Financial reporter Zhang Tingwang.
At the beginning of the year, throw "king fried". This morning (February 20), the February LPR was released, and the LPR for more than 5 years fell to 395%。
This is a large rate cut, reaching 25 basis points, which is the largest rate cut on record in the history of the LPR. It is a great benefit for both new and existing buyers.
However, while the market was slightly surprised, I also observed a subtle change.
I don't know if you've noticedPrior to this, it had been three days since the start of the Year of the Dragon, and in the past few days, there have been no important statements or important decisions made by the top management regarding the real estate sector.
This situation is in stark contrast to the attitude of the high-level intensive deployment of related work before the Spring Festival.
Of course, it's not because of the "post-holiday syndrome", and the work state has not yet recovered. After the Spring Festival, the work of various departments is in full swing.
According to the information on the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, from February 18 to 19, at the beginning of the Spring Festival, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of symposiums to listen to opinions and suggestions from all parties on strengthening capital market supervision, preventing and resolving risks, and promoting the high-quality development of the capital market. It is understood that the China Securities Regulatory Commission held more than 10 forums in two days, of which Wu Qing, the new secretary of the party committee and chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, presided over two of them.
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On February 19, the State Administration of Financial Supervision held a meeting to mobilize and deploy the work of the new year, and proposed to "grasp the situation, drum up enthusiasm, and actively introduce policies and measures that are conducive to boosting confidence and expectations." ”
Another manifestation is that on the first working day after the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon, the "first meeting of the New Year" was held in many places across the country. It is worth noting that in this kind of conference with great weather vane significance, the figure of real estate also rarely appears.
According to incomplete statistics, on February 18, more than 10 provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, and Chongqing held the "First Meeting of the New Year", and Shanghai, Hunan and other provinces issued blockbuster documents on the same day.
Taking Guangdong as an example, real estate is an important topic at the first provincial high-quality development conference held in Guangdong in 2023. At that time, Daniel Zhang, deputy director of the Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Guangdong Province, stressed the need to vigorously promote housing consumption, actively support the demand for rigid and improved housing, steadily promote the debt risk resolution of individual housing enterprises, and optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing. At that time, senior executives of leading real estate companies such as Poly Development, Vanke Group, Country Garden, and China Resources Land were also invited to participate in the discussion of the sub-forum and were given the opportunity to speak.
At the 2024 conference, the relevant person in charge of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development did not speak on stage, and the topics of the five group discussions were not related to real estate, and the management of several leading real estate companies did not attend the meeting.
What causes this change?
We all know that the healthy development of the real estate market is of great significance to the stable operation of the macroeconomy. At present, the low pressure in the property market is still continuing.
According to CRIC data, in January 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will achieve sales of 2,350600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 342%, down 479%, a new low in recent years.
The sales scale of the top 100 real estate companies is still shrinking, which means to a certain extent that the property market still needs strong intervention.
On February 18, 2024, workers of China Railway Eighth Bureau were working at the construction site. *Xinhua.
But be carefulOne of the reasons for the shrinkage of the new housing market is the squeeze on the second-hand housing market.
Dong Jianguo, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that from January to November 2023, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the country reached 371%, an all-time high. At present, there are 7 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government in the country where the transaction volume of second-hand housing exceeds the transaction volume of new housing housing.
According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, if you look at the comprehensive new housing and second-hand housing together, it actually achieved positive year-on-year growth, which also shows that the housing demand is still stable, and there is no obvious contraction, but the transaction structure has changed, and the second-hand housing transaction has replaced some new housing transactions.
In fact, in July last year, the Politburo had already positioned China's real estate market - the relationship between supply and demand has undergone major changes.
Therefore,From this point of view, the current property market situation is in line with expectations. However, after several years of rapid development in real estate, the market's perception has not changed rapidly.
On the other hand, the "downturn" on the demand side is a comprehensive and objective reflection of the current weak expectations of residents' income and employment, in other words, everyone is afraid and unwilling to buy a house because of reduced income and unstable income.
The current consensus is basically this: a good economy can boost confidence and expectations, and real estate can also get rid of the label of "lagging behind".
At the first meeting of the new year, the enthusiasm of "sprinting at the beginning" in various places is not exactly the proper meaning of supporting the stabilization of real estate?
Moreover, the Spring Festival holiday just past, from consumption to tourism, from the movie box office to market sentiment, all released a positive signal of China's economic recovery.
The data shows that consumption during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 is hot. In terms of tourism, the number of trips and the amount of consumption exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. In terms of movies, the total box office of the Spring Festival stalls reached 801.6 billion, with a total of 16.3 billion, the three key data of box office, moviegoers and screenings have all hit a new high in Chinese film history.
On February 18, 2024, tourists spent and played at the Qingdao Radish Lantern Festival and Sugar Ball Festival. *Xinhua.
The credit data behind consumption is off to a good start, which also confirms the positive trend of the national economy at the beginning of the year.
The incremental performance of loans in January was higher than market expectations, reflecting the strengthening of the vitality of the real economy and the advance deployment of investment and production by enterprises. At the same time, the transmission effect of financial data is significant, which can continue to boost market confidence and improve social expectations.
Even so, real estate in 2024 is still a key variable affecting investment and consumption, and maintaining the smooth operation of the real estate market is not only a need for stable growth, but also an inherent requirement for risk prevention, so it is the top priority of economic work.
Therefore, the focus of future policies should be greater on the demand side. The 5-year LPR rate cut of 25 basis points is a very good positive for the demand side.
The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author).