.S. military may begin to make such preparations and completely disrupt the situation in the entire Middle East.